Line movement for second half bets

[xyz]

Half time is about 15 to 20 minutes (NBA, NCAA, NFL), sometimes longer for the big games like Super Bowl. My thought is that in such short amount of time, prices for 2nd half bets at different books and exchanges may deviate from each other to a point where arbs are available. This would depend on how books move their 2nd half lines during that 15 minutes. Do they try to balance their books or follow what the big books are doing? If some of them try to balance their books, I would imagine that substantial price deviation would often occur, especially at small books. Thanks for your insight.

[jayc88]

halftime lines do not move as much as you might think

[xyz]

halftime lines do not move as much as you might think

As long as the halftime lines move at some places, and not others, then this would create an opportunity for profit.

[Justin7]

If you can bet in Vegas and offshore, there are tons of arbs.

[Casi]

halftime lines do not move as much as you might think

Depends on the sport, NFL half lines move like crazy.

[cobra_king]

In a regular NFL weekend, maybe 4 or 5 games at the half move to the point where arbs are created. However these arbs don't "sit" for very long, even at smaller shops. Small books don't want to be exposed to the arbers which would create unbalanced action on the wrong side for them. If you can handle some variance, you are much better off making a stand alone wager on the soft line rather than arbing it with the sharper number.

As for the other sports mentioned, NCAA football also provides some opportunities, though not as many as you would think considering the number of games. NBA has reached the point where there are very few halftime arbs and not worth the time you would have to invest.

[Thremp]

I'm not convinced that 2Hs are efficient in any way.

[xyz]

I'm not convinced that 2Hs are efficient in any way.

I think this is the key insight. There is not enough time for the 2H bets to become efficient. It is not one big market where all the buys and sells are completely connected. There are shops that would lay off some of their actions else where. But in 15 to 20 minutes, it is more likely to find an inefficent line for 2Hs than lines that have been around for days or hours.

[BigCap]

I'm not convinced that 2Hs are efficient in any way.

Does this mean books are just trying to split action and not taking a position, with the understanding that they would not know what an "efficient" line would be?

If this were true then arbs should be readily available. My experience is that the odds adjust for 2H lines can move quite a bit, so this would be consistent with books trying to balance action.

[Thremp]

Arbs are pretty readily available. I'm just not sure that the closing line is anymore indicative of the true median than the opener.

[RonPaul2008]

Arbs can be had on halftimes.