Redman's Euro-Hockey thread

[Redman3693]

Servette winner!!!!

A very nice winner at that . Ya gotta love it when the +150 ones come through. My only regret is that I should have played more on this one, but I did not want to start playing the chase game - that can get ugly & painful to the BR.

Still in the positive overall, but would be much nicer if the ML rules covered the game, OT, & shootout like it should.

I'll be back with more tomorrow - time for a few beers & football

Cheers!

[briedward]

Servette winner!!!!

Woohoo!

[Redman3693]

There are many games that I like today. I'm just too tired to do lengthy writeups but I included the records for you to have a look at.

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
8:00am Plzen -.5 vs Sparta Prague (+100 Bet365) 3 units

Plzen 3W-1OTW-2L = 11 points
Sparta 1W-1OTW-4L = 5 points


CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
10:00am Trinec -1 vs Liberec (-110 Bet365 alternate line) 3 units

Trinec 5W-1L = 15 points
Liberec 1W-1OTW-1OTW-3L = 6 points


CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
11:30am Litvinov vs Kometa Brno -.5 (+130 Bet365) 3 units

Litvinov 3W-3L = 9 points
Kometa Brno 5W-1OTW = 16 points


RUSSIA: KHL
9:00am Vityaz Chekhov vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -.5 (-133 Bet365) 3 units

Vityaz 5W-2OTW-2L = 19 points
Lokomotiv 1W-2OTW-3OTL-4L = 10 points


RUSSIA: KHL
10:00am Dinamo Minsk vs Atlant Mytishi ML (+100 Bet365) 3 units

Dinamo 3W-1OTW-6L = 11 points
Atlant 4W-3OTW-2OTL-1L =20 points



Parlay for the day

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
8:00am Plzen -.5 vs Sparta Prague

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
11:30am Litvinov vs Kometa Brno -.5

RUSSIA: KHL
10:00am Dinamo Minsk vs Atlant Mytishi ML

1 unit at odds +820 pays 409.99



Best O'Luck on all of your PiX today!

[BryanBarina]

Thanks redman. All of the odds aren't up on 5dimes yet. Setting 3 alarms for 7am to make sure I get them placed in time!

[matreyt]

RUSSIA: KHL
9:00am Vityaz Chekhov vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -.5 (-133 Bet365) 3 units

Vityaz 1W-2OTW-3OTL-4L = 10 points
Lokomotiv 5W-2OTW-2L = 19 points

Fix! GL

[Redman3693]

RUSSIA: KHL
9:00am Vityaz Chekhov vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -.5 (-133 Bet365) 3 units

Vityaz 1W-2OTW-3OTL-4L = 10 points
Lokomotiv 5W-2OTW-2L = 19 points

Fix! GL

I appreciate the assistance - ThanX!

[Redman3693]

My early game is looking very good to start

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
8:00am Plzen -.5 vs Sparta Prague (+100 Bet365) 3 units

-Plzen has chased Sparta's G - Michal Neuvirth (Washington Cap's) from the net and are leading 4 - 1 at the 6 min mark of the second.

[Redman3693]

update

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
8:00am Plzen -.5 vs Sparta Prague (+100 Bet365) 3 units --Winner Plzen 5-4
--


RUSSIA: KHL
9:00am Vityaz Chekhov vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -.5 (-133 Bet365) 3 units
--Scoreless early in the 3rd period


RUSSIA: KHL
10:00am Dinamo Minsk vs Atlant Mytishi ML (+100 Bet365) 3 units
--Atlant leading 2-1 at the end of the 1st period

[BryanBarina]

Lokomotiv - Winner

Atlant- down 3-2 in 2nd

[briedward]

LOL I slept in. Definitely the most challenging picks to tail!

[Redman3693]

Results

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
8:00am Plzen -.5 vs Sparta Prague (+100 Bet365) 3 units --Winner Plzen 5-4

Plzen 3W-1OTW-2L = 11 points
Sparta 1W-1OTW-4L = 5 points


CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
10:00am Trinec -1 vs Liberec (-110 Bet365 alternate line) 3 units --Loser Trinec ended up winning in OT 5-4

Trinec 5W-1L = 15 points
Liberec 1W-1OTW-1OTW-3L = 6 points


CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
11:30am Litvinov vs Kometa Brno -.5 (+130 Bet365) 3 units --Loser Penalties killed Kometa who gave up the tying goal just after a 2 man adv. litivnov ended up winning 4-3 in the shootout.

