Taking one NFL team at -6 1/2-110 and betting their opponent at +7-120. How would I determine the edge(if any) and how much to wager using Kelly C.
Is this bet +EV and how much?
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dogmanSBR Wise Guy
- 11-28-05
- 513
#1Is this bet +EV and how much?Tags: None -
reno coolSBR MVP
- 07-02-08
- 3567
#2half a point usually costs 10cents, 7 may be a more important # than most but I doubt there would be an edge.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#3According to the Half-Point Calculator:
If the true line were ±6½ EVEN, then were you paying -110 for the -6½, you'd need to pick up the +7 at roughly -102 or better for the middle to be +EV.
Were you not to hedge and only take the +7 then you'd be slightly +EV at +7 -112.Comment -
dogmanSBR Wise Guy
- 11-28-05
- 513
#4I meant to say taking their opponent at +7 1/2-120, not -7 -120, so the bet would be -6 1/2 -110 and the other side at +7 1/2 -120.Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#5
Assuming the true line were ±6½ EVEN, you'd need the +7½ at about -114 or better for the middle to be +EV.
The +7½-120 alone, however, would represent roughly +2% EV.Comment -
unit1884SBR Wise Guy
- 06-11-08
- 938
#6No book will offer value on the same game.Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#7This would not be at same book. One book would have -6.5. The second would have -7, where the OP would buy the dog to +7.5 -120.Comment -
unit1884SBR Wise Guy
- 06-11-08
- 938
#8Oh, well if there is any edge it will be marginal at best.Comment -
dogmanSBR Wise Guy
- 11-28-05
- 513
#9How about -6 1/2-105 and +7 1/2-120. I guess the would be close to +EV. Ganch or anyone, I use the half-point calculator every day but how would I use it using the above figures to see if the bet was +EV. Thanks.Comment
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