Easiest Sports to Cap?

**Dark Horse** · 02-22-09, 03:54 AM

It depends on your methods and strengths.

Personally, I like the NFL for number-based angles, the NBA for motivational angles, and the NHL for a blanket-type approach. A little soccer and perhaps some WNBA sprinkled in for fun. I no longer play amateur sports; too different from pro sports and too many teams to keep up with (not to mention the refs). I salivate at the speed of hockey, which completely destroys any remote interest in baseball. I think I have to respect the athletes in order to be interested, which, again, completely destroys any remote interest in baseball. If I had to rank them I would say NFL, NHL, and NBA.

**G's pks** · 02-22-09, 08:12 AM

You are right the one you are good at. Also good point about betting everyday, or another one...all day long. Obviously those that over bet are stacking the odds against themselves and that is why losing and the "I quit" type posts are so frequent here. People forget the gambling season never ends and think because there is another game or tv game they must bet.

**durito** · 02-22-09, 09:18 AM

Whatever has the smallest limits is "easiest"

**Justin7** · 02-22-09, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by durito

Whatever has the smallest limits is "easiest"

Bingo! We have a winner!

**Jaug** · 02-22-09, 02:16 PM

Split decision on toughest to cap: NHL and MLB

**Wayfarer** · 02-22-09, 02:43 PM

For me in order...

NLL Lacrosse (early season lines are particularly soft)
MMA
NHL

**curious** · 02-22-09, 02:46 PM

Easiest to cap:
Canadian Football - undefeated over 2 seasons
MLB - TORE the books up 2 seasons in a row
NBA - > 70%
NCAAF - LOVE those big dogs on the money line
NCAAB > 70%

Impossible for me to cap
NHL - forget about it
NFL - I have no clue

**curious** · 02-22-09, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Wayfarer

For me in order...

NLL Lacrosse (early season lines are particularly soft)
MMA
NHL

What stats are most predictive in NLL Lacrosse?

**Wayfarer** · 02-22-09, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by curious

What stats are most predictive in NLL Lacrosse?

All I am willing to say is that with a basic understanding of the game and a little bit of work soft lines become EASILY identifiable.
Also if you can play at Pinnacle the -105 on totals are very easy to beat with a little number crunching.

**Rich Boy** · 02-22-09, 03:11 PM

Just quit while your ahead... This business, even if you win (which I highly doubt), will drain the life out of you.

**Arilou** · 02-22-09, 03:14 PM

There are exceptions to the rule that smaller limit means easier, but they prove the rule. Something like NLL Lacrosse can doubtless be crushed easily, and is doubtless even easier early in the season, if you care enough to do the work.

**Hotdiggity11** · 02-22-09, 03:17 PM

I've heard everything in baseball being the hardest sport to cap but the easiest sport to make money in.

**BobHarvey** · 03-05-09, 06:39 PM

NHL

**jayc88** · 03-05-09, 08:10 PM

soccer, need about 5 minutes to find a few winners each weekend

**wild willy** · 03-05-09, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by Wayfarer

For me in order...

NLL Lacrosse (early season lines are particularly soft)
MMA
NHL

You gotta be kidding where.
I grew up with lacrosse Know lots of these guys and people involved all have full time jobs and are paid peanuts.
I'm sure I could find a couple making a few hundred a game to shave some points .
This is unreal please tell me the book .

**Wayfarer** · 03-05-09, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by wild willy

You gotta be kidding where.
I grew up with lacrosse Know lots of these guys and people involved all have full time jobs and are paid peanuts.
I'm sure I could find a couple making a few hundred a game to shave some points .
This is unreal please tell me the book .

Pinnacle

Not sure if the few hundred you can get down on each game would make matching fixing viable, and with the lines being as soft as they are really isn't even required to do quite well.

The Greek will also usually put up a line for the spread

Best of luck Wild Willy

**Casi** · 03-05-09, 08:51 PM

For me it was boxing. For example some lines on the Klitschkos, they had no real opponent for a long time now and should have been higher favs on all matchups.

**wild willy** · 03-05-09, 08:57 PM

Yeah your right.
Not to metion there all good family guys.
Bad idea

**Wrecktangle** · 03-05-09, 09:27 PM

In order, From my experience, if you are not heavy into numerics:

NFL Pre-season
NFL Futures
Arena FB sides (if they ever come back)
NFL Totals
NBA sides, first 10 or so games per team
NCAA FB sides (specializing in only 1 or 2 conferences)
NCAA Baskets sides (specializing in only 1 or 2 conferences)
NBA sides reg season games 11-82
NBA totals
NFL sides

haven't done any of the rest...

**The General** · 03-05-09, 09:33 PM

Welcome to SBR, Wrecktangle and best of luck in life amd wagering, Sir.

**Wrecktangle** · 03-05-09, 09:41 PM

Semper Fidelis, General...

...thanks for the welcome.

**dwaechte** · 03-05-09, 11:56 PM

Although I agree with the rules of smaller limits = easiest, personally Ive only worked at and developed winning strategies in football.

