if you had to make a play

[danshan11]

if a person had to place a bet and did not know anything and just had to pick something what is the best bet? Home big favorite, Road small dog, what is the best play?

[Waterstpub87]

Under

[Alfa1234]

Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.

[danshan11]

Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.

find line with value, we said the guy knows nothing, I am talking about someone who has never bet, what is the best option to get the best results. so you think a big favorite is the lowest possibility of losing, is the best play, right?

[nash13]

Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.

i do the second option in college a lot.

[danshan11]

I tried doing some research and literally cant find an edge on anything even a "noise" edge

[danshan11]

i do the second option in college a lot.

does it work out or do you track it specifically?

[Alfa1234]

does it work out or do you track it specifically?

5dimes has a lot of college NCAA basketball ML over +10000. A lot of smaller bookies have the favourite at 1.01 (-10 000). There is value in the favourite ML at 1.01 every time as 5dimes is fairly sharp.

[Alfa1234]

find line with value, we said the guy knows nothing, I am talking about someone who has never bet, what is the best option to get the best results. so you think a big favorite is the lowest possibility of losing, is the best play, right?

Obviously if he has no clue he shouldn't bet at all because he will always be paying juice. If he HAS to make a bet though, I'd be conservative and place a bet with the lowest odd possible (1.01) and hope for the best to avoid losing the money.

[danshan11]

for me my advice would be take a decent priced home favorite, good chance they at least dont get blown out most of the time

[TommieGunshot]

Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.

Finding “the best line” or “any line with value” means actually knowing something.

My first thought is Don’t Pass in craps (with full odds if you want). Second thought is just lowest denomination you can find. I’ve played slot machines for one-penny per spin. For sports, to get the lowest house edge, bet whatever has the highest push rate. That might mean you have to research something, so I’ll simplify it to first inning baseball. But I’m sure someone can meet the challenge of finding bets with higher push rates than that

[nash13]

does it work out or do you track it specifically?

i take undervalued favs in the range of -500 to -250. i do list them as doubles or trebles at most.

[snapperman2]

It depends on the sport. In NBA, small road favorites (-5.5 to -10.5) seem to win at 53.5% ATS.