Matt's Hockey Corner 2013 Condensed schedule........

[matt1216]

I'm torn on this game as well... Islanders have been really bad lately but Leafs are getting tired and it showed last night in the 3rd period. Think it may be even worse tonight.

The Ilanders havnt been too bad of late. The bumped into stiff competition. Hurricanes were desperate for a win.... The bruins were the bruins, they run over everyone. NYI had a nice win in Montreal putting up 4 goals. MTL is hard to score on at times. I think toronto is rpe for the picking tonight. NYI is rested and should carry the pace tonight. Nabakov has been solid of late. Things also balance out too.Torontos road record will probably dwindle a bit at the same tme i expect NYI's home record to get better as well. Toronto will probably start winning again on there next home stand to get that home record back up there.
With all the hockey being played and toronto having a 4 day layoff coming up, its like the night befor vacation, your mind isnt on where you currently are. I could be wrong but if you think statistically everybody would pound TOR at an even line -109.... Now your givng me +105 on TOR..... if i was the average fan i would slam them +105. I dont think the books wanna lose here and i think the books would be laughing if even half the public was on Tor.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Scanning tonight's card.

I do think based on the line on the leafs and knowing that public will likley analyze shallow stats, such as the Leafs' away record, it does seem to be a bit of a trap. Public is likely to look at the Islanders' home record and see this as a AWESOME opportunity to back the Leafs. Leafs off an emotional loss, and first game on the road, I agree that this is a good spot for the Islanders. What I can't do, is lay that kind of juice on the Islanders, regardless of the situation. I think they win, but -135 on them is a bit steep for me. I really hope this hits for you. BOL.

I have a couple of plays I like, but I have been running too cold over the past few days to feel they merit sharing.

[matt1216]

Picks for Feb 28th Con't:

Lightning@Rangers Rangers Over 2.5 goals -138

IMO rangers should score here. They put up 3 on the Winnipeg defence and Pavalec from about the middle of the 2nd period on. The Jets are on a roll and I also see there defence greater than TB'S defence. The Rangers cant fall too far back here, TB scores alot and Lundqvist didnt have a great game last time out. Unlike last game i think NYR will come out working hard right away as opposed to satarting after they were down 2-0. They know the puck fits in the net now. Tort's will have them ready from the get go here.


Sens@Bruins 1st Period Under 1.5 goals -135

Sens visit the Bruins. The Sens are very short handed as we all know. I believe goals for the Sens will be hard to come by tonight. The Sens top line will be playing against Chara tonight..... good luck. Bos is returning from a succesful road trip. I see the first period being a bit of a snooze fest on there part after a well done road trip. They know ottawa is short handed.I also see Ottwa continuing the physical battle right off the go.Ottawa is much more defensive minded ever since there scoring threat left. No matter who is in the net they seem to keep the puck out.. Boston should turn it up a notch come the second and third period.

Sens@Bruins Sens Under 2 goals -109

Theres not alot of times that you will see under 2 goals for a NHL club. We know Ottawa is hurting. Now they have to play one of the better goalies and a stiff defence. Boston has only let up 1 goal a game there last 3 games against solid offensive clubs. At worst i think this pushed. I think 3 goals is far fetched here.

Penguins@Hurricanes Hurricanes ML +125

The Hurricanes have been off and on of late but, i see them getting up for this game. They are 3rd in the southeast but barely. TB is right on there tail.Carolina will have all there reinforcements back for tonights game.... Including Skinner. Im not sure why Carolina is +125 here. Maybe the hgih ML is due to the 1st game back off a road trip. dosnt matter alot IMO. Pittsburg will look for a bounce back game tonight but Im not sure its gonna matter. They reall only have 1 line thats a major scoring threat. Infact if you match up the top players i think Carolina should be the bigger threat. Also Pitts D, has done nothing defensively recently. I think +125 is a steal here. Besides the Goals Pitt hasnt real played that well. 6 against vs philly. 6 against vs Florida.

