Split line versus straight line for soccer totals?

[acmeinvest]

Today I had a choice between 2.75 +105 and 3 -125. Any ideas on how to evaluate one against the other?

[hehfest]

Today I had a choice between 2.75 +105 and 3 -125. Any ideas on how to evaluate one against the other?

I don't know how you cap, but I attempt to cap lines like that @ both 2.5 and 3 if its 2.75. If its on the quarter. Hope that helps. LOL. Maybe it doesn't.

[LT Profits]

I don't know how you cap, but I attempt to cap lines like that @ both 2.5 and 3 if its 2.75. If its on the quarter. Hope that helps. LOL. Maybe it doesn't.

No, he wants to know what is the better play, 3 at -125 OR 2.75 at +105

[danmam]

It depends on how you calculate the probability of each outcome. Without your own handicapping (and projected likelihood of each outcome) it's impossible to calculate. Without that information, a rule of thumb I use is to find a site that offers alternative totals and see how each of them is priced at the book. For example, say Book A only offers 3 @ -125, but Book B is offering 2.75 @ +105 but also offers 3 as an alternative total. If it's priced at something worse than -125, it's safe to assume 2.75 @ +105 is the better bet.

[acmeinvest]

That makes sense, danman. Thanks.