NFL Teaser Gold?

[statnerds]

first, i apologize for completely forgetting i did all of these work LY. anyway, just thought of it this morning and looked up LY's numbers. started in the days before i was introduced to Wong's teasers.

before firing out LY's data, i must ask did anyone do any work on teasing totals? or are most people of the mind that points are random to a point (Dr Bob).

anyway, last year i slapped 2 qualifiers on 7 pt teasers. 1. only teams over .500. 2. tease Over for teams in the top 7 for pts scored or bottom 7 for pts against. this data was as of 12/12/08.

damn-it and i think i just noticed a glitch in my data. more work, hoo-ray.

anyway, decided to look at top 7 scoring teams this year and teasing the total down from week 8 out. if we assume that by week 8 lines get sharper, teasers should have increased value. anyway, allow me to stop babbling now.

totals without teasing for those 7 teams:
12-19-1

teasing them down, 7 pts:
26-5-1

giving us 70.2% chance of cashing a 2-tm tease.

going to revise my data from LY. also going to focus instead of teams over .500, Div leaders at home from week 8 on.

anyone do anything similar or have qualifiers separate from Wong that strengthen teasers or flip them +EV?

[statnerds]

alright, top 7 scoring teams from week 8 on LY were:

27-21-2 O/U

teased:

39-10-1

63.3% chance on 2 tm tease

also, BetOnline offers the 13 pt tease. i have played some 5 teamers with 2 totals allowed. i can't even imagine the clip that overs hit at on that one.

anyone got numbers on DD home dogs getting an additional 13 pts? off top of my head i think the 13 pt teaser w/5 tms is -110.

no data on Wong's teasers either? wonder how many of those teasers lost that would have won with the added pts.

[Justin7]

You need to capture about 21% to make a tease good. For the most part, teasing totals captures closer to 16%. This means any 6-point teaser on an NFL total will probably lose money in the long-term.

[THE PROFIT]

Where can I find all the info on the wong teaser? Also, the top 7 scoring teams & bottom 7? Does the opponent matter, #1 defense & so on?

[statnerds]

Profit - sure someone on some forum somewhere tracks the Wongster.

Justin - on a side note i was researching totals from this season to the feasibility of selling points and 35 of 256 (13.67%) posted totals finished within 2 pts of the number. that was much higher than i had expected to see.

and finally i am going to have to work my arse off to update my databases to reflect 6 pt teasers as well as i just found out 5Dimes offers +100 on 2 tmr 6 pts. of course i expect shaded lines on the Wongs, but still should be a winning prop long term.

GL

[vyomguy]

Interesting article. I think teasing totals by 10 points in NFL can be very profitable if you have the correct leans. Justin, do you have any stats for 10-13 point teasers?

[Justin7]

Interesting article. I think teasing totals by 10 points in NFL can be very profitable if you have the correct leans. Justin, do you have any stats for 10-13 point teasers?

They're great in preseason. Not good during regular season.

[DOMINATER]

I KNEW A GUY WOULD BET A TEASERtake team a and team b and make it a 2 team teaser.

[skrtelfan]

If you mean he'd bet the same team as a 2 legged teaser, that's a terrible play.

[arwar]

take both teams in the same game - i guess that would be a correlated parlay

[man3645]

Ive seen a few books that allow this

[skrtelfan]

Almost any book will let you tease both sides of the same game, and if they don't, they're idiots because teasing both sides of the same game is a terrible play. Even if the individual legs are +EV, putting them both in the same teaser isn't. That's actually an anti-correlated parlay because for example the Saints chances of covering a +11.5 teaser is anti-correlated to the Colts chance of covering a +0.5 teaser.