NBA - Leading at 3QT and lose Specials

[robjow]

Hey a few Australian bookmakers have the following special: 'if your team leads at 3QT and loses, we'll give you a bonus bet up to $100'. I'm trying to work out the profitability of these specials if I back and Lay them on Betfair. I think I need to find out - when a team loses, what % of the time was it leading at 3QT. Can anyone tell me where I could find such information, or help me work out the profitability of these specials?

Thanks

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you really want to work out the math properly, you would need more information than the overall percentage.

[robjow]

I was going to work it out this way: say for anytime a team loses, the percentage of the time it was leading at 3QT is 10%.

So I want to play this promotion on the Bulls who are paying 2.60 vs Team X. So their chance of winning is roughly 1/2.60 = 38%

Therefore 62% of the time they will lose and 10% of those times they will have been leading at 3QT = 6.2%

I can then compare this to the effective odds I'm getting by backing and laying on Betfair to see if its profitable. How's that looking?

[statnerds]

I assume this refers to strictly ML

I further assume live betting would provide a more 'profitable' avenue

[MonkeyF0cker]

I was going to work it out this way: say for anytime a team loses, the percentage of the time it was leading at 3QT is 10%.

So I want to play this promotion on the Bulls who are paying 2.60 vs Team X. So their chance of winning is roughly 1/2.60 = 38%

Therefore 62% of the time they will lose and 10% of those times they will have been leading at 3QT = 6.2%

I can then compare this to the effective odds I'm getting by backing and laying on Betfair to see if its profitable. How's that looking?

You're getting closer, but you still have a long way to go.