1. #1
    Bsims
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    SIM games

    I notice lots of discussions about wagering on simulated games in the bitcoin forum. I'd tread lightly. Just because the game is between the Bears and the Packers doesn't mean you should use the same handicapping techniques that you would use in a real life match up.

    First, remember, you are betting on the output of a computer program. You don't know if it mimicks real life very well.

    Second, the players are represented by numerical ratings. You don't know how many ratings are involved, or how accurately they represent the player skills.

    Otherwise, enjoy throwing darts at these.

  2. #2
    Crusherrr
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    I notice lots of discussions about wagering on simulated games in the bitcoin forum. I'd tread lightly. Just because the game is between the Bears and the Packers doesn't mean you should use the same handicapping techniques that you would use in a real life match up.
    First, remember, you are betting on the output of a computer program. You don't know if it mimicks real life very well.

    Second, the players are represented by numerical ratings. You don't know how many ratings are involved, or how accurately they represent the player skills.

    Otherwise, enjoy throwing darts at these.
    I've found taking the points to be a pretty good "system".

    I've played games like NBA 2k and Madden and everytime I'm stomping my 9 year old at Madden he starts causing miracle fumbles and interceptions to bring the game back close. It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.

    Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.
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  3. #3
    bonzaii
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusherrr View Post
    I've found taking the points to be a pretty good "system".

    I've played games like NBA 2k and Madden and everytime I'm stomping my 9 year old at Madden he starts causing miracle fumbles and interceptions to bring the game back close. It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.

    Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.
    No real need for that unless a site wants to be real desperate and scummy. Most of the madden teams are pretty equal talent wise except the elite teams and the bottom feeders like the Dolphins and Bungles.
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  4. #4
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusherrr View Post
    It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.
    Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.
    That's precisely my point. Thanks!

  5. #5
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusherrr View Post
    I've found taking the points to be a pretty good "system".

    I've played games like NBA 2k and Madden and everytime I'm stomping my 9 year old at Madden he starts causing miracle fumbles and interceptions to bring the game back close. It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.

    Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.

    The games Esp in NBA 2k20 via mybookie lots of huge blowouts Favs winning by 40 is not out of norm and +12 Dogs winning by 20...If you bet the ML on dogs you would be doing very well. Also the books have been getting killed so far

  6. #6
    littlekona
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    today's Books line and then Fairlay's last column

    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 9am CT Browns@Bengals twitch.tv/livefootballsims Browns -10.5 Bengals +10.5 +10
    NBA 2K20 SIM 4-11 12pm CT Lakers@Celtics twitch.tv/primetimeactionnba Lakers -9 Celtics +9 +4.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 12pm CT Bills@Giants twitch.tv/livefootballsims Bills -3.5 Giants +3.5 +4.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 12pm CT Falcons@Bears twitch.tv/betonlinemadden Falcons +2 Bears -2 -1.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 12pm CT Falcons@Bears twitch.tv/betonlinemadden Over 45.5 Under 45.5 48.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 2pm CT Patriots@Chargers twitch.tv/primetimeaction Patriots -4 Chargers +4 +3
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 2pm CT Patriots@Chargers twitch.tv/primetimeaction Over 42 Under 42 41
    MLB The Show 4-11 2pm CT Yankees(Cole)@Red Sox(Rodriguez) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb Yankees -1.5 Red Sox +1.5 +1.5
    MLB The Show 4-11 2pm CT Yankees(Cole)@Red Sox(Rodriguez) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb Over 9 Under 9 9
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 3pm CT Raiders@Rams twitch.tv/betonlinemadden Raiders +6.5 Rams -6.5 -5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 3pm CT Raiders@Rams twitch.tv/betonlinemadden Over 50 Under 50 52
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 3pm CT Cowboys@Cardinals twitch.tv/livefootballsims Cowboys -9.5 Cardinals +9.5 +10.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 4pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/primetimeaction Patriots -2 Steelers +2 +2
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 4pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/primetimeaction Over 40 Under 40 41
    MLB The Show 4-11 4pm CT Red Sox(Sale)@Yankees(Tanaka) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb Red Sox +118 Yankees -138 -138
    MLB The Show 4-11 4pm CT Red Sox(Sale)@Yankees(Tanaka) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb Over 9.5 Under 9.5 9.5
    MLB The Show 4-11 6pm CT Yankees(German)@Red Sox(Eovaldi) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb Yankees -1.5 Red Sox +1.5 +1.5
    MLB The Show 4-11 6pm CT Yankees(German)@Red Sox(Eovaldi) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb Over 11 Under 11 11
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 6pm CT Patriots@Eagles twitch.tv/livefootballsims Patriots -2 Eagles +2 +3.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 6pm CT Packers@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction Packers +3 Patriots -3 -3
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 6pm CT Packers@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction Over 44.5 Under 44.5 46
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 7pm CT Saints@Lions twitch.tv/betonlinemadden Saints -10 Lions +10 +8.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 7pm CT Saints@Lions twitch.tv/betonlinemadden Over 54 Under 54 57
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 8pm CT Saints@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction Saints -1 Patriots +1 +2.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 8pm CT Saints@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction Over 45.5 Under 45.5 45.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-11 9pm CT Ravens@Saints twitch.tv/livefootballsims Ravens PICK Saints PICK +2.5
    Last edited by littlekona; 04-11-20 at 11:47 AM.

