NFL against the spread

[Dougie Fresh]

Anybody know the longest a NFL team has gone without covering a spread? Just wondering.

[LT Profits]

Since 1985, the longest ATS losing streak was 9 games by the Bengals in 1999.

[Dougie Fresh]

Thanks LT, do you have easy access to a year by year, who had the longest streak and how many games, You don't have to go back as far 1985 but maybe several years back. If not no big deal.

[Justin7]

Interesting. You should expect to see that occurrence every 2-2.5 years or so. That might suggest the market overreacts to teams that don't cover, especially after 8-9 losses.

[HedgeHog]

I wonder what the ATS record is for betting teams that have dropped at least 5 in a row to the spread? Could be a good contrarian angle.

[durito]

I wonder what the ATS record is for betting teams that have dropped at least 5 in a row to the spread? Could be a good contrarian angle.

53.2%

[durito]

Interesting. You should expect to see that occurrence every 2-2.5 years or so. That might suggest the market overreacts to teams that don't cover, especially after 8-9 losses.

It has. Teams that have lost 8 or more games in a row are over 64% ATS the last 23 years. (68% as dogs)

[Dougie Fresh]

It has. Teams that have lost 8 or more games in a row are over 64% ATS the last 23 years. (68% as dogs)

how many games or teams?

[durito]

54-30-2 ATS for 8 or more losses.

328-276-2 ATS for 4 or more.

Winless (0-4 or worse) underdogs are also over 60%.

[unit1884]

Damn, thats a killer angle, guaranteed money!!!

[Munson15]

I'd heard about the winless dogs theory, thanks for putting a number next to it. Another theory I have been tracking for a little while is double-digit dogs in the NBA. I have them at around 54% since last March, anyone with a database know how they've fared over the years? Thanks if you can help.

[durito]

Around 52% since 1990-1991.

FWIW I would not suggest playing any of these "angles".

[Munson15]

You feel the juice has been squeezed out of these oranges, Durito? That 60% on winless dogs has been pretty consistent, hasn't it?

[LT Profits]

The Lions have gone 4-2, 66.7% ATS since their 0-4 start.

[gm2022]

The Lions have gone 4-2, 66.7% ATS since their 0-4 start.

hard in the nfl not to cover double digits spreads, at worst case u prob go 50%!