what are the odds of a small basketball favorite winning but not covering

[Penguin7]

say a fave is anywhere from -1 to -3. what are the odds they dont cover but still win the game?

the thought process of this is if I can bet the favorite at a -105 line then take the dog on the ml can i turn a long term profit?

does anyone have a database that shows winning % for this spot? thanks

[Waterstpub87]

Your going to lose long term doing this, as you are paying the juice on both sides.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/

If an NBA team is a 3 point favorite, they should be a -139.4 ml. This works out to be 58.22%. So they should win by more than 3 50% of the time. win by 3 or less 8.22% of the time, and lose outright 41.78% of the time.

So for this example, say you take Team A at -3 +105 and team b at +134 on the money line, laying 105 and 100 respectively

Team A wins by 3: 3.83% -100
Team A Wins by more than 3: 48.05 % of time: 0
Team A wins by less than 3: 4.39% -205
Team B win: 42.78% +29

3.83 * -100 = -3.83
4.39 * -205 = - 8.995
42.78 * 29 = 12.40

-3.83 -8.995 + 12.40 = -.425

someone correct my math if I am wrong, but you get the idea. I gave you reduced juice on the ML as well.

[Penguin7]

thanks i didnt realize you had that converter. so my next question is now I need to find at what dog ml price is it +ev for certain spreads

[Penguin7]

for example today I'm seeing valpo -2 at -105 and can get N.Iowa ml at +125. according to the converter the dog is +0.29% edge. Also, Im thinking of doing this to help clear bonuses. not including the small dog edge if i just bet 2-500 on these depending on limits i could clear 2-3k in bonuses every month

orrrrr is my thinking off somewhere?

[Penguin7]

now im thinking that wont work because the fave would still be a -ev bet so would need a greater dog ml payout

[Waterstpub87]

I think you understand. Unfortunately, no simple short cuts to being a winner. Everyone has tried things like that before.

[A4K]

I think you understand. Unfortunately, no simple short cuts to being a winner. Everyone has tried things like that before.

Agree. There isn't a holy grail mechanical system for beating the books. On the rare occasion someone finds one they close it off. Remember when you coul bet NBA quarters at the quarter breaks? Free money it was.