NHL Betting 2013-2014: Reverse Line Movements

PStrangers · 10-03-13, 10:20 PM

2-0 +$235

Nice start for the season. My kings got a shootout win as well! Great night!

hockey216 · 10-04-13, 01:13 AM

interesting

psyguy · 10-04-13, 07:37 AM

I like the idea should work with most sports. Where are you getting the information for the betting trends?
Cheers

stratospro · 10-04-13, 08:19 AM

I am interested in this too. Where are you getting the trend info?

geezir · 10-04-13, 08:37 AM

I´ve checked all my hockeybets from last season:
after 280 plays closing line was beaten for 2% in average but my real ROI was -6%, so I think line movement isn`t important when you`re betting NHL.

PStrangers · 10-04-13, 12:30 PM

What are the rules for posting links in the forum? I think I've gotten in trouble in the past for posting direct links. Regardless, a quick google search of "public betting percentages" comes up with more than 4 options to choose from.

Originally posted by geezir

I´ve checked all my hockeybets from last season:
after 280 plays closing line was beaten for 2% in average but my real ROI was -6%, so I think line movement isn`t important when you`re betting NHL.

Although this is an interesting data point, it is not the same spirit of a reverse line movement. The expectation is that even for the closing line, the bet is going to win at a higher percentage than needed to break even.

If a line opened at -200 and moved to -220 at game time, sure you beat the closing line, but it might have been a bad bet at -200 and a worst bet at -220. Books can be moving the lines based on the *ACTION* they get, that doesn't mean the closing line is always the right odds for the game.

PStrangers · 10-04-13, 03:29 PM

Sides:

No Play today

Totals:

Wings at Canes
Percentages of Bets on the Under: 30% / 31% / 24% / 31%
Opening line of the Under: 5.5 (-105) / 5.5 (+100) / 5.5 (+100) / 5.5 (-105)
Current line of the Under: 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-117) / 5.5 (-115)

Method A and B: Bet $115 at -115 on the Under 5.5

odog11 · 10-04-13, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by PStrangers

Sides:

No Play today

Totals:

Wings at Canes
Percentages of Bets on the Under: 30% / 31% / 24% / 31%
Opening line of the Under: 5.5 (-105) / 5.5 (+100) / 5.5 (+100) / 5.5 (-105)
Current line of the Under: 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-117) / 5.5 (-115)

Method A and B: Bet $115 at -115 on the Under 5.5

Good stuff my man.

PStrangers · 10-04-13, 10:02 PM

Day total
1-0 +$100

YTD
3-0 +$335

Can't say too much of any system 3 plays into it, but obviously being 3-0 is a good sign.

PStrangers · 10-05-13, 04:14 PM

Lots of games today, so I'm not too surprised that this lead to a big card. I must admit, some of these are kind of tough today. The Pathers/Oilers games don't surprise me, I think there is a value to be had on both of those. The Sharks look so great at home, and even though the coyotes looked so good (against in my opinion a weak Rangers team), I don't know if they can go on the road here and get a win. The unders were a bit of a surprise too. The Caps/Stars are 8-2 on the over in there last 10 games together, but 7-3 on the under when playing at home, so I guess there might be some value there. Less surprised at the Blots/Hawks under, I don't see the Bolts putting much up on the score board.

Anyways, good luck all.

Sides:

Panthers at Blues
Percentages of bets on the Panthers: 23% / 21% / 17% / 10%
Opening line of the Panthers: +183 / +195 / +195 / +180
Current line of the Panthers: +176 / +170 / +175 / +165

Method A and B: Bet $100 at +170 on the Panthers

Oilers verse Cancucks
Percentages of bets on the Oilers: 34% / 29% / 17% / 14%
Opening line of the Oilers: +139 / +138 / +130 / +135
Current line of the Oilers: +131 / +126 / +125 / +125

Method A and B: Bet $100 at +125 on the Oilers

Coyotes verse Sharks
Percentages of bets on the Coyotes: 18% / 21% / 40% / 33%
Opening line of the Coyotes: +139 / +138 / +139 / +135
Current line of the Coyotes: +127 / +128 / +128 / +130

Method A and B: Bet $100 at +130 on the Coyotes

Totals

Blue Jackets at Islanders
Percentages of Bets on the Under: 29% / 18% / 12% / 2%
Opening line of the Under: 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-104) / 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-110)
Current line of the Under: 5.5 (-119) / 5.5 (-118) / 5.5 (-120) / 5.5 (-120)

Method A and B: Bet $120 at -120 on the Under 5.5

Bolts at Hawks
Percentages of Bets on the Under: 12% / 8% / 4% / 4%
Opening line of the Under: 5.5 (+110) / 5.5 (+110) / 5.5 (+105) / 5.5 (+110)
Current line of the Under: 5.5 (-104) / 5.5 (+104) / 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-105)

Method A and B: Bet $105 at -105 on the Under 5.5

Caps verse Stars
Percentages of Bets on the Under: 21% / 21% / 23% / 14%
Opening line of the Under: 5.5 (+105) / 5.5 (+120) / 5.5 (+113) / 5.5 (+110)
Current line of the Under: 5.5 (-105) / 5.5 (+100) / 5.5 (-1102 / 5.5 (-110)

Method A and B: Bet $105 at -105 on the Under 5.5

jawnzer · 10-05-13, 04:31 PM

Like the looks of this so far, going to tail you on a few and hope to see the results as well. Been pounded this year so far on NHL.