Litvinov 3W-3L = 9 points
Kometa Brno 5W-1OTW = 16 points


RUSSIA: KHL
9:00am Vityaz Chekhov vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -.5 (-133 Bet365) 3 units --Winner Lokomotiv 2-0

Vityaz 1W-2OTW-3OTL-4L = 10 points
Lokomotiv 5W-2OTW-2L = 19 points


RUSSIA: KHL
10:00am Dinamo Minsk vs Atlant Mytishi ML (+100 Bet365) 3 units --Loser Atlant pocketed 2 goals in the first & then Pekka Rinne closed the door to allow Dinamo to take the lead early in the second. They never looked back & went on to win 2-0. Look for Dinamo to climb the ranks on the back of Rinne for future games.

Dinamo 3W-1OTW-6L = 11 points
Atlant 4W-3OTW-2OTL-1L =20 points


Parlay for the day --Loser

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
8:00am Plzen -.5 vs Sparta Prague

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
11:30am Litvinov vs Kometa Brno -.5

RUSSIA: KHL
10:00am Dinamo Minsk vs Atlant Mytishi ML


1 unit at odds +820 pays 409.99


Daily # 2W-4L -4.74 units

Risked: 88.00u

Won: 30.49u

Lost: -35.00u

Net: -4.51u

Win Percentage 50.00% | 16-16-2

Best O'Luck on all of your PiX today!

[Redman3693]

Monday's plays

There's not much in the way of selection for today but I did find a few that I will be playing.


RUSSIA: KHL
9:00am Tractor Chelyabinsk vs Slovan Bratislava over 5.5 (+125 Bet365) 3 units

Tractor Chelyabinsk 7W-2L = 21 points
Slovan Bratislava 4W-2OTW-1OTL-3L = 17 points

I like tractor to win this game but the odds, -105 with -1.5 spread make me nervous & don't provide any value. Slovan is a fairly good team & will probably cover the spread.

Tractor has benefitted from Andrei Kosyn in a big way - 3 goals in 5 games. As a team they have gone over 5.5 in 3 of their last 5 games. Slovan has gone over 5.5 in 4 of their last 5 games. The value is in the over for me.


RUSSIA: KHL

8:00am Avangard Omsk vs Sibir Novosibirsk ML (+200 Bet365) 3 units

Avangard Omsk 2W-3OTW-1OTL-5L = 13 points
Sibir Novosibirsk 5W-3OTW-1OTL-2L = 22 points

Sibir is in 2nd place in the east Conf while Avangard is in 10th place. Advantage Sibir.

Avangard home record 1W-3OTW-2L = 9 points
Sibir away record 3W-1OTW-1OTL-1L = 12 points >> advantage Sibir

Avangard has acquired D - Nikita Nikitin 7G, 25A for Columbus while Sibir has not dipped into the NHL talent pool. I think that Sibir can take this one or at least send it to OT & get the push. At +200 odds, I've got to play this one.


RUSSIA: KHL
HC Yugra vs Metallurg Novokuznetsk ML (+135 Bet365) 3 units

HC Yugra 1W-2OTL-7L = 5 points (home record 1W-1OTL-2L = 4 points)
Metallurg 3W-2OTW-3OTL-3L = 16 points (away record 2W-1OTW-1OTL-1L = 9 points)

Neither of these teams have acquired any NHL'ers. I feel that Metallurg's away record is much stronger that Yurga's home record.


Parlay


I'm going to parlay the 3 picks for 1 unit at odds of +1486. Potential return of $743.12


Best O'Luck on your PiX

[nosaij]

good luck. lets bounce BACK!

[BryanBarina]

Ouch

[tr4sh]

Rough past 2 days, but I still feel this thread is very valuable.

One thing if I may suggest something, from my calculation you would have saved 6 units if not for the parlay plays. Obviously the parlay will payout a lot when it hits but in a post like this where you are being analytical, maybe it's best for your bankroll if you stopped on the parlays (which is so luck dependent, esp when you get to 3 or more plays). Eventually I feel like this thread will end with a positive result however the parlay units might hinder how much in the green this post finishes in.

Even with the 6 units saved, this thread would currently be in the minus in net units however the win/loss record would stand at roughly 16-13. That's pretty impressive and I feel as you gather more and more data, you're only going to get a better grasp of the situation.

Just wanted to chime in and say I really enjoy the thread (though I'm not tailing... yet :P) and thought just pointing out that tiny hole in the overall betting strategy could make this thread even more profitable at the end.

[TheCalculator]

If you round robin the parlay picks -- you only need 3 out of 5 to hit and you're making a small profit. It's really the way to go for parlays.

[Redman3693]

Results
Tough day again folks... I wish I had better resultsto share

RUSSIA: KHL
9:00am Tractor Chelyabinsk vs Slovan Bratislava over 5.5 (+125 Bet365) 3 units --Loser Tractor won 3-1 (covered the spread I was jittery about ) but the over was missed. Kosyn played but did not score.


RUSSIA: KHL


8:00am Avangard Omsk vs Sibir Novosibirsk ML (+200 Bet365) 3 units --Push Tied at 1 after regulation. Avanguard ended up getting the winner with 1 second left in OT.


