How to calculate totals.

[Bsims]

You can use the offered lines to make a judgement on win percentage and Totals, but we already know the market isn't really as efficient as it is often claimed.

I'm curious. Why do you say the market isn't efficient? Actually, I'm not sure what we mean by efficient market when it comes to sports betting. In my mind, the lines reflect the public's judgement at the moment, and collectively the public's judgement is pretty accurate. I remember reading about a study done years ago on horse racing's para mutual pools (essentially set by the public's opinion). It concluded that when 10% of the money was wagered on a given horse, that horse won 10% of the time. That was defined as an efficient market.

I assume that translates into sports betting, with the sports books somewhat emulating a para mutual pool as they move their lines. The NFL data on totals that I presented above supports this. In all the data analysis I've done over the years, I have not found any contradictory evidence.