Playoff Chase Thread

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  • huntley
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-03-12
    • 155

    #1
    Playoff Chase Thread
    Playoff System

    Ive been doing this for a couple of years and its proved extremely successful. It is based on the principle that the better team in a series is not going to get swept by the worse team--pretty simple. It is set up similar to most chase systems with the goal being to win 1 unit over the course of 4 games. Once the one unit is won, the chase is over and there are no more bets on the playable team until the next series (assuming they advance and are still the favourite). I DO NOT play all the series, although I do believe it would be profitable to do so. Instead, I double my unit size on teams which I feel are likely to win one of their first 2 home games). A quick side note, as the rounds progress I will adjust the plays and the playable teams based on how teams are playing. It is usually quite easy to predict upsets once the first series is complete. For example, last years LA Kings would have bankrupt the system if one was to be stubborn and maintained that higher seed=better team. Play it straight up for the first round if you please, but I will list plays as I will bet them and as I have been successful doing so.

    Please be advised that although series VERY RARELY reach the third game, they do bets become quite substantial at that point so do not play an overly aggressive unit size if you are not set up to do so.

    Todays plays will be posted shortly.
  • huntley
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-03-12
    • 155

    #2
    April 30th

    Chase 1-Chi (2unit chase)
    Game 1 (Chi-1.434)-Bet 4.608U to win 2Units

    Chase 2-Ana (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Ana-1.740)-Bet 1.351U to win 1Unit

    Note-No chase on the LA/STL series.
    Comment
    • huntley
      SBR High Roller
      • 12-03-12
      • 155

      #3
      April 30th

      Chase 1-Chi (2unit chase)
      Game 1 (Chi-1.434)-Bet 4.608U to win 2Units

      Chase 2-Ana (1unit chase)
      Game 1 (Ana-1.740)-Bet 1.351U to win 1Unit

      Note-No chase on the LA/STL series.

      Chase Record 2-0 (+3Units)
      Comment
      • huntley
        SBR High Roller
        • 12-03-12
        • 155

        #4
        May 1st

        Chase 3-Bos (2unit chase)
        Game 1 (Bos-1.55)-Bet 3.604U to win 2Units

        Chase 4-Pit (2unit chase)
        Game 1 (Pit-1.427)-Bet 4.684U to win 2Units

        Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
        Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit

        Chase Record 2-0 (+3 Units)
        Comment
        • jonny2k4
          SBR Sharp
          • 03-02-13
          • 281

          #5
          Good job.. wish I would of followed from beginning!
          Comment
          • huntley
            SBR High Roller
            • 12-03-12
            • 155

            #6
            May 1st

            Chase 3-Bos (2unit chase)
            Game 1 (Bos-1.55)-Bet 3.604U to win 2Units

            Chase 4-Pit (2unit chase)
            Game 1 (Pit-1.427)-Bet 4.684U to win 2Units

            Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
            Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit

            Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
            Open Chases-1
            Comment
            • huntley
              SBR High Roller
              • 12-03-12
              • 155

              #7
              Don't have my computer but plays are on nyr and mon .. Both 1 unit
              Comment
              • huntley
                SBR High Roller
                • 12-03-12
                • 155

                #8
                May 2nd

                Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
                Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit

                Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)
                Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit

                Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
                Open Chases-3
                Game 2 Van-May 3rd
                Game 2 Mon-May 3rd
                Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
                Comment
                • huntley
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 12-03-12
                  • 155

                  #9
                  May 3rd

                  Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
                  Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit
                  Game 2-Awaiting Line

                  Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
                  Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
                  Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313 to win 2.282Units

                  Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
                  Open Chases-3
                  Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
                  Comment
                  • odog11
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-14-11
                    • 3874

                    #10
                    Do you ever consider bailing when it looks like you have picked the wrong team as the better team? I think with Luongo in net for the Nucks they are not the better team.
                    Comment
                    • huntley
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-03-12
                      • 155

                      #11
                      Originally posted by odog11
                      Do you ever consider bailing when it looks like you have picked the wrong team as the better team? I think with Luongo in net for the Nucks they are not the better team.
                      Consider.. Yes, but I believe I have only actually done so once and it was after game 2 when the team got completely dismantled at home in back to back games. Agree with you that van got outplayed, and I could see San Jose ultimately winning this series, but I remain convinced that it is extremely unlikely that they do so via the sweep. Would appreciate your input after tonight's game.. It should give us a good idea of whether or not van is gonna roll over
                      Comment
                      • odog11
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-14-11
                        • 3874

