chasing steam w/o getting banned??

[johncrud]

look for a local... the best shit in the biz..

[skrtelfan]

You claimed before the line moved "anywhere". Clearly RAS plays are moving at some books before others. Ergo its considered steam. Add in that virtually every book moves and its clearly considered steam.

The specific example this book called "steam" generally didn't move globally for 15 or 20 minutes after I was betting. 15 or 20 minutes might not seem like "quickly" now, but this example is from years ago and then, 15 or 20 minutes was pretty quick. I was using RAS as a more modern example. Perhaps it wasn't as widely acknowledged as I thought, but there were people last year, specifically Baker the bank robber from Beyond Crapping, who had access to RAS's plays before they were released to the public. If you bet RAS at 1234pm and the line is released at 1245pm, and it moves at most books around 1246-1248, that isn't "betting steam."

Edited to call BC "Beyond Crapping" because the SBR nanny state is censoring all references to that board. Good job, not letting people "out" a board run by a guy who robbed a bank and has stolen hundreds of thousands of dollars from credit accounts.

You still haven't clarified why I'd be a "****ing idiot" for betting RAS totals if I did have access to them early. I didn't have access to those plays though, the example I was giving was from years ago.

Winning doesn't make you sharp. PC posted a basic math fail on deriving future odds for the NBA playoffs.

You mean the "basic math fail" where they put up a 6 figure offer on Matchbook and the total amount taken was something like $200? That's usually an example of "basic math win" on their part or "basic betting fail" on the part of the 2+2 clowns. I'm not sure what math you think was done incorrectly but I'd be pretty certain the math theory was done correctly. If he made a typo or a simple mathematical error, big deal.

If you are trying to give advice on pricing a future, and don't know the correct way to do it mathematically. You're an idiot. Imagine that. I don't know what Beetman or Custer said, but PC is a pretty good example of showing that knowledge =/= monies. There is much more to winning in sports betting than just being able to derive super accurate lines.

Actually I'm pretty sure PC is much better at the math part than the "deriving super accurate lines" part. When RTP started he put up a simple calculator to calculate series odds based on individual game odds, and calculating the odds to win the entire thing is no different than extending the tree further. If you can do A, you can do B.

Custer was part of that 6 figure offer that was such a "basic math fail" the entirety of the 2+2 readers and teh rest of Matchbook collectively put $200 on. Beetman was a "****ing idiot" for telling you guys not to bet at sportsbook.com after they canceled his winning futures, almost a year in advance of the CP thefts. He was also a "****ing idiot" for explaining that in the NBA, certain single digit numbers are worth more than others because of the end-game fouling. That was shortly after 2+2 had created the specific sports betting board and those threads were my first clue that the collective readership there were completely clueless--they kept repeating stuff like "end-game fouling??? Epic fail kick in the nuts" or whatever other "hilarious" inside jokes that board uses. Apparently those threads were long enough ago they aren't searchable any more.

[skrtelfan]

Once steam has run its course, there is extreme value on the other side. Fezzik uses a version of a model I started with in 1993 and he is probably the pre-eminent capper at this time. Not sure what the pseudo-intellectuals did with that thread. But, if you can find it, it has a ton of good insight into building yourself a "fade the steam" model. GL

P.S. I can't believe I came back to this area. OK, back to my regular haunt.

Fezzik has done well in contests but his actual handicapped plays have done quite poorly over the last few years. In my experience, he's more into grabbing the stale -3 after the market has moved -3 -115, although sometimes he'll play anti-steam on a MNF total or NBA playoff total. I like anti-steam plays myself although I'm pretty wary of doing that in smaller markets.

[yisman]

It got put in players talk. I think I was wrong on some things there.

What do you mean?

Anyway, funny post by Bigdaddy.