Determining the difference between a 'Great Line' and a 'Trap'

**RickySteve** · 03-08-08, 06:24 PM

Could those same guys please chime in regarding how they decipher Bigfoot from the UPS guy?

**20Four7** · 03-08-08, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by RickySteve

Could those same guys please chime in regarding how they decipher Bigfoot from the UPS guy?

Let me think about that one...... they ARE both brown aren't they?

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-08-08, 06:54 PM

Scheduling issues, as well as team moral. Combined w/ motivation.

**mmarino** · 03-08-08, 11:59 PM

If it looks too good to be true, then it most likely is.

**LVHerbie** · 03-09-08, 02:45 AM

I been betting sports for awhile now and see the expression thrown around all the time and have no clue what it means... Is this kindof like a tight/loose slot machine?

**VegasDave** · 03-09-08, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by LVHerbie

I been betting sports for awhile now and see the expression thrown around all the time and have no clue what it means... Is this kindof like a tight/loose slot machine?

A trap game is a game that has a spread that looks EXTREMELY good (Example, say, Ravens @ Colts +4) that the casino has set that way into trapping you into betting the wrong side (they know about Peyton's undisclosed injury... Ravens win 14 - 6, all the people that pounded that line lose).

To answer the original question (if I'm allowed, since I'm not a veteran poster...), I generally think the game might be a trap if any average joe off the street with only ESPN's worth of knowledge would have no trouble picking the EASY winner. Lakers at home -1 against Seattle. Huh?!? That is beyond a great line, that is unheard of - so I'll stay away.

All it takes to make a line great is a point more in your favor then you feel you needed. 2 or 3, rare but great. 4+? Now you really have to consider trap. The BIGGEST trap triggers in my mind are when bettor's faves (Yanks, Lakers, USC Football) are off by quite a bit. Seeing a backers would have backed them anyway, if they are getting favorable lines on top of that, something is definitely up.

**LVHerbie** · 03-09-08, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by usckingsfan31

A trap game is a game that has a spread that looks EXTREMELY good (Example, say, Ravens @ Colts +4) that the casino has set that way into trapping you into betting the wrong side (they know about Peyton's undisclosed injury... Ravens win 14 - 6, all the people that pounded that line lose).

To answer the original question (if I'm allowed, since I'm not a veteran poster...), I generally think the game might be a trap if any average joe off the street with only ESPN's worth of knowledge would have no trouble picking the EASY winner. Lakers at home -1 against Seattle. Huh?!? That is beyond a great line, that is unheard of - so I'll stay away.

All it takes to make a line great is a point more in your favor then you feel you needed. 2 or 3, rare but great. 4+? Now you really have to consider trap. The BIGGEST trap triggers in my mind are when bettor's faves (Yanks, Lakers, USC Football) are off by quite a bit. Seeing a backers would have backed them anyway, if they are getting favorable lines on top of that, something is definitely up.

So you figure a line on team should be -4 at true odds... You can bet it it at -3 through -1, but at pick 'em you got to start looking for "a trap" and shy away from a bet? And, just to make sure I got this right, this trap consist of books having inside information? So if this information is unknown how would you go about finding this so called trap? Or am I suppose to just not bet any game at that I think the line is off by 4 or more points?

**20Four7** · 03-09-08, 10:31 AM

If my "line" is off I start looking for something. Is wallace playing today, is payton manning injured, was their a bus crash and the whole starting line is out. Something to justify this line. If I find nothing I bet as I would normally bet. I might sit and see if the line starts moving. I look for anything that might justify the "off" line.

If everytime I capped a game and a line was "off" I'd never have any value plays.

Using my 2 picks in yesterday's parlay contest.

Cleveland I had the line at 12.5. I gave 8. Difference 5.5. When it moved to 7 I should probably be more scared or more confident (unfortunately I didn't bet at that line and got the push but what the hell).

Houston I had the line at 11, I ended up giving 7 in the contest, 7 in my parlay and 6 on my straight up bet. Houston wins by 10. Again at 6 I should pass. I would never have a game to play.

If the line is off look for a reason. If there is no "logical" reason make your normal play. End of story.

**HedgeHog** · 03-09-08, 04:11 PM

A great line is when you handicap a +Ev bet and find a 1/2 point advantage....at a -105 place.

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-18-08, 12:29 AM

A trap is when the public is betting on a fave heavily and the line either stays the same or moves in favor of the public, thus inviting even more action.
The reasoning for this is that the book needs to attract attention to the fave because there is too much money the other way from sharps. Therefore you can have the betting public at 80/20 and still get close to even money on the line. I have a thread going into detail posted about this for march college baskets.

**ChuteBoxe** · 03-19-08, 03:48 AM

Love the info so far everyone. When I think I know too much about something, is the day I die. If you don't learn something new every single day, you're ignorant. Also, it never hurts to learn what works for other people, and adapt to your own style.

**SBR Lou** · 03-20-08, 01:06 AM

The difference, as I see it.

When you see a line that you instantly just go "there's no way! that's too good", that type of reaction. For the most part, there is a way, and it isn't "too good". There's a reason for it. That kind of game, to me, is the biggest kind of trap. Always claw past the exterior with some form of study, and if you still like the line at that point, you can consider it to hold great value.