Opponent Possessions Allowed / Points Per Possession

[Professor1215]

How would you calculate the following in college basketball:

Opponent Possessions Allowed
Opponent Points Per Possession

I would be grateful if anyone has any insight. Thank you.

[LT Profits]

Possessions = FGA-OR+TO+.475*FTA

[Professor1215]

Thanks LT. I had known of this formula, maybe what I am asking I am over-thinking.

Lets say Kentucky is playing Arizona. I would want to know how many possessions Kentucky and Arizona's defense allow a game.

That being said, I would need to find how many field goal attempts their opponents allowed, along with offensive rebounds, turnovers and free throws attempted.

Any ideas on how to do that?

[statnerds]

already in the line.

[James Marques]

already in the line.

It makes zero sense when people say this. The only thing factored into the line, especially in the regular season, is how big it needs to be to get equal action.

[flsaders85]

It makes zero sense when people say this. The only thing factored into the line, especially in the regular season, is how big it needs to be to get equal action.

Read this: http://www.beatingthegrind.com/sport...et-hypothesis/

[stevenash]

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/stats/

[LT Profits]

How would you calculate the following in college basketball:

Opponent Possessions Allowed
Opponent Points Per Possession

I would be grateful if anyone has any insight. Thank you.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/stats/

The defensive efficiency numbers at teamrankings are actually the raw results you are looking for. Unfortunately they are not adjusted for schedule like Pomeroy.

[stevenash]

^
I hear you, all I need is the raw data though to work with.

I use Hollinger for the pro's.
I've been doing well with TT's with it.
GS the other night for instance.

Boston for instance tonight, Celtics average over 102 points per 100 possessions, they average a little more than 100 possessions a game, Philly gives up more than 103 points per possesions, total is 205 right now, I'm hitting it now, should be 208-209.

[statnerds]

It makes zero sense when people say this. The only thing factored into the line, especially in the regular season, is how big it needs to be to get equal action.

and in your estimation, which makes less senses? my approach, or

people up and down forumville operating under the false assumption that they can go up against the best modelers in the world and beat them by applying simple stats?

sharp money, smart money, whatever you want to label it, exploits and stamps out any inefficiencies in the major sports betting markets. equal action? holy shit man, it ain't the 1960s no mo and broadway joe is long gone. there will never be equal action. there will be sharp money pushing lines toward efficient closers.

on top of that, if you disagree with EMT at least give me a solid reason based on logic as to why.

[stevenash]

holy shit man, it ain't the 1960s no mo and broadway joe is long gone.

And even Joe Willie Namath has fixed a game or two.

One game, Namath grossly under threw a pass for an easy pick six, after the game, somebody asked him "did you tank that pass",
Namath was like, "hell no, I wouldn't make it that obvious, if I'm shaving points I'd put the handoff to Emerson Boozer left of the gut, almost on the hip, sure fire fumble, and nobody would ever see it"

[James Marques]

and in your estimation, which makes less senses? my approach, or

people up and down forumville operating under the false assumption that they can go up against the best modelers in the world and beat them by applying simple stats?

sharp money, smart money, whatever you want to label it, exploits and stamps out any inefficiencies in the major sports betting markets. equal action? holy shit man, it ain't the 1960s no mo and broadway joe is long gone. there will never be equal action. there will be sharp money pushing lines toward efficient closers.

on top of that, if you disagree with EMT at least give me a solid reason based on logic as to why.

Well how is efficient market theory handling 2nd half lines? The line is up in less than 5 minutes offshore. How does that sharp money pound that line into such an efficient number in... I dunno... 15 minutes?

Easy. FSU down by 10 at half, about half the pepole think FSU will comeback and as such will take - points, the other half think FSU is giving up so they take points on the other side. Make it a tricky number like 6.5 in that scenario and you've got a pretty good line, at least for their purposes. Standard error on game lines and totals against actual results is incredibly low/sharp. Halftime lines? Not even close. Voulgaris proved this pretty simply in the NBA not even a decade ago. Not to mention sensitivity analysis these guys can run in a freaking spreadsheet knowing what they stand to lose based on earlier bets and how their halftime lines can help/hurt them.

Note that I specified regular season for a reason. Equal action is the GOAL. Often doesn't happen, correct. But during the regular season the BOOK as a whole is generally well balanced. The premise is a hedge fund, and they think like hedge fund managers.

You asked about simple models beating the best. Of course it's silly to think anyone can use simple numbers to beat a very strong market with a built in advantage.... if all you look at is numbers. What if the guy's system is to look for what he thinks are bad lines using these numbers so that he can narrow down his choices to focus on the news wire. Like maybe he thinks these basic numbers suggest an under, and then he reads something on Twitter about the coach suggesting a point guard spend time "relearning the offense." That screams under, and that is solid handicapping. Math guys, sports knowledge guys, and marketplace guys... if thats all you do (1 of the 3), you always lose in this game. The trick is to be ALL THREE at once. So all I'm saying is: Let's just answer the guy's fukkin question about where to find some data rather than get all sanctimonious about "market efficiency."

[statnerds]

So all I'm saying is: Let's just answer the guy's fukkin question about where to find some data rather than get all sanctimonious about "market efficiency."

you wrote 2K words to say lets just answer the question there lois lerner? you can't make a long winded statement and then take the 5th. so your premise has changed to regular season 2nd half lines only?

no sanctimony here chief, just stating facts. the market is efficient and over 95% of the people will lose long term. and books are no different than a stock exchange. they simply provide a marketplace for money to move from the uninformed and unprepared to the informed and prepared, and they take their cut. i hate trying to compress years of knowledge into 2 convincing paragraphs. side note: NFL faves 106-108-2 vs spread this year (does this make you feel they are simply hanging lines for equal action or that the Market runs at damn near peak efficiency?)

in this world, sharp money dominates square (somehow we never reach the tipping though where all square money is eradicated) for multiple reasons, BR size, proper money management, best modelers in the world. my only effort here is to suggest i feel it is a waste of time. but if he wants to go through the process and pick up some knowledge, good for him.

i made 40 units from june 3 til end of MLB season and didn't cap a single fukking game (that date being the moment my theory formed in the nether regions of my brain before bursting through to my waking thoughts.). know where the Market is headed and get there first. will save you hours/week and make you more $$$$.