NFL Prop bets and middles

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  • rookie
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-01-05
    • 682

    #1
    NFL Prop bets and middles
    What range of middles would you consider value bets @ -120 / -120 ?

    Here are my guesses:
    Passing yards: 35 ; rushing & receiving yards: 15 . Of course, the exact numbers come into play as well. Say, middle of 200 - 235 passing yd is more valuable than 270-305 one.

    Can the prop bettors having a consistent edge give an opinion about this ?
  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #2
    I'd look around. It's easy to find props at -115/-115, and even -110 if you look around a bit.
    Comment
    • rookie
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-01-05
      • 682

      #3
      -120 / -120 is just the worst case scenario. Yesterday, I had a no-juice 19 passing yd middle (of course it didn't deliver). But, what sort of yard ranges in various categories should be considered for middles (let's say @ -115 / -115 or better) ?
      Comment
      • dwaechte
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-27-07
        • 5481

        #4
        It really depends on the total of the number.
        Comment
        • Peep
          SBR MVP
          • 06-23-08
          • 2295

          #5
          I think you first need to find out what percentage of your plays hit in the middle by looking at a whole bunch of games. Once you know that, it is easy to figure out what juice you can afford to pay.
          Comment
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