over/under win totals question

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  • unstandable
    SBR Rookie
    • 10-21-09
    • 1

    #1
    over/under win totals question
    I apologize if this has been answered elsewhere, but I couldn't find anything on a search.

    I was looking at some NBA regular season win total over/unders. For example, here is Chicago:

    Over 41 (-125)
    Under 41 (-105)

    Since -125 doesn't match -105, is there a way to calculate the number of wins the Bookmaker actually expects - it seems like it can't really be exactly 41.

    Thanks.
  • shantystar
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-13-05
    • 7299

    #2
    its ok pally!
    Comment
    • Bread
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-16-08
      • 23726

      #3
      Comment
      • skrtelfan
        SBR MVP
        • 10-09-08
        • 1913

        #4
        Normalize it to remove the juice and then put it into a poisson-based season-wins estimate. The vig-free line there is approximately ov41 -109/un41 +109, which poisson tells us is about the same as 41.23 wins.
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