Hello all,
I'm gonna make this short and sweet.
I've been a long-time lurker, but haven't posted before. I've learned a ton from many of the posters on this site who undoubetedly have much more handicapping experience than I do. To those of you out there who have helped make me a better handicapper, I thank you.
I'm in a bit of a nerve-racking situation for a relative small-timer like me. Each year I enter into a bowl pick'em competition that has a field of 100 players. The entry fee is 300 dollars. The contest (and subsequently the prizes) are broken into two levels: the first contest covers all 34 bowl games. The second, "mini-contest" begins with the new year's day bowls. The payouts are as follows:
Overall contest:
1st place: 11,040
2nd place: 3,680
3rd place: 1,840
4th place: 920
5th place: 460
New Year's Day Onward Contest:
1st place: 5,520
2nd place: 1,840
3rd place: 920
4th place: 460
Here is where I stand right now:
I've crunched the numbers, and if Boston College covers a spread of +9.5 points, Auburn covers a spread of -3.5 points, and the number of total points scored in the national championship game is greater than 73 points, then I will win the New Year's Day onward competition and will place second in the overall competition. I will therefore net $9,200 in this outcome.
If Boston College covers, Auburn covers and the number of total points scored in the national championship game is 71 points or less, then I will finish second in the New Year's Day onward competition and third in the overall competition. I will therefore net 3,680 in this outcome.
If neither Boston College and/or Auburn cover, then I will win nothing.
I have calculated the mark-to-market value of my entry in this contest as follows:
0.5 probability of BC cover (not exact i know but this is why I'm posting)
x0.5 probability of Aub cover ("")
x0.5 probability of game going over 72 points
= 0.125 percent I win $9,200
Likewise there is also a 0.125 percent probability that I could win $3,680. And subsequently there is a 3/4 probability that I win nothing.
Therefore, the ticket is worth 0.125x9200 + 0.125x3680 + 0.75x0 = $1,610
QUESTION ONE: Is my math right? What am I missing here? Is this truly the m2m value of my ticket?
QUESTION TWO, THE REAL REASON I AM HERE: I have been considering going out onto my online account and putting on some sort of parlay or something to try and mitigate some of the risk that is inherent in a potential Nevada/Oregon cover, which would render my ticket worthless. However, the extent of my sports betting experience is betting games against the spread, betting totals, and the occasional parlay/prop. It seems to me that I would have to put in some sort of elaborate round robin/reverse ticket that is custom tailored to pay of maximally in the opposite scenario of the one above that will give me a big payday.
I am willing to forego some of my potential winnings in the two scenarios in which I cash to at least guarantee myself something. I have been absolutely unconscious this bowl season (>80%) and would hate to go home empty-handed in this thing.
Can anyone shed some insight as to how one would go about constructing a maximum-value hedge in this situation? It would be greatly appreciated!
I'm gonna make this short and sweet.
I've been a long-time lurker, but haven't posted before. I've learned a ton from many of the posters on this site who undoubetedly have much more handicapping experience than I do. To those of you out there who have helped make me a better handicapper, I thank you.
I'm in a bit of a nerve-racking situation for a relative small-timer like me. Each year I enter into a bowl pick'em competition that has a field of 100 players. The entry fee is 300 dollars. The contest (and subsequently the prizes) are broken into two levels: the first contest covers all 34 bowl games. The second, "mini-contest" begins with the new year's day bowls. The payouts are as follows:
Overall contest:
1st place: 11,040
2nd place: 3,680
3rd place: 1,840
4th place: 920
5th place: 460
New Year's Day Onward Contest:
1st place: 5,520
2nd place: 1,840
3rd place: 920
4th place: 460
Here is where I stand right now:
I've crunched the numbers, and if Boston College covers a spread of +9.5 points, Auburn covers a spread of -3.5 points, and the number of total points scored in the national championship game is greater than 73 points, then I will win the New Year's Day onward competition and will place second in the overall competition. I will therefore net $9,200 in this outcome.
If Boston College covers, Auburn covers and the number of total points scored in the national championship game is 71 points or less, then I will finish second in the New Year's Day onward competition and third in the overall competition. I will therefore net 3,680 in this outcome.
If neither Boston College and/or Auburn cover, then I will win nothing.
I have calculated the mark-to-market value of my entry in this contest as follows:
0.5 probability of BC cover (not exact i know but this is why I'm posting)
x0.5 probability of Aub cover ("")
x0.5 probability of game going over 72 points
= 0.125 percent I win $9,200
Likewise there is also a 0.125 percent probability that I could win $3,680. And subsequently there is a 3/4 probability that I win nothing.
Therefore, the ticket is worth 0.125x9200 + 0.125x3680 + 0.75x0 = $1,610
QUESTION ONE: Is my math right? What am I missing here? Is this truly the m2m value of my ticket?
QUESTION TWO, THE REAL REASON I AM HERE: I have been considering going out onto my online account and putting on some sort of parlay or something to try and mitigate some of the risk that is inherent in a potential Nevada/Oregon cover, which would render my ticket worthless. However, the extent of my sports betting experience is betting games against the spread, betting totals, and the occasional parlay/prop. It seems to me that I would have to put in some sort of elaborate round robin/reverse ticket that is custom tailored to pay of maximally in the opposite scenario of the one above that will give me a big payday.
I am willing to forego some of my potential winnings in the two scenarios in which I cash to at least guarantee myself something. I have been absolutely unconscious this bowl season (>80%) and would hate to go home empty-handed in this thing.
Can anyone shed some insight as to how one would go about constructing a maximum-value hedge in this situation? It would be greatly appreciated!