                        #12
                        Originally posted by huntley
                        Consider.. Yes, but I believe I have only actually done so once and it was after game 2 when the team got completely dismantled at home in back to back games. Agree with you that van got outplayed, and I could see San Jose ultimately winning this series, but I remain convinced that it is extremely unlikely that they do so via the sweep. Would appreciate your input after tonight's game.. It should give us a good idea of whether or not van is gonna roll over
                        I think Vancouver should come out strong tonight and have the better of the 5 on 5 play, but a few other key points I always factor when capping, especially in the playoffs.

                        1. Which goalie is more likely to stand on his head and steal a game. Slight edge Sharks.

                        2. Which goalie is more likely to spit the bit and cost the team the game: One word: Luongo. Pretty big edge to the Sharks.

                        3. Special Teams. Edge to Sharks here too.

                        I agree that Sharks not very likely to sweep, but I think looking at this game by itself value is with the Sharks at +125.
                        Comment
                        • huntley
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-03-12
                          • 155

                          #13
                          Still waiting on Montreal line movement--line is steadily cimbing


                          Originally posted by odog11
                          I think Vancouver should come out string tonight and have the better of the 5 on 5 play, but a few other key points I always factor when capping, especially in the playoffs.

                          1. Which goalie is more likely to stand on his head and steal a game. Slight edge Sharks.

                          2. Which goalie is more likely to spit the bit and cost the team the game: One word: Luongo. Pretty big edge to the Sharks.

                          3. Special Teams. Edge to Sharks here too.

                          I agree that Sharks not very likely to sweep, but I think looking at this game by itself value is with the Sharks at +125.

                          All good food for thought, I appreciate the insight. Hopefully, for the sake of the system, urgency prevails tonight.
                          Comment
                          • huntley
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 12-03-12
                            • 155

                            #14
                            May 3rd-Mon line added

                            Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
                            Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit
                            Game 2 (Mon-1.751)-Bet 3.209U to win 2.41Units

                            Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
                            Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
                            Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units

                            Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
                            Open Chases-3
                            Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
                            Comment
                            • huntley
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-03-12
                              • 155

                              #15
                              May 3rd

                              Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
                              Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit
                              Game 2 (Mon-1.751)-Bet 3.209U to win 2.41Units

                              Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
                              Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
                              Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units

                              Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
                              Open Chases-2
                              Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
                              Comment
                              • huntley
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 12-03-12
                                • 155

                                #16
                                May 4th

                                Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)--Note 12:30pm est start time
                                Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
                                Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units

                                Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
                                Open Chases-2
                                Game 3-Van on May 5th
                                Comment
                                • huntley
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-03-12
                                  • 155

                                  #17
                                  May 4th

                                  Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)--Note 12:30pm est start time
                                  Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
                                  Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units

                                  Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
                                  Open Chases-2
                                  Game 3-Van on May 5th
                                  Comment
                                  • huntley
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 12-03-12
                                    • 155

                                    #18
                                    May 5th

                                    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
                                    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
                                    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
                                    Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units

                                    Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
                                    Open Chases-2
                                    Game 3-NYR on May 6th
                                    Comment
                                    • jonny2k4
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 03-02-13
                                      • 281

                                      #19
                                      I would reverse the chase on the Vancouver series.
                                      Comment
                                      • hockey216
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-20-08
                                        • 4583

                                        #20
                                        happened last year to canooks and is happening this year again to the canooks.
                                        Comment
                                        • huntley
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 12-03-12
                                          • 155

                                          #21
                                          May 5th

                                          Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
                                          Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
                                          Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
                                          Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units

                                          Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
                                          Open Chases-2
                                          Game 3-NYR on May 6th
                                          Game 4-VAN on May 7th
                                          Comment
                                          • huntley
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 12-03-12
                                            • 155

                                            #22
                                            May 6th

                                            Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)
                                            Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
                                            Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units
                                            Game 3 (NYR-1.719)-Bet 4.924Units to win 3.54 Units

                                            Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
                                            Open Chases-2

                                            Game 4-VAN on May 7th
                                            Comment
                                            • huntley
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-03-12
                                              • 155

                                              #23
                                              May 6th

                                              Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)
                                              Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
                                              Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units
                                              Game 3 (NYR-1.719)-Bet 4.924Units to win 3.54 Units

                                              Chase Record 6-0 (+9 Units)
                                              Open Chases-1