Up to you guys but i also have Carolina over 2.5 goals here -123


Sabres@Panthers Sabres -105

Does the average Bettor place money on Florida just because they beat Pitt last game out. Like I said above Pitt hasnt played great of late. I think Florida maybe a little fragile after that win vs Pitt. Maybe a let down spot. I look at the matchup. Befor last games win for buffalo over TB, they real havnt done anything. I think this is a chance for Buffalo to quietly sneak up the standings. Miller has played well. Its the defense that scares me a bit. Myers did score last game wich is a good sign IMO. Confidence is a huge thing with some of these guys. That confidence could get him playing way better on defence. This team is also too good to not score forever. Pitt showed offensively that Florida still has alot of holes on defense. I dont think buffalo will kill the lamp tonight but maybe a 3-1 3-2 win I could see happening. This team is Wayyyy over due.

Blackhawks@Blues Blues -109

Ive been noticing the Blackhawks games recently,They havnt been scoring alot of goals. I get the feeling there playing not to win but not to lose in regualtion. They should be lighting the lamp more than they have been. Theres alot of presure to keep the streak going. Chicago just came of games against CBJ and EDM, now they play the BLUES. The Blues are many times diffrent than those two teams. There much bigger and there forecheck is insane. There not as fast as EDM but they play the body well. With Halack in net tonight this could be a tough game for Chicago. The Blues are well rested.... 5 days off. 3-0 game by the blues wouldnt suprise me at all. Hitchcock will have the team ready to play.

Wings@Sharks Sharks Over 2.5 goals -138

Wings are on a back to back plus they just came from the eastern timezone 2 days ago.Det showed there fatigue pretty much the entire 3rd period last night. LA continued to pressure and finally score the tieing goal and the winning goal. SJ for whatever reason plays way better at home. The pressure is on for SJ they need the wins. SJ should have scored 5 or 6 goals vs the Avalanche but Varlomov was Insane. Shouldnt have been close. 40+ shots from SJ. I wouldnt put it past Detroit to score a few goals here. There not a bad offense club, this is why i chose the Over 2.5 goals SJ.




Bol!

[matt1216]

Scanning tonight's card.

I do think based on the line on the leafs and knowing that public will likley analyze shallow stats, such as the Leafs' away record, it does seem to be a bit of a trap. Public is likely to look at the Islanders' home record and see this as a AWESOME opportunity to back the Leafs. Leafs off an emotional loss, and first game on the road, I agree that this is a good spot for the Islanders. What I can't do, is lay that kind of juice on the Islanders, regardless of the situation. I think they win, but -135 on them is a bit steep for me. I really hope this hits for you. BOL.

I have a couple of plays I like, but I have been running too cold over the past few days to feel they merit sharing.

LOL, YOUR RUNNING COLD......... I think it changes today man! keep the spirits up!!!

[matt1216]

I may have a play on the Wild/PHNX game later as well

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Oh by all means, a rough streak does not beat me up too bad. I usually make one to two bets max, so a two bet loss does not do too much damage to the bankroll. I am leaning AVS tonight, but haven't logged my bet in yet. I also lean DET SJ U 5.5, but hate to bet that much juice.

[jontebond]

Just for your info
"Besides the Goals Pitt hasnt real played that well. 6 against vs philly. 6 against vs Florida."
Both games has been crappy Vokoun who has played horrible.
However I like the value of Carolina. If I wasn't a pens fan I would be them as well bro!

Best of Luck

[matt1216]

Oh by all means, a rough streak does not beat me up too bad. I usually make one to two bets max, so a two bet loss does not do too much damage to the bankroll. I am leaning AVS tonight, but haven't logged my bet in yet. I also lean DET SJ U 5.5, but hate to bet that much juice.

I think duchene is still out for the Avs, jus a heads up. If gustavsson plays well for Det it may go under.

Bol!

[matt1216]

Just for your info
"Besides the Goals Pitt hasnt real played that well. 6 against vs philly. 6 against vs Florida."
Both games has been crappy Vokoun who has played horrible.
However I like the value of Carolina. If I wasn't a pens fan I would be them as well bro!