RUSSIA: KHL
HC Yugra vs Metallurg Novokuznetsk ML (+135 Bet365) 3 units --Loser - 'A But' scored in the last 43 seconds to give the cellar dwellars the victory. Yurga won 4-3


Parlay


I'm going to parlay the 3 picks for 1 unit at odds of +1486. Potential return of $743.12 --Loser



Daily total 0-3-1 -7 units

Risked: 82.00u

Won: 30.49u

Lost: -42.00u

Net: -11.51u

Win Percentage 45.71% | 16-19-3

It's been a rough ride lately & I am going to reduce the amount of units / plays until I get a better handle on what I am missing. As I stated in my very first post, NHL is my strength & Euro hockey is new to me. Sorry if I have cost you folks $$$ - I will try to do better!


Best O'Luck on your PiX

[Redman3693]

Rough past 2 days, but I still feel this thread is very valuable.

One thing if I may suggest something, from my calculation you would have saved 6 units if not for the parlay plays. Obviously the parlay will payout a lot when it hits but in a post like this where you are being analytical, maybe it's best for your bankroll if you stopped on the parlays (which is so luck dependent, esp when you get to 3 or more plays). Eventually I feel like this thread will end with a positive result however the parlay units might hinder how much in the green this post finishes in.

Even with the 6 units saved, this thread would currently be in the minus in net units however the win/loss record would stand at roughly 16-13. That's pretty impressive and I feel as you gather more and more data, you're only going to get a better grasp of the situation.

Just wanted to chime in and say I really enjoy the thread (though I'm not tailing... yet :P) and thought just pointing out that tiny hole in the overall betting strategy could make this thread even more profitable at the end.

ThanX for the input tr4sh!

I will take the advice & pass on parlays until I get more comfortable - I had such a solid start that I figured I would try & capitalize - that was when I hit regression.

I'm working to get a better grasp every day as I spend time researching the different Euro-Leagues & add more data to my transfer thread (I just added player stats yesterday).

I really appreciate any constructive input that folks care to share & am glad that you're enjoying my efforts as I do spend considerable time putting it together.


Tomorrow will be a better day!


Best O'Luck on your PiX

[Redman3693]

Tuesday's PiX

CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
12:30pm Sparta Prague vs Zlin +.5 (-125 Bet365) 3 units

Sparta 1W-1OTW-5L = 5 points
Zlin 3W-1OTW-1OTL-2L = 12 points

Sparta has lost their las 5 in a row. Their home record is 2L-1OTW (which ended 2-1 and was against Karlovy Vary an 11th place team). Sparts has added goaltending depth with G - Michal Neuvirth 2.82GAA 13-13-5 .902 SV%, but it has vet to pay off. The ML is a tempting +135, but i will play it a bit safer & take the 1/2 point.

Zlin is 3-2 in their last 5 and has an away record of 1-2, which is nothing to write home about. They are a 5th place team coming off an OTL to Chomutov (7th) and a loss to Liberec (12th). If their coach can't fire them up enough to beat the last place team in the league, maybe he should be selling hotdogs.


FINLAND: SM-liiga
11:30am Karpat Oulu vs Jokerit ML (+105 Bet365) 3 units

Karpat 2W-4L = 6points
Jokerit 2W-1OTW-3L = 8 points

Karpat is 2-3 in their last 5 and coming off a loss to Blues Espoo (2nd place). Their home record is 1-2 with both of their losses coming from quality teams & their win was over Assat (7th place team). They have acquired a couple of ok players from the NHL:
D - Jason Demers 4G, 9A for San Jose
LW - Jussi Jokinen 12G, 34A for Carolina

Jokerit is one of the traditional 'Big Guns' in the Finnish League. In their last 5 games they are 2W-1OTW-2L. Their away record is a poor 1OTW (over Ilves Tampere - 11th place) & 2L both top of the league teams. That being said, management was able to acquire 'Top Gun' talent from the NHL to bolster the roster & the final addition of karlsson is the piece that's already paid off as he scored the opening goal in the last game - a win over Hameenlinna (6th place). I must admit that i am a little biased on this as I live in Ottawa. However, this kid is built for the large rink as he is compact & skates like a SOB - 78 points for a defenceman, getting the nod from Bobby Orr, & the Norris Trophy are something to write home about.