                                              Game 4-VAN on May 7th
                                              Comment
                                              • huntley
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-03-12
                                                • 155

                                                #24
                                                May 7th

                                                Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
                                                Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
                                                Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
                                                Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units
                                                Game 4 (Van-2.241) Bet 7.296U to win 10.288Units

                                                Chase Record 6-0 (+9 units)
                                                Comment
                                                • eXon
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                  • 973

                                                  #25
                                                  Good luck tonight, this chase system is looking good at the moment.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jaspegs
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 05-04-13
                                                    • 12

                                                    #26
                                                    Looks good. GL.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • huntley
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 12-03-12
                                                      • 155

                                                      #27
                                                      May 7th

                                                      Chase 5-Van (1unit chase) --:--
                                                      Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
                                                      Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
                                                      Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units
                                                      Game 4 (Van-2.241) Bet 7.296U to win 10.288Units


                                                      Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • huntley
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 12-03-12
                                                        • 155

                                                        #28
                                                        May 8th-No plays
                                                        Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)-tough break with Van got catch-up to do next round
                                                        Comment
                                                        • huntley
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 12-03-12
                                                          • 155

                                                          #29
                                                          May 9th
                                                          Going to chase some series till they finish out to recover some of what was lost in the Vancouver debacle. Looking at Pit, Bos and Chi to each win one of their remaining 3 games(with 2 at home).

                                                          Chase 8-Pit (2 Unit Chase)
                                                          Game 1(5) (Pit-1.467)-Bet 4.283U to win 2U

                                                          Chase 9-Chi (2Unit Chase)
                                                          Game 1(5)- (Chi-1.377)-Bet 5.306U to win 2U

                                                          Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • huntley
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 12-03-12
                                                            • 155

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by huntley
                                                            May 9th
                                                            Going to chase some series till they finish out to recover some of what was lost in the Vancouver debacle. Looking at Pit, Bos and Chi to each win one of their remaining 3 games(with 2 at home).

                                                            Chase 8-Pit (2 Unit Chase)
                                                            Game 1(5) (Pit-1.467)-Bet 4.283U to win 2U

                                                            Chase 9-Chi (2Unit Chase)
                                                            Game 1(5)- (Chi-1.377)-Bet 5.306U to win 2U

                                                            Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)
                                                            Adding Ottawa to list now that Carie Price is out for the rest of the series.

                                                            Chase 10
                                                            Game 1(5)- (Ott-2.140)-Bet 1.754U to win 2U
                                                            Comment
                                                            • huntley
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 12-03-12
                                                              • 155

                                                              #31
                                                              May 9th

                                                              Chase 8-Pit (2 Unit Chase)
                                                              Game 1(5) (Pit-1.467)-Bet 4.283U to win 2U

                                                              Chase 9-Chi (2Unit Chase)
                                                              Game 1(5)- (Chi-1.377)-Bet 5.306U to win 2U

                                                              Chase 10-Mon (2Unit Chase)
                                                              Game 1(5)- (Ott-2.140)-Bet 1.754U to win 2U

                                                              Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • huntley
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-03-12
                                                                • 155

                                                                #32
                                                                May 10th

                                                                Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
                                                                Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U

                                                                Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • huntley
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 12-03-12
                                                                  • 155

                                                                  #33
                                                                  May 10th

                                                                  Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
                                                                  Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U

                                                                  Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • huntley
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 12-03-12
                                                                    • 155

                                                                    #34
                                                                    May 12th

                                                                    Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
                                                                    Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U
                                                                    Game 2(6)- (Bos-1.757)-Bet 8.013U to win 6.066U

                                                                    Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • huntley
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 12-03-12
                                                                      • 155

                                                                      #35
                                                                      May 12th

                                                                      Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
                                                                      Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U
                                                                      Game 2(6)- (Bos-1.757)-Bet 8.013U to win 6.066U
                                                                      Game 3(7)- Awaiting Line Movement
                                                                      Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)

                                                                      Extremely torn on this one. Line seems outrageous given the fact the leafs have dominated (maybe not score but definitely play and chances) in the last two games. They have won 2/3 in this series in Boston so obviously they are dealing with the crowd. Reimer has been outstanding to say the least and Phil Kessel has even been spotted backchecking, on occasion. If the line move substantially I will look to continue with the chase, however if not, I am exploring how I will bury the invested ~12Units chases in round 2.
                                                                      Comment
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