Best of Luck

Ya, I always have to avoid the Canucks. It's hard for me to stay away as I'm a big fan o them.


Bol!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Yah, his status is still unknown for tonight. I really just want to bet one solid play tonight.

[jontebond]

eh rotoworld saying that Matt D is playing tonight.

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nhl/177513/matt-duchene-%28groin%29-will-play-thursday-night

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Thanks Jonte. Do you have a strong lean on that game?

[jontebond]

Yeah I strongly believe Colorado will win.
* They are great at home.
* Lost 3 in a row, last game in OT against Sharks.
* Getting back their star player.
* Varlamov is better then MacDonald in goal.

[matt1216]

Isles 1
Blues 2
Avs 3

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Feels like I am rolling the dice, hoping for a 7.

Avs it is. This lost lamb needs this one bad. Need to get back to being a wolf.

[matt1216]

Feels like I am rolling the dice, hoping for a 7.

Avs it is. This lost lamb needs this one bad. Need to get back to being a wolf.

I hear ya man. Been a tough week for me as well. Live betting has kept my head above water for the week

[matt1216]

Picks for 28th feb cont:

Wild@coyotes under 5 -126

This should be a low scoring battle. The wild have moved after tonight about 4-5 different time zones in the past 2 weeks. Another flight out west should have them a little fatigued. Phnx just came off a big win and a 3 game road trip. This could be a bit of a letdown after beating Van. Both goalies have Allstar quality and I can see 3-1 either way.

The under 5 is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in phnx



Bol!

[amarius87]

thanks for the under 2 for sens!

[matt1216]

thanks for the under 2 for sens!

Ya man, no prob. Ottawa has a hard time I. General. Giving -109 for a push at the least is good odds. Glad it came thru

[kmc28]

man i can't believe the blues are screwing up this bad. columbus is definitely going to be a play tomorrow. money line or +1.5 im not sure yet.

[kmc28]

dude columbus is at +1.5 (-110) for me right now. i took that already.

[matt1216]

Today was definately better than the last 4 days have been. The Islanders and the Blues shit the bed again........ I guess i shouldnt be suprised with the isles, I think the books got burned on that play tho. SJ.... what a bunch of useless FCKS... cant even get 2 goals in regulation to give me an outside shot at 3 goals....

THANKS guys for the Avalnche pick.....glad they came back



Today: 6-4


Overall: 123-92-5



Bol!

[matt1216]

dude columbus is at +1.5 (-110) for me right now. i took that already.

Man, chi just isnt scoring alot of late but there goaltending has been stellar.

The under is 6-0 on fridays for chicago at home vs Western confrence teams over the last 2 years.

The under is a combined 3-0 for CBJ and CHI on fridays this year.

In general The under is 12-6 for chicago over the lat 2 years

CHI is 7-1 SU at home on fridays last 2 years.


Last friday the NHL was 3-0 for the under

All 3 Favorites won last friday


Bol

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I cannot believe the AVS won and Wings SJ stayed Under 5.5. 2-0...haven't felt that in a while

I am thinking about marinating on last night's success and taking tonight off. I am tempted to bet EDM. The Blues have had issues ever since they returned from their long road trip. Be it injuries or exhaustion, this team is not the same one that started the season. +155 is tempting.

[Huckleberry Pig]

I cannot believe the AVS won and Wings SJ stayed Under 5.5. 2-0...haven't felt that in a while

I am thinking about marinating on last night's success and taking tonight off. I am tempted to bet EDM. The Blues have had issues ever since they returned from their long road trip. Be it injuries or exhaustion, this team is not the same one that started the season. +155 is tempting.

