Man, how the penetrate is buffalo not scoring. Embarrassing.
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confirmedComment -
Lookin like sabres are a auto fade from here on outComment -
Last Pick for Feb 23rd 2013 Con't:
Wild@Flames Flames -105
Ill take the flames here. Minnesota has been playing alot better. Calgarys coach called his team out after they lost the other night to the Kings.I think they will respond. I look for alot of energy derived from big hits. Calgary needs to pick it up on home Ice. if they bring the effort they should be able to squeek one out here.
Bol!Comment -
If Leafs manage a win, I'll tail this one. Come on Jackets.Comment -
happens..well damn, tailing anyway
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man, my gut said ottawa all day. I seen you on toronto, got a little scared.... damnComment -
i took he over 5... push it isComment -
matt ... whats your gut feeling on wild /flames total?Comment -
Sorry man didnt see the post. To be honest I had no feel.Comment -
Winner winner... Thank you, needed it.Comment -
Well, had a good day today. My biggest mistake was trusting buffalo. That's enough of that team. I miss read St. Louis game a bit. Oh well, good effort by Columbus I guess.
Today: 8-2-1
Overall: 107-73-5Comment -
solid day today again manComment -
another great day! Thanks Matt
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All good guys! Lets have a good day tomorrow!
Bol!Comment -
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not liking my chicago fade today, but with columbus at +240 it would be pretty awesome if we got lucky hahaComment -
trying to fade a streak (whether winning or losing)...is exactly the same as trying to time a financial market's top or bottom...
a stock market saying: "never try to catch a falling knife"...or "never try to catch a rising arrow"
far better, imo is to wait out the "unreal" streak (either following it with half-units...or nothing)... when the streak has finally ended...it's far safer to go into the water and start fading the over-due counter-move
if you play baccarat (where banker wins 50.68% long-term) and record every result as you go, you'll know that if you start martingale chasing after, say, 8 losses in a row...you "win" most of the time...but eventually=inevitably...the streak you're fading will go on "just one play" too long...and take out all the accumulated profits AND MORE from all yoiur previously-clever fading-wins...
but if you wait for the long trend to "end itself" (the equivalent of "holding your fire until you see the whites of the enemy's eyes")...before you start trying to profit from the inevitable counter-wave...you save yourself much much grief (related to the "much much money" involved...even if you manage to "dodge a bullet" and ultimately win a monstrous-bet to save your chase...the terror you had to endure is just not worth it)
translation: wait until the Hawks end their insane run themselves by losing...don't keep trying to "have a ticket in hand" for when it happens...cuz the "martingale pricing" of those type of tickets will kill ya' eventually/inevitably...if you make this sort of "fading insane runs" a habit...
yes, super-hot team A must eventually lose..and super-cold team B must eventually win...but it's best not to "bet on it"...better to "wait for it" then load up on the counter-trend spell that the run has been crying for
just my 12-sbr-points worthComment -
i don't make this a habit, by any means.Comment -
i wrote the above as GENERAL advice to be considered before a "chase" or a "line-clearing" project is begun...but once begun--and a few losses start to add to the amount invested in it--it's best to see it thru, knowing that such chases most often "work" (even if they scare the shyte out of you before they do)...just pledge that if god cuts you some slack and it does "work"...you won't invite such bankroll-threatening excitiement into your life again the next tym u think a streak just HAS TO end "SOOON"...(it does have to end...but with martingale-ing or labouchere-ing bet-sizes...just one game not SOON enough and your roll has gone...and if you chicken out cuz the next bet is just too damn big...then that bet where u tapped out and said "uncle" is the one that'll finally hit...and you'll think the universe hates you...and...and...)...
do you get the idea that I've "been there, done that"...just trying to put a punctuation point on the fact that as TEMPTINGLY-clever as it seems to bet against what SEEMS lyk an over-ripe streak....well, u can complete the sentence yourself
if i found myself in an uncomfortable chase, i'd strongly consider just forgetting about "getting revenge" by holding a ticket (presuming i could still afford it) for the game in which I'm finally proved RIGHT...i'd just up my unit size for properly-capped plays...and decide to patiently get bak what i'd lost by trying to guess the turning point...and do my best to NOT even think about just what WOULD HAVE happened if i just "stuck with" my chase...just treat the losses realized by the abandoned chase as the "tuition fees" to keep your bankroll safe and growing in the future
but that's just me...cuz i've learned that bet sizes based on the accumulated amount of previous losses eventually turn out..not bad...but catastrophically bad (it seems the universe just knows that this is the last bet on ZAG you can afford...then hits ONE MORE ZIG to kill you before finally hitting the nice ZAG u'd been dying for the last few weeks...just to mock you mercilessly)
Good thing this amazing once-in-a-generation BlackHawks run came along to put this important BRM-issue on my windshield...ALL of the above 2 posts is primarily to solidify this for ME to prevent future disasters...if anyone else finds any "lesson" in it too, fineComment -
Picks for feb 24th 2013:
Bruins@panthers under 5.5 goals
Florida has been playin better defensively, and I think this will be a 1 goal game today. Boston historically on Sundays play real low scoring tight games. Florida coming off 2 road games is 7-1 favouring the under in there last 8 games. If Theodore is starting this could be his last shot. He will have to play his best as there ready to go to markstrom.
BolComment -
MArkstrom starting dudeComment -
I'd take it at -120 or so, juice is around -145, glglComment -
i'm seeing u5 @ +120Comment -
Damn someone just threw a decent bet on floridaComment -
in all fairness, I'm seeing Markstrom's save pct at .925. As long as the Panthers keep the Bruins' shot total down to a reasonable amount, I still like the bet.Comment -
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yeah its legit. i like how it's easy to use & has the quick stats upComment