  7. #7
    trytrytry
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    daily SBR betpionts action here on SIMS. betpoints forum is the place.

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...aker-cris.html

  8. #8
    kofsports
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    I agree @BSims...you don't know what the program will do. You also can't validate that the ratings of the players haven't been tampered with.

  9. #9
    trytrytry
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    daily SBR betpionts action here on SIMS. betpoints forum is the place.

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...maker-cri.html

  10. #10
    bitcoinLuke
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    I can't believe anyone would bet on these. Degenerates, smh

  11. #11
    FullStrength
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    Duh......

  12. #12
    FullStrength
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    It's books offering us a chance to wager on something other than soccer or table tennis. How great is that? Of course don't bet a huge amount.

  13. #13
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitcoinLuke View Post
    I can't believe anyone would bet on these. Degenerates, smh
    then don't participate or comment. Plenty of people bet and some who do simulations and forecast are doing well. E sports is huge and one can argue that is even more rigged BUT many people bet and do very well at that too. Ask market makers like Danshan how he is doing on esports and SIMS and he will tell you guys are crushing him some days. Its all in good fun and I know many guys that treat SIMS like any NFL Sunday they are called recreational gamblers. That said we expect fairness from the books and so far the top tier ones like Bookmaker, BOL, Bovada have shown integrity while others like MyBookie have shown they can not be trusted as usual

  14. #14
    GimpedMaster
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    I love sims, killing it with them currently and just love having options every single day, vs NFL season where you have only one big day of action...

  15. #15
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by GimpedMaster View Post
    I love sims, killing it with them currently and just love having options every single day, vs NFL season where you have only one big day of action...
    the SIMS are here to stay. Bookmaker sent me a survey about them and by the questions they asked it will be here for good and even during the NFL season probably SIM games in AM or PM same day as REAL SPORTS .....Im with you they are fun

  16. #16
    pretentiousGuy
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    What stops them from rigging these sims?

  17. #17
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by pretentiousGuy View Post
    What stops them from rigging these sims?
    the rigged ones are my FAV!!! way +EV

  18. #18
    HomeRun35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    I notice lots of discussions about wagering on simulated games in the bitcoin forum. I'd tread lightly. Just because the game is between the Bears and the Packers doesn't mean you should use the same handicapping techniques that you would use in a real life match up.
    Can't speak for football but most MLB sim lines are closing very close to where they would be in real life

  19. #19
    lonegambler23
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    best way to bet sims is fade it entirely

  20. #20
    yahoonino
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    dont like it ,,i bet a little ,, but no more,,,it so frustrating ,on 4 down and inches they never goin for it on the opponent 35 yard line,,,if got the over and you need a field goal ,they fumble on the 5 yard line,,they seem like they know where people money are,

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  21. #21
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by yahoonino View Post
    dont like it ,,i bet a little ,, but no more,,,it so frustrating ,on 4 down and inches they never goin for it on the opponent 35 yard line,,,if got the over and you need a field goal ,they fumble on the 5 yard line,,they seem like they know where people money are,
    This is part of the problem that prompted my original post. There are lots of questions about these sims. In this case, how are the coaching decisions made? What type of factors influence the decisions made. It's unknown to anyone trying to handicap and event.

