Mlb betting system

[danshan11]

guy was a fricken flake scammer, he kept telling me pay you tomorrow every day as he lost. once it came to the end he skated out. man, a guys word is worth nothing!

[Alfa1234]

Hey Danshan, would you give that deal to me as well (book any wager on any Pinny line +1 tick)?

[danshan11]

sure as long as it is major market NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAABB and I dont do props!

[Alfa1234]

sure as long as it is major market NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAABB and I dont do props!

Was hoping for soccer and the smaller markets actually...

[danshan11]

Was hoping for soccer and the smaller markets actually...

yeah brother I only play in the big leagues! I dont mess with womens high school polo.

we can do UEFA and EPL soccer no problem

[Combato]

The word "value" is tossed around a lot these days, esp on sports gambling forums. Some people use value to mean a play they agree with for whatever reason.

I always think of value along the following lines:
1. Value means a Positive Expected Value play
2. If this play is made 10,000 times, it would show a profit after approx 10,000 plays
3. Example: If the true odds on a play show it will hit 50% of the time and I can get +120 on the play, then this play has value.

[danshan11]

The word "value" is tossed around a lot these days, esp on sports gambling forums. Some people use value to mean a play they agree with for whatever reason.

I always think of value along the following lines:
1. Value means a Positive Expected Value play
2. If this play is made 10,000 times, it would show a profit after approx 10,000 plays
3. Example: If the true odds on a play show it will hit 50% of the time and I can get +120 on the play, then this play has value.

I think most people agree with that method but where we start seeing people fall off their skateboard is what are true odds? For me it is the closing line -vig (that is the closest thing we currently have to estimate true odds)

[eaglesfan371]

sure as long as it is major market NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAABB and I dont do props!

Smaller markets have the softest lines. If you are able to create models that work, you would have better +EV long term in smaller markets, not the main markets you have just described.

Edit: Sorry misunderstood, you're only willing to book bets of those leagues, which make sense.

[Believe_EMT]

so no plays today then?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I guess its really over.

You're not waiting on the +146% rOI?