Going to be a big one if the panthers come through.

PStrangers · 10-05-13, 04:45 PM

Yeah, always a bit hard to take the +170 dog. I have a feeling some sharps saw some value on this line. Hard to say the blues win this game 64% of the time.

The blues typically have a bit of a hard time scoring on good defense/goalie combos. That said, the panthers are near the bottom of my power rankings though and the blues are damn near the top. I don't really see how you can't set the line at +170, the Panthers obviously deserve to be a big dog, but maybe not +170.

PStrangers · 10-06-13, 12:15 AM

Buried on the sides and perfect on the totals. So far the totals are 5-0 and the sides are 1-3, perhaps saying something, but perhaps not. With home teams going 8-3 today might be saying that its a bit early in the season for these teams to get road wins.

Day total
3-3 +$0

YTD
6-3 +$335

PStrangers · 10-06-13, 03:48 PM

Sides:

No Play today

Totals:

Flyers at Canes
Percentages of Bets on the Under: 38% / 34% / 36% / 31%
Opening line of the Under: 5.5 (+115) / 5.5 (+110) / 5.5 (+119) / 5.5 (+115)
Current line of the Under: 5.5 (-105) / 5.5 (-105) / 5.5 (-106) / 5.5 (-105)

Method A and B: Bet $105 at -105 on the Under 5.5

PStrangers · 10-06-13, 05:03 PM

Totals:

Ducks at Jets
Percentages of Bets on the Under: 35% / 30% / 22% / 14%
Opening line of the Under: 5.5 (+110) / 5.5 (+115) / 5.5 (+110) / 5.5 (+110)
Current line of the Under: 5.5 (-110) / 5.5 (-108) / 5.5 (-105) / 5.5 (-110)

Method A and B: Bet $110 at -110 on the Under 5.5

MatI · 10-06-13, 07:09 PM

Nice work

PStrangers · 10-06-13, 11:45 PM

Day total
2-0 +$200

YTD
8-3 +$535

hockey216 · 10-06-13, 11:45 PM

you realize this might not be reverse line movement. it could be public/sharp split. just because % of bets on one side doesn't mean the money is necessarily on that side. In sports sometimes 70% of bets on one side, but more money is on the other side because the sharps bet bigger. you will probably be going with the sharps/bigger betters with this strategy which seems nice... but just because higher % of bets on one side and line moving other way doesn't mean its reverse line movement... the sharps could just be betting huge and most of the money could be on one side, despite the higher % of bets on the other side. but system seems plausible to go with the sharps on the sharp public splits.

PStrangers · 10-07-13, 03:59 AM

Originally posted by hockey216

but just because higher % of bets on one side and line moving other way doesn't mean its reverse line movement

Indeed this is the very definition of a reverse line movement.

Reverse line movement: Line movement that takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

I am unaware of any other definition of a reverse line movement. How do you define a reverse line movement?

In the thread that this discussion of reverse line movements started I did a more in-depht discussion of reverse line movements. I will copy/paste it in the next post.

But you are certainly correct, just because 70% of the wagers are on one side, doesn't mean there is more money on that side. The whole idea with reverse line movements is to be betting with the sharps on the sharp public splits.

PStrangers · 10-07-13, 04:02 AM

Betting reverse line movements can be very profitable, you just have to know

1. What is a reverse line movement?
2. Why a reverse line movement happens?
3. Why reverse line movements still lose?

1. What is a reverse line movement?

As most of you know, a reverse line movement is when the majority of wagers (the percentage of bets) is greater on one side, but the line moves to make betting on this team more favorable.

I. E. The Flyers open as a -134 favorite against the Maple Leafs. 64% of the wagers are on the Flyers, but the Flyers move to a -125 favorite.

2. Why a reverse line movement happens?

There are two reasons why reverse line movements happen.

A. Some books (mostly in Las Vegas) prefer to have as balanced of action as possible, and by balanced I mean in total amount wagers, not number of bets. Las Vegas books will routinely take smaller profits for lower total risk. If the book achieves balanced action, they get the juice and make money regardless of thew inner. Therefore, they move the line based on the dollar amount of action taken, not on the number or wagers.

I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book takes $20,000 worth of action at the Leafs +124 and $10,000 worth of action on the Flyers -134. Right now if the Leafs win, the book loses money. Therefore, it moves the line to -125 in hope that more betters will bet the Flyers. Since they don't give a damn about the number of betters, the reverse line movement gives you information about how much money is bet on each side.

B. Some books (most online books) are willing to take short term losses if it increases their long term gain. Therefore, they don't try to balance the book but instead look for an edge. These books track there winning and losing sports betters. If the majority of winning players are on a particular side they move the line to try to get increased action on the team their winning players are expecting to lose.

