if you had to make a play

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  • danshan11
    SBR MVP
    • 07-08-17
    • 4101

    #1
    if you had to make a play
    if a person had to place a bet and did not know anything and just had to pick something what is the best bet? Home big favorite, Road small dog, what is the best play?
  • Waterstpub87
    SBR MVP
    • 09-09-09
    • 4102

    #2
    Under
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    • Alfa1234
      SBR MVP
      • 12-19-15
      • 2722

      #3
      Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

      Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
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      • danshan11
        SBR MVP
        • 07-08-17
        • 4101

        #4
        Originally posted by Alfa1234
        Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

        Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
        find line with value, we said the guy knows nothing, I am talking about someone who has never bet, what is the best option to get the best results. so you think a big favorite is the lowest possibility of losing, is the best play, right?
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        • nash13
          SBR MVP
          • 01-21-14
          • 1122

          #5
          Originally posted by Alfa1234
          Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

          Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
          i do the second option in college a lot.
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          • danshan11
            SBR MVP
            • 07-08-17
            • 4101

            #6
            I tried doing some research and literally cant find an edge on anything even a "noise" edge
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            • danshan11
              SBR MVP
              • 07-08-17
              • 4101

              #7
              Originally posted by nash13
              i do the second option in college a lot.
              does it work out or do you track it specifically?
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              • Alfa1234
                SBR MVP
                • 12-19-15
                • 2722

                #8
                Originally posted by danshan11
                does it work out or do you track it specifically?
                5dimes has a lot of college NCAA basketball ML over +10000. A lot of smaller bookies have the favourite at 1.01 (-10 000). There is value in the favourite ML at 1.01 every time as 5dimes is fairly sharp.
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                • Alfa1234
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-19-15
                  • 2722

                  #9
                  Originally posted by danshan11
                  find line with value, we said the guy knows nothing, I am talking about someone who has never bet, what is the best option to get the best results. so you think a big favorite is the lowest possibility of losing, is the best play, right?
                  Obviously if he has no clue he shouldn't bet at all because he will always be paying juice. If he HAS to make a bet though, I'd be conservative and place a bet with the lowest odd possible (1.01) and hope for the best to avoid losing the money.
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                  • danshan11
                    SBR MVP
                    • 07-08-17
                    • 4101

                    #10
                    for me my advice would be take a decent priced home favorite, good chance they at least dont get blown out most of the time
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                    • TommieGunshot
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-27-12
                      • 1601

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Alfa1234
                      Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
                      Finding “the best line” or “any line with value” means actually knowing something.

                      My first thought is Don’t Pass in craps (with full odds if you want). Second thought is just lowest denomination you can find. I’ve played slot machines for one-penny per spin. For sports, to get the lowest house edge, bet whatever has the highest push rate. That might mean you have to research something, so I’ll simplify it to first inning baseball. But I’m sure someone can meet the challenge of finding bets with higher push rates than that
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                      • nash13
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-21-14
                        • 1122

                        #12
                        Originally posted by danshan11
                        does it work out or do you track it specifically?
                        i take undervalued favs in the range of -500 to -250. i do list them as doubles or trebles at most.
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                        • snapperman2
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-19-10
                          • 2078

                          #13
                          It depends on the sport. In NBA, small road favorites (-5.5 to -10.5) seem to win at 53.5% ATS.
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