Losing Streaks

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  • Actionbrett
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-03-07
    • 601

    #1
    Losing Streaks
    A while ago someone had an article regarding the odds of losing an 'x' amount of games in a row in Football, both pro and college combined and was wondering if anyone had an answer or guesstimate to my question below.

    I have an action account at betphoenix and use the money in that account to follow a few good services that have won me some money over a good period of time. Today capped off a 1-15-1 run the past 20 days. I could blindly do better and we were wondering how mathematically this is very very tough to do. 14 of those loses were in a row. Anyone know what the odds are of pulling off this feat?
  • Unitage
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-24-09
    • 218

    #2
    this is basically a 14 team parlay so i checked out the parlay calculator at sbr and duno if this is right but at EVEN +100 odds per game, $100 would net
    Mathematical Odds: +1638300 True Parlay Odds: +1638300 True Parlay
    Win Amount: $1,638,300.00 Premium Paid Over
    Mathematical Odds: 99.99% Premium Paid Over
    True Parlay Odds: 99.99%
    Comment
    • Flight
      Restricted User
      • 01-28-09
      • 1979

      #3
      Assuming that you are playing 'even' wagers, that is -110/-110 on each side, there is 50% chance of winning each wager. Therefore to lose 2 in a row you have:

      p= (0.5)(0.5) = 0.25

      To lose 3 in a row you have:

      p = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.125 = 1/8

      And so on... let x be the number of times you lose a wager (or win for that matter)

      p = (odds)^x

      So for 14 games in a row:

      p = (0.5)^14
      = 0.00006103515625

      Which is 1/16384
      Comment
      • Actionbrett
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-03-07
        • 601

        #4
        Originally posted by Flight
        So for 14 games in a row:

        p = (0.5)^14
        = 0.00006103515625

        Which is 1/16384

        Glad i can hit those odds, Thanks bud.
        Comment
        • SR
          SBR MVP
          • 09-10-08
          • 1317

          #5
          I have just about gone insane when i was incorrect on 6 in a row, 14 would probably have me quitting for awhile.
          Comment
          • blix177
            Restricted User
            • 09-20-08
            • 1520

            #6
            Next time you hit 5 in a roll wrong, buy both team for the 6th game and make sure you make it a 1/2 pointer so it wont tie.
            Comment
            • juuso
              SBR MVP
              • 10-04-05
              • 2896

              #7
              Originally posted by blix177
              Next time you hit 5 in a roll wrong, buy both team for the 6th game and make sure you make it a 1/2 pointer so it wont tie.
              What's the point of doing that?
              Comment
              • poker_dummy101
                Restricted User
                • 11-03-08
                • 6395

                #8
                Originally posted by juuso
                What's the point of doing that?
                uhh so he wins 1. it was a joke?
                Comment
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