Question regarding Kelly moving forward

[Jimbo42]

Hopefully you can help...

I play an NBA system each year that normally hits in the 57% range...
This year however it is rolling along at a 34-21 (61.81%) pace...
My question, Do I continue to play my system at the 57% Kelly calculation or do I cut that number back since my system is playing out at such a hot pace and i should expect a downturn??

Please help.

Thanks.

[mintybetmachine]

Is there any math involved in your system?

[Jimbo42]

Is there any math involved in your system?

No it is situational.

[Pancho sanza]

Don't scale down your edge just because you've been on a little run, good or bad.

The games don't have a memory from one to the other.

34-21 is not far off what you would expect over 55 games anyway, given your 57 % expectation.

Bottom line is if you expect to win 57 % going forward, use that to size your bets.