determining the value of a goal

[Wayfarer]

I want to improve on my ability to find value in small market sports when it comes to moneylines.
I have been doing fairly well with totals and spreads and can clearly spot the moneylines that are way off but can certainly improve.

What stats and/or odds information are required to determine how much of an impact a goal is worth in the moneyline price?

[MadTiger]

Gol! Gol! Gol! Gooooooooooool!!!!

Value? Oh, about three fiddy.

All right. Real talk. The value of a goal (run) is different for different sports, different teams, different offenses, different defenses, different pitchers, etc.

If you spot some guys a run, it won't matter too much, because they are going to get blown the **** out, anyway. Spot another team a run, and it will be 2-1 them.

It depends.