Live Betting: Fertile ground?

[twincities77]

It seems like live betting may be fertile ground for identifying good bets, but I'm not sure where to begin. What resources are out there to identify betting scenarios? For example, from college football:

Team A closes -4.5 hosting Team B. Team A takes the opening drive for a touchdown; there are 10:30 left in the first quarter. Live betting now has Team A -4.5 (-180). Is this a good bet? I don't really care if this bet in particular is good, I'm just curious how I would go about evaluating these situations. I have a few guesses, but they're really just throwing darts at a board. Any info is appreciated.

[durito]

Get the historical data.

[twincities77]

For what (and from whom)? I probably could get score information from box scores, but I'd have no idea where to get situational data (like 2nd and 7 from the 35, down 4 ... blah blah blah).

[Pancho sanza]

http://www.nfldata.com/playbyplay/

[twincities77]

Wow, ty for the link Pancho; didn't realize such services existed. I'm not interested in the NFL, but I'll look around for CFB.

Edit: And still open to other suggestions as well.

[suicidekings]

You need to have a lot of data and think about the possibilities before the game starts though, as potential 2H bets. Betting on the fly is a really bad idea.

NBA Totals:
You need to have a good appreciation for which teams start fast/slow and what their actual expected scoring for the game is. Tonight (2009-11-12) was a great example with the Cavs/Heat total closing at 179.5, which IMO was way too low. A fast start to the game boosted the total in live betting up to 202 at Pinnacle near the end of the first quarter, providing a 22.5 point middle... Outrageous.

Typically you're going to get the biggest spread near the end of 1Q or 1H, depending on the tempo of the game. By the second half, you don't usually see very large swings (at least in the NBA).

NBA Sides:
Pretty much the same idea for sides as totals. Teams that are particularly strong or weak early/late can provide good opportunities, as well as situations where one team dominates the 1Q or 2Q. It's not uncommon to see the score part way through the 1Q as something like 22-10, with one team dominating the other early (even if the differential corrects itself by the end of the quarter). If that happens to be the dog that gets off to a fast start, you can often find appealing spreads that give you a much better line on the favourite.

Again though, you need to have a plan before the game starts. If the early action agrees with your initial opinions on the matchup, you're in a good position to get a good deal. If it opposes your bets already laid, don't second guess yourself.


NFL
I do this less because i bet less football. Same principle though. You need to spot those runs by the weaker teams. Say the Rams put up 7-10 points early on due to a long punt reception, a fumble, or something else unexpected. You'll probably be able to find a favourable line on the fave in live betting.

[twincities77]

Thanks for the info SK; intuitively it seems like the best course of action would be to find out the mathematical value of in-game situations (like the example I gave in the OP) and then be aware of situational factors (like you mentioned) which may lead to some deviations from the math model.

[feltball]

Depending on where you bet you can often take advantage of situational plays i.e. starting field position in NFL when a squib kick is likely.