  22. #22
    Bsims
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    Here's a more worrisome issue. The bookmaker running the sims can run it 10,000 times or so before running the one time you would bet on. They would know the likely scores distribution. With that, they could set a perfectly efficient line. In that case, no one could handicap the event. You might as well put your money on a number in roulette. No brains useful here.

  23. #23
    littlekona
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    SIMS
    blue actualred expected

  24. #24
    littlekona
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    Via Danshan Stat's

    1314 bets on Madden 54% actual win percentageno vig assuming standard vig54.9% implied probabilityI dont know how they do it but man hats off

  25. #25
    Bsims
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    I don't understand the graph. What are the axis values? What does the blue and red lines represent? Where does the data come from?

  26. #26
    littlekona
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    1134(more now) is the number of games Fairlay booked from the major SIM book sites like bookmaker-bovada. Shows that the books lines are pretty damn good and getting even better and pretty much as good as real sports

  27. #27
    GimpedMaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    Here's a more worrisome issue. The bookmaker running the sims can run it 10,000 times or so before running the one time you would bet on. They would know the likely scores distribution. With that, they could set a perfectly efficient line. In that case, no one could handicap the event. You might as well put your money on a number in roulette. No brains useful here.
    I’m up 30k this month playing sims and capping to the best of my ability. So it’s just pure luck you’re saying? I think it’s more than that, I’m just not this lucky.

  28. #28
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by GimpedMaster View Post
    I’m up 30k this month playing sims and capping to the best of my ability. So it’s just pure luck you’re saying? I think it’s more than that, I’m just not this lucky.
    That is very good Conrats! and I agree 100%..Guys like Danshan too can model these games with great success...I am up about 2K but smaller bets. If you use Bookmaker-5Dimes-Fairlay even if limited you can still get some decent amounts

  29. #29
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by pretentiousGuy View Post
    What stops them from rigging these sims?
    There's basically no need to, like with a casino. Since they built the simulation and control the variables, they know exactly what % probability every event is. They're not like real sports where punters can find an edge through better information, assessment or modelling.

  30. #30
    PhillipKessel
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    Quote Originally Posted by pretentiousGuy View Post
    What stops them from rigging these sims?
    Also -115/-115

  31. #31
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by pretentiousGuy View Post
    What stops them from rigging these sims?
    One did and got hit hard once bettors figured out how they rigged it. They took down their sports sims offers and removed their stream channel a week or so ago.

  32. #32
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    There's basically no need to, like with a casino. Since they built the simulation and control the variables, they know exactly what % probability every event is. They're not like real sports where punters can find an edge through better information, assessment or modelling.
    That's basically my point. The guy who is up 30K is quite frankly, lucky.

  33. #33
    GimpedMaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    That's basically my point. The guy who is up 30K is quite frankly, lucky.
    I agree that I'm lucky, there are still random bounces of a fumble and last minute interceptions that have gone my way.

    But that being said, i'm consistently following the same rules and continually winning each week. The thing about the simulations is that its a clean slate every game. There are no trends, no changes of offensive coordinators etc.

    IIf you just stay consistent on who you bet, the simulation will continue to output similar results over the course of time.

    It's square and chalky, but focusing on moneyline favorites while cherry picking certain underdogs just keeps working over and over.

  34. #34
    pretentiousGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    That's basically my point. The guy who is up 30K is quite frankly, lucky.
    We're all lucky to be in a time where we can win money from our homes, wearing only underwear.

  35. #35
    HomeRun35
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    One did and got hit hard once bettors figured out how they rigged it. They took down their sports sims offers and removed their stream channel a week or so ago.
    Which stream/book was this?

    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    That is very good Conrats! and I agree 100%..Guys like Danshan too can model these games with great success...I am up about 2K but smaller bets. If you use Bookmaker-5Dimes-Fairlay even if limited you can still get some decent amounts
    Does the guy taking sims on FL do higher maxes for NFL sims? His MLB sim maxes are 150

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