Is this bet +EV and how much?

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  • dogman
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-28-05
    • 513

    #1
    Is this bet +EV and how much?
    Taking one NFL team at -6 1/2-110 and betting their opponent at +7-120. How would I determine the edge(if any) and how much to wager using Kelly C.
  • reno cool
    SBR MVP
    • 07-02-08
    • 3567

    #2
    half a point usually costs 10cents, 7 may be a more important # than most but I doubt there would be an edge.
    bird bird da bird's da word
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    • Ganchrow
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-28-05
      • 5011

      #3
      According to the Half-Point Calculator:

      If the true line were ±6½ EVEN, then were you paying -110 for the -6½, you'd need to pick up the +7 at roughly -102 or better for the middle to be +EV.

      Were you not to hedge and only take the +7 then you'd be slightly +EV at +7 -112.
      Comment
      • dogman
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-28-05
        • 513

        #4
        I meant to say taking their opponent at +7 1/2-120, not -7 -120, so the bet would be -6 1/2 -110 and the other side at +7 1/2 -120.
        Comment
        • Ganchrow
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-28-05
          • 5011

          #5
          Originally posted by dogman
          I meant to say taking their opponent at +7 1/2-120, not -7 -120, so the bet would be -6 1/2 -110 and the other side at +7 1/2 -120.
          Still no.

          Assuming the true line were ±6½ EVEN, you'd need the +7½ at about -114 or better for the middle to be +EV.

          The +7½-120 alone, however, would represent roughly +2% EV.
          Comment
          • unit1884
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 06-11-08
            • 938

            #6
            No book will offer value on the same game.
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              This would not be at same book. One book would have -6.5. The second would have -7, where the OP would buy the dog to +7.5 -120.
              Comment
              • unit1884
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 06-11-08
                • 938

                #8
                Oh, well if there is any edge it will be marginal at best.
                Comment
                • dogman
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-28-05
                  • 513

                  #9
                  How about -6 1/2-105 and +7 1/2-120. I guess the would be close to +EV. Ganch or anyone, I use the half-point calculator every day but how would I use it using the above figures to see if the bet was +EV. Thanks.
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