Run Line Wager Analysis

[Bsims]

I’ve posted a discussion of leveraging the MLB simple line file (that I offered to share with anyone) to back test a system for determining potentially good bets on the MLB run lines. The post is on ole44bill.blogspot.com. In the post I’ve directed anyone wishing to comment to this forum and topic. It does appear as though the system would have been positive in 2017 (and is running ahead in 2018). I’ve also decided to post the top picks in a thread on MLB Betting (a certain kiss of death for any system).

[A4K]

I ran a couple of RL systems through Bet Labs a few years ago. Let me see if I can find the results on my computer.

[A4K]

[LT Profits]

Just about profitable every year too.

[A4K]

Just about profitable every year too.

Really? I ran that sim a few years ago and banged it for a season and then forgot about it until I saw this post. Had a MONSTER system for NBA referees and visting teams but one of the refs retired. Not sure if it is as strong as it was.

[LT Profits]

Really? I ran that sim a few years ago and banged it for a season and then forgot about it until I saw this post. Had a MONSTER system for NBA referees and visting teams but one of the refs retired. Not sure if it is as strong as it was.

OOOPS I stand corrected. I did not sort by year so I just saw the 7 positive seasons on the top originally.

By year:

	2018	14-17-0	13.1%	+$405
	2017	106-162-0	-1.4%	-$384
	2016	51-78-0	-1.2%	-$155
	2015	25-39-0	-1.5%	-$95
	2014	30-33-0	22.1%	+$1,391
	2013	44-61-0	4.5%	+$474
	2012	82-91-0	17.4%	+$3,013
	2011	46-85-0	-12.7%	-$1,666
	2010	93-121-0	7.3%	+$1,563
	2009	159-219-0	6.2%	+$2,361
	2008	148-250-0	-6.7%	-$2,667
	2007	184-267-0	3.8%	+$1,699
	2006	172-272-0	-0.5%	-$217
	2005	98-159-0	0.1%	+$22

So yeah, not much gping on since 2012.

[A4K]

Not awful..lol

[hawkeye 16]

I like it. Thanks Sims.

[Bsims]

I've posted some new results for this system on ole44bill.blogspot.com. The new results include 3 more years of data. They still support the positive results in the past, but show more variability than I like. So I'll have to do a little more analysis.

[Bsims]

I have added a new post to my blog, ole44bill.blogspot.com. This one discusses two techniques that I use to filter past results in an attempt to isolate the best wagers. One uses grouping to identify segments that perform better than others. The other uses a graphical technique to identify segments. Using these together, I think I now have a solid system. Time will tell.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looks good, bsims. Keep it going. You could become an SBR legend.

PS, is that you in the avatar?

[Bsims]

PS, is that you in the avatar?

Unfortunately it is. Fortunately it doesn't show the rest of my 300 pounds or the cane I use to hobble around on.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bsims, it's all good. At SBR...we are all brothers.

You ever make it to Vegas? If so, let me know. We'll do Spearmint Rhino.

[Bsims]

Bsims, it's all good. At SBR...we are all brothers.

You ever make it to Vegas? If so, let me know. We'll do Spearmint Rhino.

Chucky, that would be great, I love Vegas. Unfortunately, time and bad habits have taken their toll and I don't travel well. Will make semi-annual migration tomorrow, flying north from Tampa to Albany NY. It'll be a tough day, but after I recover I'm sure I'll be able to hobble into Turning Stone casino some days and play video poker (with negative expectation of course, but it's fun).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bsims, I sometimes get to Turning Stone. Will catch up w/ u sometime. Good luck.

[slickeddie]

Thanks