this area of the forum is where the intellectuals are

[DOMINATER]

This is my third attempt trying to get someone to respond .lets keep things simple. I want to know if two teams are playing a game and this is a pick game meaning a zero line ,each team has the same ability thus both boston or new york has a 50/50 opportunity. Now again two teams are playing all things being equal by this I mean a neutral field weather is the same food etc, lets say the teams are new york and boston this time boston is a one point favorite. we still have two teams boston and new york the question is even though there is a one point pointspread there are still only two teams so has anything changed the propability being two teams still exist have anything changed, please explain .

[Dunder]

Maybe you can get shantystar to rephrase the question. If you do, someone might have the slightest clue what you are asking.

[DOMINATER]

thanks dunder

[HedgeHog]

If your question is about the NBA, the one point fav has a 51.1% chance of winning outright vs 48.9% for the dog. Roughly the same for the NFL--fav wins 51.2% vs 48.8% for dogs. (according to half-point calculator).

[Dunder]

thanks dunder

I am serious.
I have no idea what you are asking. If hedgehog has interpreted correctly then he is a better man than I am.

[IrishTim]

This is my third attempt trying to get someone to respond .lets keep things simple. I want to know if two teams are playing a game and this is a pick game meaning a zero line ,each team has the same ability thus both boston or new york has a 50/50 opportunity. Now again two teams are playing all things being equal by this I mean a neutral field weather is the same food etc, lets say the teams are new york and boston this time boston is a one point favorite. we still have two teams boston and new york the question is even though there is a one point pointspread there are still only two teams so has anything changed the propability being two teams still exist have anything changed, please explain .

Yes, things have changed. According to Wrecktangle who is one of the sharpest 'Think Tankers' the most accurate prediction of a game's result is the point spread, bar none.

I'm with dunder though, not too sure exactly what you are getting at, but I don't think the books would change a game from pick to -1/+1 for absolutely no reason. There has to be some reason and if you don't see it, keep digging. Did one team have to play back-to-back away games, injuries, hot/cold streaks, etc.

[reno cool]

Maybe you can get shantystar to rephrase the question. If you do, someone might have the slightest clue what you are asking.

very well said

[DOMINATER]

guys the point that Im trying to make which has to be answered with a trigonomitry equation the last time I saw a sample of that was at penn state 1970 where i had a dr. Snyder whom i just made it by, with thanks to the lord

[suicidekings]

This is my third attempt trying to get someone to respond .lets keep things simple. I want to know if two teams are playing a game and this is a pick game meaning a zero line ,each team has the same ability thus both boston or new york has a 50/50 opportunity. Now again two teams are playing all things being equal by this I mean a neutral field weather is the same food etc, lets say the teams are new york and boston this time boston is a one point favorite. we still have two teams boston and new york the question is even though there is a one point pointspread there are still only two teams so has anything changed the propability being two teams still exist have anything changed, please explain .

You're basically asking what a point spread really means to a bettor...?

Spreads are set in an attempt by the books to balance the money placed on each side and guarantee their profit from the vig. The size of the spread shows the implied value that a book is placing on each team and usually corresponds to what they believe is the team's actual value. However, in some circumstances, these two things are not the same because public opinion will result in imbalanced wagering on a fair line due to the relative popularity of the teams (ie: The Lakers and Cavs). A fair line for a fave in such a game might be -7, but instead it may open at -10 due to this effect.

So, put simply: An opening line is a fair line, adjusted for public opinion to balance wagers.

In your example, the probability implied from one team being favoured as -1 (despite your assertion of them being very evenly matched) may or may not be a fair representation of the actual situation. You need to have some method to estimating what a fair line for a matchup should be and compare it to the actual line available or you have no frame of reference by which to make decisions.

Hope that helps...

[donjuan]

Wow.

[Justin7]

I can't understand the questions here either *shrug*

[floridagolfer]

. . . the most accurate prediction of a game's result is the point spread, bar none.

What, exactly, do you mean by this? If this is another way of saying that 7-point favorites win more often than 5-point favorites, yeah, we'll all buy that. But is there more to that statement than this?

[Murph_Smurf]

less trig ... more remedial english

[roasthawg]

Are you asking why the line moves when nothing regarding the game has changed? Money.

[mintybetmachine]

Are you asking why the line moves when nothing regarding the game has changed? Money.

That is your answer. Or the books just feel that the -1 one team will win and thus offer you +1 in hopes that you see some EV and bite.

[MonkeyF0cker]

That is your answer. Or the books just feel that the -1 one team will win and thus offer you +1 in hopes that you see some EV and bite.

Books with opinionated lines die hard.

