Betting the middle

**m3vr6** · 12-08-07, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by ShamsWoof10

Hey bud how's it goin... Give me a call if you still have my number.... I tried PMing you but I wasn't able to...

PM is not working again.. MOD please fix it. I still have your number.

**ShamsWoof10** · 12-08-07, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by m3vr6

PM is not working again.. MOD please fix it. I still have your number.

call me...

**daveydude** · 12-16-07, 05:03 AM

3 and 7 Middles

A question about the probablity of the 3 (9.8%) and 7 (5.7%) hitting in NFL. Do these percentages reflect all matches or just the matches where the fav won by that ammount. Surely any spread on these numbers relies on the fav winning by that ammount.

**Ganchrow** · 12-16-07, 05:36 AM

Originally posted by daveydude

A question about the probablity of the 3 (9.8%) and 7 (5.7%) hitting in NFL. Do these percentages reflect all matches or just the matches where the fav won by that ammount. Surely any spread on these numbers relies on the fav winning by that ammount.

As far as the half -point calculator goes these figures the represent probability of a favorite MOV of 3 or 7 given closing spreads close to 3 or 7 respectively.

This is based on the methodology outlined by Stanford Wong in Sharp Sports Betting. I highly recommend that book for anyone looking to get started with quantitative sports betting.

**BEANTOWNJIM** · 12-16-07, 05:54 AM

Hey Ganch Why Dont You Stop Throwing Out All This Percentage Bullshit And Throw Out Some Winners.the Numbers Game Is Bullshit We Are Not Here For A Math Class We Are Here To Make Money.

Who Gives A F-ck About The Numbers We Want Winners

I Grin :d When I Win

**tribet** · 12-16-07, 07:02 AM

If you are going to middle you need a long term approach,it's no good getting fed up when you miss with your first 30 middles and giving up because you might hit on number 31.
I take no more than a 1% loss on middles and usually a small profit as I split the bets to include an arb,the best lines to middle are football hcps the worst nba totals and the you should ignore the probability percentages as they are irrelevant to any given match,I'm sure mr.Wong is good at number crunching but short on real world experience.

**daveydude** · 12-16-07, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by tribet

If you are going to middle you need a long term approach,it's no good getting fed up when you miss with your first 30 middles and giving up because you might hit on number 31.
I take no more than a 1% loss on middles and usually a small profit as I split the bets to include an arb,the best lines to middle are football hcps the worst nba totals and the you should ignore the probability percentages as they are irrelevant to any given match,I'm sure mr.Wong is good at number crunching but short on real world experience.

Thanks for the help tribet, i know this is a long term thing, i'm quite happy to ride out the fluctuations if i know the long term will yield a profit. I have looked for 1% losing middles in NFL Hcaps but where on earth do you find them, do you stare at the lines hoping to catch them as they move, do you take one side early, or is there a time, say leading up to kick off, where they are easier to find?

**tribet** · 12-16-07, 07:59 AM

As I am in the UK I expect my list of available books is a lot larger than yours and there has not been much movement on football lines this year so I am doing no more than 10 hcp football middles a week and they occur at any point in the preceding week.
Most of the middle opportunities this year are unfortunately NBA totals(plenty) although there are quite a few NBA hcps,I would work on those as the injury outs in NBA make for the hcp changes
you need but you have to be quick.

**daveydude** · 12-16-07, 08:13 AM

Hi Tribet, i'm also in the uk, if you would like to chat please pass your email to me through john at SBR.

**ShamsWoof10** · 12-16-07, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by tribet

If you are going to middle you need a long term approach,it's no good getting fed up when you miss with your first 30 middles and giving up because you might hit on number 31.
I take no more than a 1% loss on middles and usually a small profit as I split the bets to include an arb,the best lines to middle are football hcps the worst nba totals and the you should ignore the probability percentages as they are irrelevant to any given match,I'm sure mr.Wong is good at number crunching but short on real world experience.

I agree with you.. That number crunching sh*t is exactly that...

As I mentioned before NBA half time lines are the BEST to middle... I missed my last three because of a LAST second shot or missed shot otherwise it would have hit... Half time lines are USUALLY that close to middling....

If you watch half lines you will notice how close it USUALLY lands to the number..

**daveydude** · 12-17-07, 05:06 AM

I guess posting on a Sunday about middling is not the best time as i'm sure all you guys are busy with the NFL and judging by the number of threads i witnessed i watched my post disappearing into obscurity.

Anyway if any of you have any further knowledge that you feel you might like to share that will help me to get a foot on the ladder of this middling malarky then it would be very much appreciated.

**the_fredrik** · 12-17-07, 05:40 AM

Here is how you bet middles profitably:

Check how much the difference is worth using http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

Example: yesterday I found:

Carolina +7.5 -105
Seattle -7 -103

Using the calculator, we see that this half-point is worth about 12 cents (the difference between -110 and +102.5) so this middle should be slightly profitable.

**daveydude** · 12-17-07, 11:51 AM

Hey the_fredrik, thanks for that. I know how to use the calculator and work out the ev. As it happens i also had the carolina game. I think i need more ideas on when and how to go about finding them.