Profit from public craze

[dimon]

Good morning guys,

I wanted to ask a few questions. We all witness some crazy line moves caused by the followers of the system everyone know about so I won't even mentioned its name. What I want to know what are some ways to profit from the blind followers and books adjustments that this casing. We all saw the line movement on the Cubs game, sculping this game could of easily net you about 4% then the day before the WNBA game saw the line moved from +1.5 to -4...let's talk about what can be done to gain value and bet accordingly against this possible system plays.

[maxmad]

works more on totals i think

[Justin7]

If the line move is for no rational basis (i.e. JM systems), fading them will make money as long as he moved the line enough.

[ElCapitan]

Could either Justin or dimon elaborate a bit on this? Are you referring to getting down on the overnight line for the system play and then taking the opposite side once the line has been moved enough to justify a scalp?

[Justin7]

Say a line opens at -160 in MLB. JM's system causes lots of people to bet it. It moves up to -200/+190.

There could be value on +190. If people speculating on coin flips move the line this far, I'll fade them every time.

[dimon]

Yeah, and it is opened at -160 and moved to -200/+190 just take +190 and 4.14% ROI is yours...what I want us to share is the basketball line movements...sometimes it will have the line moved hole 5 or more points and you can get in the middle without any additional juice...maybe someone has some other ideas for how to play these plays

[spongerat]

no i think you summed it up, arbing and grabbing middles is the way to go.

[Corey]

Yeah, and it is opened at -160 and moved to -200/+190 just take +190 and 4.14% ROI is yours...what I want us to share is the basketball line movements...sometimes it will have the line moved hole 5 or more points and you can get in the middle without any additional juice...maybe someone has some other ideas for how to play these plays

How do you get such a specific percentage of 4.14%?

[dimon]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Arbitrage+Calculator.aspx

[Corey]

If the line move is for no rational basis (i.e. JM systems), fading them will make money as long as he moved the line enough.

Is it free to sign up for JM Systems so we can look for these opportunities? If not, what kinds of games do they give picks for so I can look at the lines on sbrlines for myself?

[dimon]

There is no need man, MIL was today an A bet...look at the lines and you will understand everything...one cool thing is BetUs who adjust the lines for JM plays has PIT at +150....how cool is that...4.5% easy scalping these two, no risk....wait and watch if it goes to the C bet it will be crazy...I just want to have some similar method for his NBA and other spread plays....you can get in the middle with no juice, but there is no guranteed plays this way...you risking to loose vig on one of the plays if it is completely off the spread...any thoughts?

[maxdalury]

ya betus will severely limit you if you keep going on the opposite of JM plays. Cuz they know that you can kick the crap out of them.

[dimon]

how do you know that? have they limit you before? i have no problem with 3-5K wagers with them

[maxdalury]

took them a little bit to catch on but they definitely limit you.

[Igetp2s]

Is there anywhere to see JM's past picks? Any proof at all of his claims? Even if he fudges the numbers, where can I find that?

[dimon]

just search this forum man...he indeed winning now, but many people here waiting for the collapse to see what will happen...books taking actions now, well at least some do

[Corey]

There is no need man, MIL was today an A bet...look at the lines and you will understand everything...one cool thing is BetUs who adjust the lines for JM plays has PIT at +150....how cool is that...4.5% easy scalping these two, no risk....wait and watch if it goes to the C bet it will be crazy...I just want to have some similar method for his NBA and other spread plays....you can get in the middle with no juice, but there is no guranteed plays this way...you risking to loose vig on one of the plays if it is completely off the spread...any thoughts?

I take it that since one side of the bet is +150, in order for the arb to be 4.5% the other line must be... (plugging #s into SBR arb calculator) -125?

What do you mean by A bet and C bet? this is part of JM's B.S. System? What does the bet changing type from A to C cause to happen?

I'm trying to look at yesterday's money lines history on sbrodds to see how the PIT v MIL moneylines changed.

[dimon]

I said that it was 4.14%...I think you could of got MIL at -131 early, and then PIT at +150

[Corey]

I said that it was 4.14%...I think you could of got MIL at -131 early, and then PIT at +150

OK. I notice on SBRodds you can see yesterday's games and the line changes. Is there an archive of past games on SBRodds?

[bettman]

good info is coming out here.