**LT Profits** · 03-06-09, 10:58 AM

NFL Preseason, NHL, CBB (usually), CFB, MLB

Ironically, although NFL Preseason has been like printing money, I think NFL Regular Season and Playoff is the toughest sport to beat.

**DeluxeLiner** · 03-07-09, 06:38 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

NFL Preseason, NHL, CBB (usually), CFB, MLB

Ironically, although NFL Preseason has been like printing money, I think NFL Regular Season and Playoff is the toughest sport to beat.

What is your lifetime record for NFL preseason? I think i remember you doing well last preseason.

**donjuan** · 03-08-09, 02:23 AM

I disagree with the statement that the easiest sports to handicap are the ones with the smallest limits. Those are certainly the easiest to beat but the easiest to handicap would be the one that is the easiest to quantify, which is baseball IMO.

**LT Profits** · 03-08-09, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

What is your lifetime record for NFL preseason? I think i remember you doing well last preseason.

Yeah, last pre-season was my best yet. I am almost 65% since 2002, which is first year I was monitored.

Code:

Year	W	L	P	Pct
2002	14	7	0	66.7%
2003	12	8	0	60.0%
2004	11	8	0	57.9%
2005	12	5	0	70.6%
2006	14	8	0	63.6%
2007	14	11	0	56.0%
2008	20	6	0	76.9%
[B]TOTAL	97	53	0	64.7%[/B]

**Data** · 03-08-09, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

I disagree with the statement that the easiest sports to handicap are the ones with the smallest limits. Those are certainly the easiest to beat but the easiest to handicap would be the one that is the easiest to quantify, which is baseball IMO.

You post is missing your definition of the word "handicap" and where its meaning differs from the meaning of "beat". That definition must be provided as the OP used both words as synonyms. Besides, as a regular here, I cannot immediately make a connection between "handicapping" and "quantifying" as these two seem to be far-far apart.

**pokernut9999** · 03-08-09, 01:31 PM

Find where you can bet UConn women money line.

**donjuan** · 03-09-09, 12:00 AM

You post is missing your definition of the word "handicap" and where its meaning differs from the meaning of "beat". That definition must be provided as the OP used both words as synonyms. Besides, as a regular here, I cannot immediately make a connection between "handicapping" and "quantifying" as these two seem to be far-far apart.

My definition would be the one directly from Merriam Webster:

to assess the relative winning chances of (contestants) or the likely winner of (a contest)

Sounds exactly like quantifying to me.

**Data** · 03-09-09, 12:24 AM

Combining

assess the relative winning chances of (contestants) or the likely winner of (a contest)

with

easiest to handicap would be the one that is the easiest to quantify, which is baseball IMO.

we get

easiest to assess the relative winning chances of (contestants) or the likely winner of (a contest) would be the one that is the easiest to quantify, which is baseball IMO.

Do you need an explanation why is this another brain fart?

I hope you do realize that this is not just an exercise in critical thinking.

**chrisharvard01** · 03-09-09, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Find where you can bet UConn women money line.

**waiverwire** · 03-09-09, 04:49 AM

Assuming we're talking about easiest to beat, I'd assume that the less information easily available the easier. Something like Rugby should be great. Also, anything with an inefficient 'market' is going to be easier. That's why poker is so beatable...you don't have the best players in the world at your table all the time. Same with fantasy sports...get in a league without any experts, and you're going to win almost every time. Most big time sports, the lines are usually going to be pretty good, because if they're way out of line, the best handicappers will bet enough to move the line to where it belongs.

**Dark Horse** · 03-09-09, 10:24 AM

LT is right that different parts of the season may require different approaches. The NBA is a good example of that. Plus a very strong method may not necessarily deliver the next year, and then kick in again the year after.

The question can be interpreted in two ways: what is the hardest sport, or what do you find the hardest sport? Beethoven didn't start out as a maestro. He had to learn the basics of the keyboard like everybody else. But then he took it beyond the generally accepted standard. It was not a question of easy or hard. But of talent and determination.

In my opinion you should be able to beat the sport that is the hardest to beat. Why? Because that expertise pays off in the easier sports. It is generally agreed that the NFL is hardest to beat. So start there. After defining methods, refine them. This may take years.

Each sport requires a different way of thinking. To switch between sports, to me, would be like an actor playing one role in the afternoon and another part at night. I'm not that good of an actor. So I have a sports calendar set up for the year, where the only overlapping sport is NHL (which takes only 20 minutes a day), and one month (January) where the focus gradually shifts from NFL to NBA.

**packers51089** · 03-09-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yeah, last pre-season was my best yet. I am almost 65% since 2002, which is first year I was monitored.

Code:

Year    W    L    P    Pct
2002    14    7    0    66.7%
2003    12    8    0    60.0%
2004    11    8    0    57.9%
2005    12    5    0    70.6%
2006    14    8    0    63.6%
2007    14    11    0    56.0%
2008    20    6    0    76.9%
[B]TOTAL    97    53    0    64.7%[/B]

The best times of the year to cap in this order...

1) NFL Pre-Season

2) March-Madness
3) NBA Playoffs