BS Teasers / Wong Teasers

[jolmscheid]

Anyone still play these in the NFL?

I tracked these last season with some filters and it performed extremely well...

Just wondering if anyone else uses these or has other filters they apply?

I obviously understand that many books do not set themselves up to get "Wonged" anymore, but with the "ties win" options, I think there is definitely some money to be had..

[jolmscheid]

Look forward to some banter back and forth

[Justin7]

There are places to play, but it is much harder to get volume.

[NSN21]

Where do you get "ties win"?

[GunShard]

Wong Teasers don't work in the long run from what I researched.

[LT Profits]

Where do you get "ties win"?

5 Dimes to name one

[donkson]

Wong Teasers don't work in the long run from what I researched.

you didn't research properly.

[Justin7]

Gunshard,

Why don't you share your results? Your conclusions are not what I would expect.

[Kolotoure]

Wong Teasers don't work in the long run from what I researched.

Your research isn't good then

[NSN21]

5 Dimes to name one

That's right - I did know this now that you mention it. I usually forget about 5D when it comes to "Wong" teasers because they shade their numbers to prevent them.

[GunShard]

I need to redo the research.

When the 2013 NFL season starts, I'll keep track of my Wong Teaser bets and see how profitable this is. Researching past opening lines doesn't show the line movement that can give an opening to a Wong Teaser.

[jolmscheid]

My thoughts are even if 5 Dimes does shade their lines for example to -9 instead of -8.5, with "ties win" wouldn't teasing the -9 still be fine to do?

[mathdotcom]

I need to redo the research, since I didn't add the Kelly Criterion to prevent a bankroll from going broke.

wrong approach entirely

bankroll irrelevant

[LT Profits]

My thoughts are even if 5 Dimes does shade their lines for example to -9 instead of -8.5, with "ties win" wouldn't teasing the -9 still be fine to do?

They don't do that. they take 7.5 to 9 or 9.5 and 8.5 to 9.5 or 10. The good thing is that you can actually cross the 0 from -3 to +3, as that is effectively going to +3,5.

[GunShard]

When the 2013 NFL season starts, I'll keep track of my Wong Teaser bets and see how profitable this is. Researching past opening lines doesn't show the line movement that can give an opening to a Wong Teaser.

[jolmscheid]

Interesting...good to know...and I do believe that teasing a -7 down to -1 ties win is beneficial too as long as it's a better price to do so than the moneyline?

[Kolotoure]

I need to redo the research, since I didn't add the Kelly Criterion to prevent a bankroll from going broke.

How is this relevant to whether Wong's are profitable or not?

[donkson]

When the 2013 NFL season starts, I'll keep track of my Wong Teaser bets and see how profitable this is. Researching past opening lines doesn't show the line movement that can give an opening to a Wong Teaser.

you need to actually understand what wong's are first.

[GunShard]

you need to actually understand what wong's are first.

You actually need to understand line movement.

Some opening lines does not start on +1.5 to +2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5. There are line movement that goes through the Wong Teaser.

[donkson]

opening lines have nothing to do with playing wong teasers.

you need to actually understand what wong's are first.

[NunyaBidness]

When the 2013 NFL season starts, I'll keep track of my Wong Teaser bets and see how profitable this is. Researching past opening lines doesn't show the line movement that can give an opening to a Wong Teaser.

Wongs could easily lose in 2013 and it wouldn't tell you much about whether or not its profitable.

[chunk]

Once again, generalities rule. To make a valid argument, one would have to be more specific. That being said, and generally speaking, there are times when NFL teasers are a solid play. It isn't rocket science, but the average knucklehead won't recognize the opportunity.

[LT Profits]

Once again, generalities rule. To make a valid argument, one would have to be more specific. That being said, and generally speaking, there are times when NFL teasers are a solid play. It isn't rocket science, but the average knucklehead won't recognize the opportunity.

And many here have the data to do so, but they are smart enough not to post it in a public forum. Bottom line is Wong Teasers are +EV long term.

[LT Profits]

You actually need to understand line movement.

Some opening lines does not start on +1.5 to +2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5. There are line movement that goes through the Wong Teaser.

Teasers are one of the few bets where you actually WANT to be working with the most efficient lines possible.

[mathdotcom]

Teasers are one of the few bets where you actually WANT to be working with the most efficient lines possible.

I assume by efficient you mean -7.5 -110 rather than -9.5 +110?

[LT Profits]

I assume by efficient you mean -7.5 -110 rather than -9.5 +110?

I meant waiting as long as possible until the line has matured as opposed to straight betting, where you should bet NFL as early as possible in an attempt to beat the close.

[mathdotcom]

This makes no sense. If you like the Pats -7.5 on Tuesday you advocate straight betting them before the line gets more efficient (and if you're right, will close at -10), but you suggest holding off on teasing them until Sunday morning?

If you have a reason to believe the current price is wrong, then you should bet according to what you think it should be.

If you have no opinion and think it is 50/50 whether the current number goes up or down, there is no reason to wait until Sunday morning either. Nailing Pats -7.5 in a teaser on Tuesday will make you sad if the Pats close -4.5, but it'll also make you very happy if it closes -10.

[Pancho sanza]

Teasers are one of the few bets where you actually WANT to be working with the most efficient lines possible.

It doesn't make that much of a difference, line moves will work for/against you equally in the long run.

[donkson]

how can so many people STILL not understand wong teasers?

[LT Profits]

This makes no sense. If you like the Pats -7.5 on Tuesday you advocate straight betting them before the line gets more efficient (and if you're right, will close at -10), but you suggest holding off on teasing them until Sunday morning?

If you have a reason to believe the current price is wrong, then you should bet according to what you think it should be.

If you have no opinion and think it is 50/50 whether the current number goes up or down, there is no reason to wait until Sunday morning either. Nailing Pats -7.5 in a teaser on Tuesday will make you sad if the Pats close -4.5, but it'll also make you very happy if it closes -10.

That's fine if you play teasers regularly without regard if they end up being "Wongable" or not. But if your intent is to ONLY play Wong teasers and forego all others, then you would be doubling your exposure unnecessarily if, using your example, game closes -10 (non-Wong).

[mathdotcom]

That's fine if you play teasers regularly without regard if they end up being "Wongable" or not. But if your intent is to ONLY play Wong teasers and forego all others, then you would be doubling your exposure unnecessarily if, using your example, game closes -10 (non-Wong).

Let's please phrase this in terms of EV not worst case scenario.

Even if you can get down as much as you like on Wong teasers so that you're constrained by Kelly, there is no difference between hitting your max on Tuesday or Sunday morning in terms of EV unless you have an opinion that the market will move against you.

If you are not constrained by Kelly because the square books have low limits, then you would want to "double your exposure" by betting on Tuesday, and then also looking for new opportunities Sunday morning realizing the Tuesday bets are sunk.

[mathdotcom]

Anyhow this is more interesting than it looks. To give one example, on Tuesday you find the Bears +1.5 and it meets the criteria for a teaser leg.

If you wait and it moves to +1, you missed your chance and you've foregone some EV.
If you don't wait and it moves to +2, all you missed out on was a teaser with Bears +8 instead of +7.5.

I'll let you ponder the rest

[CrazyCarl]

Thanks math and LT.

[jolmscheid]

Exactly...I think this will be good especially with a local

[jolmscheid]

They don't do that. they take 7.5 to 9 or 9.5 and 8.5 to 9.5 or 10. The good thing is that you can actually cross the 0 from -3 to +3, as that is effectively going to +3,5.

I like this option too...