Correlated parlays some1 help

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  • Unitage
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-24-09
    • 218

    #1
    Correlated parlays some1 help
    So I found a local whos allowing correlated parlays of NHL pucklines +1.5 and -1.5 with the total.
    Now Ive crunched some numbers and the record in Nov 08 that when the game went over the favorite covered -1.5 was 34-60 [94gms went over] just on overs thats 36% (getting around +450 and above prices]
    now on the flip side the record for the who dog covered +1.5 when the total went under was 75-29 [104 games went under] (getting +170ish prices
    ]
    the numbers for dogs covering and going under was similar at 72% in october as well.

    Now my question is whats the most profitable way to play this? Is playing both sides profitable in anyway?
    Any help would be great as I dont know how long this will last.
  • RickySteve
    Restricted User
    • 01-31-06
    • 3415

    #2
    Not as great as it seems.
    Comment
    • Unitage
      SBR High Roller
      • 02-24-09
      • 218

      #3
      yea thats what its looking like
      Comment
      • Unitage
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-24-09
        • 218

        #4
        anybody? where the math guys at?
        Comment
        • the_fredrik
          SBR Hustler
          • 03-27-07
          • 72

          #5
          Let's see what happens: So if you bet both sides at exacty +450 and +170, you would actually lose a little bit. Let's say you bet $1818 and $3704 respectively (for a return of $10,000 in both cases if either side wins). Of the 198 games, you would win 34+75=109 times, and lose the remaining 89.

          You would bet a total of 198*($1818+$3704)=$1,093,356, and get 109*$10,000=$1,090,000 back. So the result is a small loss.

          So, based on the rather few data points you have, at least blindly betting both sides in all games does not seem profitable. At those odds you mentioned. If the odds you mentioned are conservative, you might still have something.
          Personally, I would want many more data points (including exact odds for each game) before I draw any conclusion.
          Last edited by the_fredrik; 10-05-09, 07:47 AM.
          Comment
          • Thremp
            SBR MVP
            • 07-23-07
            • 2067

            #6
            Empty netters are the bane of this.
            Comment
            • BrentCrude
              SBR MVP
              • 11-16-05
              • 4665

              #7
              Just got a huge bonus at www.betdos.com a D+ rated book just to play these exact NHL correlated parlays and have already trippled my money.I do the -1 1/2 and over on two teams every single time.

              I do it for baseball too but this year sucked.
              Comment
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