NCAAB Line moves

[Ominous]

I have noticed that there has been quite extreme linemoves on quite a few NCAAB games during the last hour before gamestart, ~~ 2 points on the spread. (On pinnaclesports and matchbook)

I have so far tried to bet these games on offshore books that have not yet implemented the linemove so I get on avarage about 2 points ATS and play with the -110 juice. However, these plays have not gone so well so far even though halfpoint calc indicates 5%+ value.

Also, it seems that the line is more likly to be pushed down (ex. -21.5 -> -23.5) on medium to big favorites.

Discussion: Do you think this linemove caused by dumb money? Pinnacle limits are pretty high after all so I do not think this question is trivial.

An alterantive strategy could be to play the dog(which has had increased spread) right before gamestart on pinnacle or something I guess, or to go only for surebets.

[smitch124]

I have noticed that there has been quite extreme linemoves on quite a few NCAAB games during the last hour before gamestart, ~~ 2 points on the spread. (On pinnaclesports and matchbook)

I have so far tried to bet these games on offshore books that have not yet implemented the linemove so I get on avarage about 2 points ATS and play with the -110 juice. However, these plays have not gone so well so far even though halfpoint calc indicates 5%+ value.

Also, it seems that the line is more likly to be pushed down (ex. -21.5 -> -23.5) on medium to big favorites.

Discussion: Do you think this linemove caused by dumb money? Pinnacle limits are pretty high after all so I do not think this question is trivial.

An alterantive strategy could be to play the dog(which has had increased spread) right before gamestart on pinnacle or something I guess, or to go only for surebets.

How many plays have you played with a 5% edge and what is your record on them?

[Justin7]

In most cases, line moves are caused by smart money. As you noticed, big favorites (above 20) tend to move up. I've seen this in NCAAB and NCAAF, and I *believe* this is not as sharp as a normal move.

If you had a good database I could give you a test, but it is just speculation until then.

[Ominous]

How many plays have you played with a 5% edge and what is your record on them?

Far too few to make any statistically signifcant judgement but I have about ten plays (on big favorites) with about 2-8 W/L. Also, many of the losses have been really far away from the line with fav wins of about 5 points when I played -21,5 so that doesnt feel so good.

In most cases, line moves are caused by smart money. As you noticed, big favorites (above 20) tend to move up. I've seen this in NCAAB and NCAAF, and I *believe* this is not as sharp as a normal move.

Yeah, I guess.

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Random though:
If it can be seen that a high %age of the big favorites "move up" in spread then that would be a strong argument that the line is indeed pushed by dumb money; because the general number %age of games with a stronglinemove is lower than what is observed for these big favorites.

Also:
With a two point+ linemove there will almost certainly be value in either the pinnacle/MB dog odds or the original line favorite odds... One just have to figure out where

Any input is appriciated