Pags' Plays 9/27

[Lout84]

Hey pags, I am not trying to come off as a "hater". I actually think you are a great capper and take your picks seriously. I always try to see if any of our picks contradict, so I stay away from those. I was just giving you the reason, why I like Troy +17, and would look forward to your reasoning why you like OSU -17 because honestly, Troy was my top pick of the week.

What is your #1 pick of the week, other than OSU -17?

[pags11]

lout,

I don't mind your feedback at all, or you telling me that you are on Troy this week...you were totally cool about the way you did it, I don't see you hating at all...

I am playing all of my plays this week for 3 units, so I don't really have a top play...I'm busy gathering info. and getting my last offer on matchbook matched with this Cal game, but will definitely give you and everyone else my analysis regarding my card this week on Thursday evening...BOL to you this week...

[Doc JS]

PLAY NUMBER ONE:

Oklahoma St -17 (+105) for 3 units

Pags,
I get the "revenge angle at home for OSU". I get the "they've had a bye week and come in fresh and Troy had a tough road game at Ohio State University last weekend" angle.

It's just hard to back OSU for such a big number when I'm not sold on their defense. They gave up 37 points to what I think is a very average Houston team.

Doc

[Lout84]

I cap Big 12 games. The line is too high. I am betting on Troy in the 1st half. I believe this game will be decided by 1 score and Troy could even win this game outright.
I agree with all of pags other plays though!

[pags11]

doc,

have you really gotten a chance to watch both of these teams play?...do you also realize this is the game that Gundy had his "I'm a man, I'm 40!" speech?...I'll elaborate further here soon...

lout,

[Tigers1230]

Great card so far Pags, other game I am hitting Big is Rice -17. Take a gander at it.

[pags11]

tigers,

thanks man...I'm watching the Rice vs. Texas game right now...they definitely have the offense, I just don't know about UNT, haven't seen them much this year...

[gopherbroke]

doc,
have you really gotten a chance to watch both of these teams play?...do you also realize this is the game that Gundy had his "I'm a man, I'm 40!" speech?...I'll elaborate further here soon...

[pags11]

thank you gopher...

[gopherbroke]

[Lout84]

doc,

have you really gotten a chance to watch both of these teams play?...do you also realize this is the game that Gundy had his "I'm a man, I'm 40!" speech?...I'll elaborate further here soon...

lout,

I am just waiting for you to talk me out of it pags! Lol.

[pags11]

lout,

you should also factor in that this is Troy's 3rd road game out of their last four and that they have conference rival FAU on deck next week...all of this will play a role...I never like to talk a guy into a play, but I just think you might be a little sour when the final comes around Sat. evening if you stay with the Troy side...

[bfour]

Is that all the plays this week? Like to see Va Tech out there, week is looking solid.

[regularguy]

Hey pags.

I sort of like it this way, anyway. Much more suspense.

I can't stand waiting to see if you are going to play UNLV.

You know I always appreciate your thoughts, however presented.

[pags11]

bfour,

barring any more injuries to QB's this should do it...seven plays...thanks for your patience this week as I know it's been a hectic thread...I can honestly tell you that I've worked even harder on this weeks card, giving it all I have...after four weeks I feel that I have a pretty good feel for these teams and am trying to get really focused...it's 24/7 football right now with a trip to the gym/ a little of my day job/ and a couple of bootie calls worked in between...

regularguy,

haha, thanks...you know I just got done watching the UNLV tape, they are really playing some great football right now...on the other side though, Ault always seems to have his teams prepared for UNLV and they've had a week off...at 4to 4.5 the line seems just about right to me...I have no real opinion on the game...hope this helps you...

[sparticus]

Good Winnings Pags, I like your plays, i am still at it i have some of yours on my list, i have been doing this for over 55 years now[ 70 years old] & like what i see/read in most of your write ups & reasoning keep up the good work.

[pags11]

sparticus,

good to see you over here...it's great to have a veteran capper like yourself in my thread...I truly hope I am still capping games and having fun like you when I'm 70...good winnings to you as well ol' pal...

[Lout84]

lout,

you should also factor in that this is Troy's 3rd road game out of their last four and that they have conference rival FAU on deck next week...all of this will play a role...I never like to talk a guy into a play, but I just think you might be a little sour when the final comes around Sat. evening if you stay with the Troy side...

Oklahoma St plays conference rival Texas A&M next week too.
I may stay away from it or tease it up +7 to be safe.

[Ralphie1412]

where are his picks?

[Andrewsurf]

Another new poster registered to thank you for what you do. I am deadly serious about keeping to a strict money management plan and know it's the only way to win in the long run. You provide such a useful service, not to mention a reptutation that speaks for itself. I just wish I hadn't paid some idiot in New York 300 bucks to make up picks and be an asshole to me over the phone.

So thanks again!

[pags11]

lout,

good luck with that bud...

ralphie,

all plays are in bold...

andrew,

thank you very much for posting...you are so right about money management, I don't add any late plays, I stick to the same money management plan I set out at the beginning of the year and follow it throughout the year...I'm so glad to hear that you won't be paying a tout anymore...glad to have you aboard brother!...

