Kelly Betting for newbie

[egr99]

Hey guys,

Playing around with the kelly calculator on sbrtools... Have read most of these posts, very informative.. and yes most stuff are over my head...

I do have a couple questions, if you guys can spare a moment...

I used the following as numbers in the calculator

Ind. Event. 6
-110 odds
Win prob of each play: 60% (yes its not realistic, but regardless im playing with this number)
Consecutive series: 17 (weeks of NFL)
Starting BR: 10k

No parlays, just straight bets... it calculates

669$ per play for the first 6

After 17 consecutive series it shows "Expected Bankroll: 104,502"

Questions are as follows:

1- How do you know what to bet week 2? Do I just re-do the calcs with new BR and change series to 16 with the rest of the settings the same?

2- Am i mis-interpreting anything or should my BR be 104,502 @ 60% over 17 weeks betting -110 ?

thanks,

egr99

[Wrecktangle]

Kelly betting for newbies = smoking crack for newbies: just say No!

[threeg5]

Kelly betting for newbies = smoking crack for newbies: just say No!

Why do you say that wrecktangle? Kelley is a proven method for unit wagering and it is a step in the learning process and should be learned not always used by all maybe none but known nonethe less.

[maxdalury]

well
1. you can recalculate each week, but it is just based of the percentage of your bankroll so just leave it at 100% instead of the normal bankroll, and you will see the percentage of bankroll needed to wager.

2. expected bankroll is different than median bankroll, median bankroll is the amount where there is 50% chance that your bankroll will below that figure and 50% chance that it is above that figure.

[egr99]

well
1. you can recalculate each week, but it is just based of the percentage of your bankroll so just leave it at 100% instead of the normal bankroll, and you will see the percentage of bankroll needed to wager.

2. expected bankroll is different than median bankroll, median bankroll is the amount where there is 50% chance that your bankroll will below that figure and 50% chance that it is above that figure.

Ok, I understand the answer to question 2.

What im confused about is do the wagers amounts do not increase/decrease after each betting set (weeks)? To get a return of 1014% over 17 weeks as the calculator says, i would still be flat betting on the original amount? Or do I just take new BR on wk 2 and bet the % indicated per wager?

thx