LW - Valtteri Filppula 23G, 43A in 81 games for Detroit
D - Erik Karlsson 19G, 59A in 81 games for Ottawa (Norris Award)


RUSSIA: KHL
12:00pm Dinamo Minsk ML vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (-105 Bet365) 3 units

Dinamo 4W-1OTW-6L = 14 points
Lokomotiv 6W-2OTW-2L = 22 points

Dinamo is 2-3 in their last 5 with an impressive home record of 3-1. I see this team as a climber - their latest addition, Pekka Rinne, is IMHO one of the top 5 goalies in the NHL. In his first appearance, he helped his team beat Atlant (currently 5th) straight up. He's the kind of goalie that inspires offence because the players have fiath that he will be able to pull them out of most jams. Two BIG thumbs up to MGT for acquiring him.
C - Mikhail Grabovski 23G, 28A for Toronto
F - Tim Stapleton 11G, 16A for Winnipeg
G - Pekka Rinne 2.39GAA 43-18-8 .922SV%

Lokomotiv is no slouch, their currently in 2nd place overall with 22 points AND have played 2 fewer games than #1 HC Lev 9they could potentially be in 1st place with a 5 point lead. They have also been busy shopping at the NHL market & have acquired some quality talent:
G - Semyon Varlamov 2.59GAA 26-24-3 .913SV%
C - Artem Anisimov 16G, 20A for NYR
D - Dmitry Kulikov 4G, 24A for Florida

In their last 5 games they went 4W-1OTW & their away record is a very impressive 3W-1OTW-1L. They are contender, not pretenders.

Overall, I see this game as a low scoring affair (assuming that both Rinne & Varlamov get the starts) probably 2-1 or 3-1. I give my nod to Dinamo as they have home advantage & Rinne.

I'm going to skip playing any parlay's today but feel free to do so yourselves (today will be the day they hit).


Best O'Luck on your PiX

[eldian]

Hey Redman is there a website where you watch the euro games or do you use cable?

[JulesOcean]

No pick for Atlant vs Severstal?

[lightent]

Thanks for the pix! GL!

[Roxxyfish]

gl today Mike

[Redman3693]

Hey Redman is there a website where you watch the euro games or do you use cable?

I watch them online

https://www.vipbox.tv

livetv.ru/en ***careful with this one, there have been reports of viruses --I use VM Ware for the extra protection.

[Redman3693]

No pick for Atlant vs Severstal?

I've gotten jammed by Atlant so staying away for now.

What I'm trying to do is see if there is an edge I can gain from teams that have acquired NHL talent (something i'm more familiar with).

[Redman3693]

ThanX for the props RoXXy & lightent!




For those interested in extra action, I do have a couple of strong leans in the Swiss league - not sure if I will be playing them. I want to see how these first 3 are going.

They both start at 1:45pm

Servette -.5 vs Lugano (.111 Bet365)


Servette is undefeated 7-0 and 6 points ahead of Zurich (2nd place). They have also acquired solid talent from the NHL:
D - Yannick Weber to Geneva-Servette 4G, 14A for Montreal
C - Logan Couture to Geneva-Servette 31G, 34A for San Jose



Zurich -.5 vs Davos (+110 Bet365)


Zurich sits in 2nd while Davos is in 10th. Home ice advantage + the injury to Nash sounds like a good combination for a wager. Davos has acquired:
C - Joe Thornton to HC Davos 18G, 59A for San Jose
LW - Rick Nash to HC Davos 30G, 29A for Columbus ***shoulder injury is a bruised bone. He's considered day-to-day for now.

[eldian]

http://www.laola1.tv

This is a good site for KHL games, very good quality. They do DEL games once a week too.

[rich_24]

Minsk-Lokomotiv is very tricky game.. better fade, because Loko is very good team, so i think they will win or there will be OT or pen.shots.
anyway Gl.

[Redman3693]

http://www.laola1.tv

This is a good site for KHL games, very good quality. They do DEL games once a week too.

Much appreciated eldian!

I also found this site for Czech games

http://www.tvtipsport.cz/elh

[rich_24]

http://www.laola1.tv

This is a good site for KHL games, very good quality. They do DEL games once a week too.

onhockey.ru is best streaming site for hockey.

[Redman3693]

Minsk-Lokomotiv is very tricky game.. better fade, because Loko is very good team, so i think they will win or there will be OT or pen.shots.
anyway Gl.

I agree that it's a tricky one but with Minsk having home ice & Rinne, I think that it's worth a shot on the ML. If Lokomotiv were at home, I would not play it.

I always appreciate folks thoughts - ThanX for taking the time to share them.

[eldian]

Hey Redman, Mikhail Grabovski didn't sign with Dinamo Minsk, Evander Kane signed with Dinamo Minsk. Mikhail Grabovski signed with CSKA Moscow.

[hotelis]

<br>just fade Dinamo Riga in away games and you will be ok.

[BryanBarina]

Damnit, set my alarm for 3:15 and picks aren't up yet!

[Redman3693]

Hey Redman, Mikhail Grabovski didn't sign with Dinamo Minsk, Evander Kane signed with Dinamo Minsk. Mikhail Grabovski signed with CSKA Moscow.

ThanX eldian

I try to do my best but am only human & appreciate it when someone takes the time to assist.