[AmishRakeFight]

Pags,

Do you have any thoughts on the side and total in the weeknight games this week? I know your not playing them but do you have any leans?

[pags11]

amish,

no opinion on the Thu. night games...will get back to you on the Fri. game as I may make a half unit play...

[DeluxeLiner]

hey pags what is your record to date so far this year? btw i really enjoy your right ups they make me sound like a genius when discussing cfb around the water cooler

[pags11]

deluxe,

I'm 14-14 so far this year...haven't hit my stride yet...I'm really hoping to break out this week...I'm glad that you enjoy my write-ups and analysis...I watch a lot of college football, that's for sure!...thanks man...

[shrax4]

Pags,

Surprised to not see you on Bama this week. You've been a fan of SEC dogs so far (though its been rough) and seems like this game should go down to the wire. Do they not matchup well with the Bulldogs here? BOL as always

[SoonerBS]

doc,

have you really gotten a chance to watch both of these teams play?...do you also realize this is the game that Gundy had his "I'm a man, I'm 40!" speech?...I'll elaborate further here soon...

lout,

He had his speech immediately after the Texas Tech win at home last year, Pags.

People that equate this year's OSU team with last year's OSU team have simply not been keeping up with their college football team handicapping. OSU is better at defense because they plugged some holes in the offseason with JUCO recruits and they have been performing a lot better than last year's defense. They are not "great" by any form of the word, but they are certainly adequate enough to allow what I think is the second best offense in the Big 12 to go to work and score points for covers.

[SoonerBS]

Oklahoma St plays conference rival Texas A&M next week too.
I may stay away from it or tease it up +7 to be safe.

In the press conference this week there was not a word mentioned about Texas A&M coming up. All the talk was about last year's embarassment to Troy. I guarantee you this game does not fit the category of "look ahead" as Troy will get O-State's full attention.

[SoonerBS]

With you on Duke and O-State, Pags and against you on V Tech and Marshall. I hope there is enough winning going around to make us all rich after this weekend . . . . .

[Lout84]

He had his speech immediately after the Texas Tech win at home last year, Pags.

People that equate this year's OSU team with last year's OSU team have simply not been keeping up with their college football team handicapping. OSU is better at defense because they plugged some holes in the offseason with JUCO recruits and they have been performing a lot better than last year's defense. They are not "great" by any form of the word, but they are certainly adequate enough to allow what I think is the second best offense in the Big 12 to go to work and score points for covers.

I live about an hour away from OSU, and many of my friends' went to OSU and follow the team. I am well aware of the 15 JUCO x'fers that OSU got. If you think OSU's offense is #1 in the Big 12, you are sadly mistaken. I would barely even rate them top 5. You have Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas all ahead of them. I might even consider Texas Tech higher. They are basically polar opposites of each other.

[White_Tiger]

where are his picks?

you'll have to look for it.

[SoonerBS]

I live about an hour away from OSU, and many of my friends' went to OSU and follow the team. I am well aware of the 15 JUCO x'fers that OSU got. If you think OSU's offense is #1 in the Big 12, you are sadly mistaken. I would barely even rate them top 5. You have Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas all ahead of them. I might even consider Texas Tech higher. They are basically polar opposites of each other.

If you can't concentrate on what I just posted then I am done dealing with you. I NEVER said they had the #1 offense I said they had the second best. I rate Oklahoma's offense #1 in the conference, but with the weapons OSU has I rank them #2. That's my opinion and you don't have to agree with it. I live an hour from OSU, too, and I have friends and players that go and have gone to both OSU and OU. Still, I don't believe that makes me any smarter than anybody else.

Dude, if you want to lay money on Troy then that is certainly your perogative. But, anybody that knows what they are doing and caps this game right will either bet Oklahoma State or not play it at all.

Good luck . . . .

[SBR Lou]

Good luck this weekend Pags.

[Lout84]

doc,

have you really gotten a chance to watch both of these teams play?...do you also realize this is the game that Gundy had his "I'm a man, I'm 40!" speech?...I'll elaborate further here soon...

lout,

After further investigation, the "I'm a man, I'm 40!" speech came after the Texas Tech game, not Troy.

[Mr Handicapable]

Pags,

I love Okie State too! I already played them at Wash. St. and a super easy totals winner in the Houston game! There was a comment on here about their D giving up 37 vs Houston....failed to mention they still scored 56 and covered! They have huge steamrollers on the O-line...3 RBs over 8.0 yds/carry! Troy should be worn out a little and playing on the road again on a fast turf...not to mention the revenge factor! I know you're not a totals player but this should be way over as well!

I noted that you like to test the Top 10 big dogs on another thread! Do you have any feelings on Ole Miss +22.5 @ Florida? I was very impressed w/Miss at Wake. QB Snead played well and they have alot of team speed....Wake barely escaped! Losing to a solid Vandy team gives them some value here imo! Any leans here? Thanks again!