Calculating Edge on Over/Under

[1]

Can someone tell me or point me to where I can learn how to calculate edge on over/under bets? Thank You in advance. - 1

[paco]

Covers, cleanuphitter, sbrlines

[MonkeyF0cker]

It's similar to spreads. Get a book called Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. It explains how to create push frequencies with a radius and determine your edge with that methodology. You'll need an accurate database of at least 5 seasons with scores and totals to accomplish this.

There are other methods to estimate your edge. For instance, if you're modelling games and you output a scoring distribution, you could extract your edge via the distribution. However, that's quite a bit more involved.

[MonkeyF0cker]

When I say totals, I mean closing totals on an efficient market such as Pinny, Cris, or Oly. Some take the mode of several efficient closers...

[1]

Thanks F0cker- have Stanford's book somewhere around here. I'll check it out.
I am modeling games that's the angle I was leaning towards.