Bet fav and dog ml every NFL game $10

**Baraldsson** · 10-02-19, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by The General

What's the math on betting every fav and dog ml in NFL each week? Yep, both sides. What's the stats show. Tks

The stats show a plummeting bankroll.

**Mick Sin** · 10-02-19, 01:03 PM

Sounds, like it could work! why not. Why dont you try it out for a month. Looking forward hearing what's it came out.

**The General** · 10-02-19, 03:28 PM

I would like some numbers going back till numbers began.

**TheGoldenGoose** · 10-02-19, 03:38 PM

**Believe_EMT** · 10-02-19, 08:05 PM

we can save this thread. always room for a lesson.

nugget of knowledge buried in this one is that it any calculation would be book specific.

thursday night, rams vs hawks

5D dealing 10 cent on ML, Pinny with 12 cents and everyone else at 20.

so before undertaking this effort you would need to decide which book you used and the handle for that book

and why is handle important?

in general, books with higher handles will have more guppies than sharks

books with minimal handle, coupled with generous limits, will attract sharper action

think you can fill in the blanks from here

GL

**The General** · 10-02-19, 08:08 PM

20 cent line any closing number choice as a constant. Tks

**semibluff** · 10-03-19, 01:25 PM

I don't have precisely what you're after. The data I have is based on 'soft' Tuesday lines which are altered to 100% 'true' odds for pick'em purposes. They also weren't altered precisely. That is to say they were altered to the benefit of the favourite to dissuade contestants from just picking underdogs. For example a -120; +100 line would likely become -105; +105. I have 6 years of data and it suggests favourites outperform underdogs and home teams outperform road teams. Neither hit 53% of the total points available over the long haul. Even the 'smart money' auto-pick, (IE making picks on Friday based on current lines and making the value pick). didn't hit 53% over the long haul, although last year the 'smart money' auto-pick outperformed all the human contestants with 55%.

1 observation the data threw up was that home teams and favourites noticeably outperformed their counterparts in the 1st half of the season whilst underdogs and road teams had a small edge in the 2nd half of the season.

Again, this isn't based on closing line but I strongly suspect you'd get very similar results.

**dj_destroyer** · 10-03-19, 02:26 PM

This is a joke obviously? You'd lose ~5% if they're 10 cent lines.

Team A [-110] $100 to win $90.91
Tram B [-110] $100 to win $90.91

You lose $9.09 every time in a pick'em which is 4.5% of the $200 invested.

This week:

Rams [+100] $95.5 to win $95.5
Seahawks [-120] $104.5 to win $87.08

Lose average of $8.71 or 4.4%.

-EV