Like the Oilers tonight as well. Both teams coming off B2B, Blue terrible at home recently. Oilers have played solid in their last 3. Great value too IMO

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Alright, Huck, 1 unit from last night on the Oilers. Hope to keep my monumentous streak alive

[Huckleberry Pig]

Alright, Huck, 1 unit from last night on the Oilers. Hope to keep my monumentous streak alive

lets get a W here

[matt1216]

Good luck guys ^^^ oilers ML has dropped .15cents over night so far

[Huckleberry Pig]

Good luck guys ^^^ oilers ML has dropped .15cents over night so far

thanks, what plays are you on tonight?

[matt1216]

thanks, what plays are you on tonight?

Well, unfortunately not te oilers...... the more and more i look at this game, i see EDM not doing so well.and ill explain in a few moments. yu never know tho ill post shortly.

[Huckleberry Pig]

Well, unfortunately not te oilers...... the more and more i look at this game, i see EDM not doing so well.and ill explain in a few moments. yu never know tho ill post shortly.

there's a reason vegas has the blues favored lol

[matt1216]

Picks for March 1st 2013:


Oilers@Blues Oilers under 2.5 goals -131 ST Louis Over 2.5 goals -129

2nd game of a back to back for both teams. Over the Past two years EDM on the road or at home after the first win of a back to back have gone on to lose the majority of there games. CLB in the second game of a back to back VS CBJ won 3-1 but were out shot 40-14......... against any medium to skilled team they would lose that. The oilers beat dallas last night 5-1, but dallas was coming off a road trip and it was Lehtonens first game back from the IR. Mentally as well when a team has dominated you over the years i truly believe it was just a straight up let down from dallas. Now Dubnyk has played well in the second game of a back to back over the last 2 years. not alot of goals allowed.
St louis is 5-1 on the over 2.5 goals when being shutout the night befor. Halak played great last night. he let up 3 goals but 2 of them went off skates and in the net, Chicago had no buisness scoring 3. shoulda been a 1-0 win CHI. ST louis i believe will play desperate for a win tonight, I dont see Halak having back to back terrible games. Especially in St louis. St louis just came off a 5 day lay off. thats alot of time off they were rusty and some what expected. St louis also beat CBJ 2-1 last home game. They lost to col 1-0 in OT and 2-1 at home vs San Jose. The loss in Colorado and San jose was DUE to MAJOR fatigue. I think St louis comes out firing tonight, They are very well rested. after 5 days off a back to back i doubt will have any relevance.


Bluejackets@Blackhawks Bluejackets Under 2 goals -113 Under 5.5 goals -133

Chicago goaltending has been stellar so far this year. Chicago looks like there just playing a bit more of a defensive slash cautious game.
Columbus is pretty injured + they have had a hard time scoring on the road. As chicago played last night im not sure either team will come out flying. Columbus may come out swinging but its hard to score when you lack hard in skill.

The Under is 6-0 for chicago over the last 2 years playing western confrence teams on a back to back.
Chicago is 12-6 on the under last 2 years on fri
CHI is 7-1 @ home on fridays last 2 years


There may be 1 more play for later, with the Min/ANA game





Bol!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

For me, I see it as a value play. If you take the expected percentage of the Oilers winning this game and then calculate estimated percentage at the price being offered, you can determine whether the play is justifiable. The key is that you use this principle over the course of the season. The price being offered does not reflect the true odds of winning, but what the public's perception of the outcome to be. There are a number of sites that predict percentage of a team winning, such as Masseyratings.com, which list the Oilers as having a 42% of winning. At the price of +157, I need to win 38% of the time. At the current odds of +152, I only need to win this bet 39.68% of the time. Of course, this hinges on my being able to make similar values plays over the course of the season.

[matt1216]

there's a reason vegas has the blues favored lol

i just think alot of guys will pound EDM due to there win last night 5-1 and the fact that they have been playing better. I just cant help to think about those games after they win the first one of a back to back. they seem to fall asleep almost happy that they won game 1. St louis really hasnt played that bad. They did look like a team that has been off for 5 straight days. rusty as shit. given the oppurtuninty to get right back to it. I think ST louis wins. not a blow out but 3-1 3-2 IMO.

[kmc28]

why not play the STL ML too?