[HedgeHog]

I am serious.
I have no idea what you are asking. If hedgehog has interpreted correctly then he is a better man than I am.

I was also confused by the stating of the question even though the OP said he'll keep things "simple". He mentioned a pick'em game being a 50/50 proposition, but then the line changed to -1. If you believe the line to be accurate then obviously the fav has a slightly better chance of winning. Still not sure if I answered the OP's intended question.

[Wrecktangle]

Yes, things have changed. According to Wrecktangle who is one of the sharpest 'Think Tankers' the most accurate prediction of a game's result is the point spread, bar none.

Thanks Irish, but it should read "most accurate single factor."

What is the controversy? If the line wasn't the most accurate, squares would get rich from betting, and then the books would go out of business.

This happens from time to time in the NFL. First part of this year was a "square year." OK, maybe a square 1/2 year. Books got it back in the 2nd half of the year, tho.

[BigdaddyQH]

You're basically asking what a point spread really means to a bettor...?

Spreads are set in an attempt by the books to balance the money placed on each side and guarantee their profit from the vig. The size of the spread shows the implied value that a book is placing on each team and usually corresponds to what they believe is the team's actual value. However, in some circumstances, these two things are not the same because public opinion will result in imbalanced wagering on a fair line due to the relative popularity of the teams (ie: The Lakers and Cavs). A fair line for a fave in such a game might be -7, but instead it may open at -10 due to this effect.

So, put simply: An opening line is a fair line, adjusted for public opinion to balance wagers.

In your example, the probability implied from one team being favoured as -1 (despite your assertion of them being very evenly matched) may or may not be a fair representation of the actual situation. You need to have some method to estimating what a fair line for a matchup should be and compare it to the actual line available or you have no frame of reference by which to make decisions.

Hope that helps...

Well said. The lines that you see are the lines that the linemakers assume will get the most equal action on both teams. The line is determined by two things. Which team is the better team, and what the linesmakers feel the public perception of these teams will be. It is really quite simple to be a successful gambler. All you have to do is eliminate the public perception angle out of your line and concentrate on what the line should be based on each teams performance. Then, simply find the "bad" lines. I know, not as easy as it sounds, but the fact is that many people over-complicate the process by trying to out guess the linemakers and that does not work. Stick to the basics. There are so many games to wager on that one should not be wasting their time, and their money, on trying to pick games based on what the public does, or where the lines may move. Did the spread matter in the Superbowl? Was it important whether you gave or receeved 4.5 or 6 points? Did the Books lose money? Case closed.

[Flight]

I wonder if the OP is even reading this thread.

[warriorfan707]

Theoretically and historically, the 1 point difference changes the anticipated winner very slightly, albeit not significantly

[reno cool]

guys the point that Im trying to make which has to be answered with a trigonomitry equation the last time I saw a sample of that was at penn state 1970 where i had a dr. Snyder whom i just made it by, with thanks to the lord

you guys are still wondering if this guy is serious?

[warriorfan707]

who knows, nothing surprises me anymore

[EHoneyman]

Great post! Keep it up!

[odusmykal]

Guys, i just read several great answers to a question i still don't even understand.. I'll play it like Jeopardy.. I'm gonna take your answers and make my on question..

[robmpink]

This guy is a SBR sponsored ghost. He called me a faggot, cunt licker, etc in numerous posts, which I reported for ha ha's. Nothing was ever done. His lack of spelling, combined with nonsense like this, combined with the lack of an infraction issued =sbr sponsored ghost to drive up traffic.

Either that or the mods working last Saturday night had their thumbs up their asses and did shit like they usually do when they get paid to work.

Which is it?

[Thremp]

Rob,

Lets not try to derail this.

All,

The only thing I noticed while skimming... well I noticed two things. Most of the other people have no clue what OP is about (myself included) and BigDaddy is off in lala land.

[20Four7]

you guys are still wondering if this guy is serious?

he's about as serious as bigdaddy is.....

[skrtelfan]

Books with opinionated lines die hard.

Pinnacle would disagree with your assessment.

[IrishTim]

Pinnacle would disagree with your assessment.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. It's pretty hard to be off market when the line your offering is the fair market price. With the amount of volume they have, you can be assured their markets are pretty damn efficient. Just ask Justin7, he worked there.

[Justin7]

Pinnacle isn't really ever "off market" - they define the market, with Bookmaker and Greek.

[mintybetmachine]

Pinnacle isn't really ever "off market" - they define the market, with Bookmaker and Greek.

[robmpink]

Rob,

Lets not try to derail this.

All,

The only thing I noticed while skimming... well I noticed two things. Most of the other people have no clue what OP is about (myself included) and BigDaddy is off in lala land.

Derail it? Sure thing Thremper.