I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book sees that 5 of there clients who routinely win have bet the Leafs at +124 where 5 of their losing clients have bet the Flyers at -134. The books is greedy and in an effort to increase it's profit, moves the line to -125, effectively placing a wager on the Leafs to win.

3. Why reverse line movements still lose?

There are multiple reasons why reverse line movements will happen, and many do not mean they should be bet.

A. The classic example is the "Max Bet". Mr. Millionaire is in Las Vegas for the weekend. He is from Houston and loves the Texans. He places a $100,000 max bet on the Texans +7. The book had taked 70% of its action on the 9ners to cover the -7, including 5 winning sports players. But, they have no desire to have such lopsided action, so they move the Texans to +6.5. However, this does not mean the Texans are a good bet.

B. The next example came frequently last year during the NFL. Sharp betters can by systematically wrong. Road fav. of -3.5 to -6 covered at a huge percentage last year. There were numerous games which had reverse line movement on the home dog, but the road fav. kept covering. Even sharp betters are usually only winning ATS 57-60% of the time.

C. Game time changes. You don't look at the news and see that 64% of the bets are on the Flyers and the line moved from -134 to -125. So you bet the Leafs due to the reverse line movement. As it turns out, Claude Giroux is out with a concussion. The line moved due to a change in the game, nothing to do with the action taken of it. In this case, the Leafs would not be considered a good bet.

Hope all that made sense.

Kevin910 · 10-07-13, 08:59 AM

Very valuable information. Thanks

jawnzer · 10-07-13, 09:56 AM

Awesome information, thanks.

TheGambl3r · 10-07-13, 02:56 PM

Hey Pstrangers, was wondering, based on the reverse linemovements what would you bet on?
example, lets say its Toronto vs. Edmonton. and the line is -120 for the Leafs and 60% bet on the leafs but the line goes up to -105, would you bet on the Edmonton Oilers then?

PStrangers · 10-07-13, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by TheGambl3r

Hey Pstrangers, was wondering, based on the reverse linemovements what would you bet on?
example, lets say its Toronto vs. Edmonton. and the line is -120 for the Leafs and 60% bet on the leafs but the line goes up to -105, would you bet on the Edmonton Oilers then?

This is correct. If 60% of the bets are on the Leafs, but the line moves from -120 to -105, this suggests that bigger money or sharp money is on Oilers and I would then bet the Oilers.

geezir · 10-07-13, 06:11 PM

I wonder who you`re sources are, is there an open database or something that shows how much money is on each line?

BlackDog · 10-07-13, 06:14 PM

Better question is are there any picks for tonight. Good ole west coast swing.

PStrangers · 10-07-13, 06:22 PM

Sides:

No Play today

Totals:

Looking like a no play today as well. There was what was looking like some reverse line movement on the Rangers/King under, but some sources have the betting percentage on the under over 40%, making it a no play.

I'm off to the kings home opener. Laying the -150 on the kings just for fun (not an official play, nor will it be included in the record). A lot of people have always asked me about why books would release betting percentages if betting reverse line movements work. This is the perfect example why. I have a system that seems to be working (obviously, with 11 plays you can't say that it is for sure working). But I'm going to the Kings game, and I want to bet the Kings, so I will. Most people are losing bettors not because they cannot pick winners, but they can't manage there bankroll. And do stupid sh*t like betting their favorite teams. Why do you think sports books advertise on websites that sell picks? They know most people are just going to give back the money anyways.

Anyways, best of luck to you all.

PStrangers · 10-07-13, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by geezir

I wonder who you`re sources are, is there an open database or something that shows how much money is on each line?

Sports insights give the best data (but you have to pay for it). There are a bunch of other open databases, including right here on SBR. Just go to http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/ and then use your mouse to scroll over "OPENER" and you will see the percentages. Some websites are actually just proxy data. Meaning they aren't from real bets, but data collected from people betting things like "points" or free bets. I'm not 100% sure where the SBR percentages come from. If someone knows I'd be happy to know as well.

BlackDog · 10-07-13, 06:30 PM

Not going to lie but the fact that you aren't forcing a pick is awesome. Look forward to future days. Have fun at the kings game.

geezir · 10-07-13, 06:36 PM

thanks PStrangers. Although I was curious a few days ago, I really appreciate your work here but guess that was just I didn`t get the point of your system. Already found thespread- website, I`m still not comfortable with all this SBR functions though

hockey216 · 10-07-13, 06:37 PM

where do you get the % of bets info?

PStrangers · 10-07-13, 06:48 PM

I am always confused with the rules of this forum, so I won't post direct links because you guys should be able to find it easy enough. I have been using thespread, vegasinisder, pregame, freesportsbet, and SBR.

Freesportsbet is definitely a proxy (they aren't true bets) and I have a feeling SBR is what people have bet on points. That said, for the NFL I have seen remarkable similarity between the NFL consensus page (actually bets from a sports book) and the odds page.

Cranium · 10-08-13, 09:03 PM

Are you seeing a RLM on the NJ Devils tonight??

mcgeezer1883 · 10-08-13, 09:35 PM

Keep it up...I'm tailing ya

Just curious but where are you getting the info on totals? All I can find is ML