Comparing different Asian Handicaps (maths)

[smartpunter88]

Hi all,

If I wanted to compare different Asian Handicaps on soccer eg.

Home 0.0 @ 1.25 vs. Home @ -0.5 @ 1.9 vs. Home -1.0 @ 2.5

Is there a specific formula that can be used to assign a "rating" to each value, so it's easier to compare which selection above is expected to be more dominant?

[semibluff]

There isn't a formula per se, because each individual game is match scoring specific. Essentially the handicaps are a by-product of correct score betting. You could have 2 matches where both the money lines were 1 +100; 2 +350; X +230. However, the correct scores on the 1st match between 2 very defensive teams would be very different to the 2nd match between 2 attacking teams with suspect defenses. The way I personally handled that problem on Excel was to collate the correct scores on a match by average market odds, then revalue the proportion for the correct score total value for each of 1, 2 & X to correlate with the match. Then you would have to revalue each individual correct score by it's adjusted 1, 2, or X value and then reduce it in line with the true odds value of the 1, 2, or X.

Basically on a 1 +100; 2 +350; X +230, (book price total 102.5252%), the home team should account for 50% of the correct score market, the away team 22.2222%, and the draw 30.3030%, (before adjusting for the book price). In reality the underdog always accounts for a much bigger proportion of the correct odds market. It this instance it would likely be around 35% of the market. There isn't value on the home team, even at 45% of the market, because the the correct score market will have a total book price of around 140%.

Once you have the adjusted correct score odds and you reduce them by the 102.5252% book price to get the true odds valuations it's pretty easy to formulate what the true odds should be for the handicaps. Once you have an Excel sheet set up to adjust odds the only time consuming bit is acquiring a fair market valuation of each correct score and then entering it. Using just 1 or 2 books is quicker but obviously less accurate.

To be honest it's way more time consuming than it's worth.

Additionally I could never get my head around the math valuations of the quarter point where you have 3 possible outcomes rather than a simple win or lose valuation. Thus I only had true odds for half and full goal outcomes.

[laprikon]

Very interesting. Can you give some real examples

[Fred The Hammer]

Asian handicaps? Well they're petite with tight bodies, but usually their ass is a little flat