Beating the closing number -spreadwise

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  • dogman
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-28-05
    • 513

    #1
    Beating the closing number -spreadwise
    If I beat the closing line by 1 point on sides and 1 1/2 points on totals then I fell I have enough of an edge. My question is, if you beat the closing line by 1 /2 a point on a side and only 1 point on a total is there still enough of an edge there?

    I am sure there is an edge in beating the closer by any amount but is there enough to make a move?

    This is meant for the college baskets.
  • Ganchrow
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-28-05
    • 5011

    #2
    See the Half-Point Calculator.
    Comment
    • accuscoresucks
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-03-07
      • 7160

      #3
      q:is that one point more than 5%
      a:if less than 10% =no play
      Comment
      • Justin7
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-31-06
        • 8577

        #4
        I wouldn't want to book your action.
        Comment
        • dwaechte
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-27-07
          • 5481

          #5
          Originally posted by accuscoresucks
          q:is that one point more than 5%
          a:if less than 10% =no play
          Comment
          • dmolition
            SBR High Roller
            • 10-10-08
            • 106

            #6
            You can start by comparing with the half point calculator the spread and price you got on your bet against the closing price and spread (I use pinnacle for the closing line).

            The only thing i would like to know which im not sure is if i bet a line on NBA like -7 at -104 and it closes at -7 -112 does this consitute beating the closing line too?

            Also related to the last question , I compare the sides i get with the ones on covers, but it only shows the spread it closed, not the price so i cant properly compare if i got an edge on that bet against the closing line or not when i have the same spread as the closing one, can anyone clarify this for the purpose of the discussion on this thread am i doing something wrong?

            Finally, should i settle with any edge above 0% or is there a minimun edge you need to make the bet EV+?
            Comment
            • Thremp
              SBR MVP
              • 07-23-07
              • 2067

              #7
              Originally posted by Justin7
              I wouldn't want to book your action.
              +1
              Comment
              • Ganchrow
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-28-05
                • 5011

                #8
                Originally posted by dmolition
                Finally, should i settle with any edge above 0% or is there a minimun edge you need to make the bet EV+?
                The terms "edge" and "EV" are generally used synonymously.

                Ignoring the margin of error inherent in the estimation procedure then you'd want to bet any edge in a quantity in keeping with an appropriate staking strategy such as Kelly.
                Comment
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