Pags' Plays 9/27

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 12:44 AM

North Carolina Play Has Been Canceled Due To Yates Being Out. My play on UNC +7 (+102) was canceled out by a play on Miami -7 (+101).

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 12:44 AM

PLAY NUMBER TWO:

Duke -7 (+101) for 3 units

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 12:50 AM

dave,

never thought of it like that...lol...hope you are having a good season my friend...

wire,

actually my thread this past week was totally cool, the mods must of done a good job combined with people respecting my thread...not upset at all about that...I just want this particular issue that many haters bring up as a chink in my armor to be put to rest...I appreciate you understanding that...

austin,

thank you...hope that your season is going well so far...

pete,

glad to hear that you followed my picks last year and stuck with the money management plan!...makes me feel good to know there are guys like you out there...appreciate the support...

T$,

thank you for posting that...I'm glad that you have enjoyed my write-ups and that my insight has helped you with your capping...

**raidersfan** · 09-22-08, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by tobycsh39

O I guess I understand about the odds and stuff, and all the haters. I'm still new to alot of this and am still confused. You are still going to post your picks, you are just going to do it throughout the week with matchbook odds. I'm not worried about the odds at all, I use matchbook to, I just care about who you pick because you are right, it does give us a leg up. Is there anyway you are going to post who you made plays on yet or you could send them via email? Or are you just going to post them throughout the week? Thanks for everything so far.

Very well said, i also fall in this category. Thanks for the picks Pags

**White_Tiger** · 09-22-08, 01:10 AM

Pags week 5 bet so far:
#1 OKLA ST -17
#2 NC +7
#3 DUKE +7

bol bro.

WT.

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 01:20 AM

raiders,

glad you enjoy the picks...hopefully I can have some better plays this week...

white tiger,

good to hear...I'm still trying to figure out what's up with this Yates injury...I'm currently watching the Va. Tech vs. North Carolina tape...

**hawk 5** · 09-22-08, 06:53 AM

I don't think I've ever seen you take such a big number on a fav.? (-17 Oka St) Anyway, GL this week Pags. Be watching for the rest of your picks.

**TOOLMAKER** · 09-22-08, 09:33 AM

Pags11

I followed your college basketball picks last year until all the a-holes made you mad and you stopped posting picks. This year I follow your college football picks to a T. Any true gambler knows you are not going to win every week, but those of us that use your picks have a lot of respect for you and your hard work. I don't post very much, but in this case I felt a need to, just to let you know that I very much appreciate what you do. Please don't let the idiots bother you. Nobody twists they're arm to use your plays. If they know more then you do, then they should not even use your plays. Just felt a need to throw in my two cents. keep up the good work.

**gm2022** · 09-22-08, 10:14 AM

I like the OSU -17 Pick Pags, Gl this week(not that u need it)

**Homedawg** · 09-22-08, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by pags11

PLAY NUMBER TWO:

North Carolina +7 (+102) for 3 units

PLEASE WAIT TO PLAY THIS PLAY UNTIL THE STATUS OF QB T.J. YATES IS REVEALED. I'M HEARING REPORTS HE MAY BE OUT FOR THE SEASON AND IF SO I WILL BE GETTING OFF THE GAME. THANK YOU.

HERE'S WHAT ROTOWORLD HAS TO SAY (SCROLL DOWN ONCE YOU CLICK ON THE LINK):

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...aspx?sport=CFB

Even with Yates out I think UNC will be safe. Paulus has a BIG TIME arm. His decision making comes into question, but having a week to prepare as a starter may pay off. Yates just beat him out for the starting job, but I believe Paulus is fully capable of leading this team. I followed his high school career very closely and the kid is a player. I know you know you shit, just wanted to add that in cause you are on the right side. GL this week

**DrLuck** · 09-22-08, 12:03 PM

Tar Heels QB Yates out 6 weeks with ankle injury

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3602292

University of North Carolina starting quarterback T.J. Yates is expected to miss a minimum of six weeks after suffering an injury to his left ankle on Saturday against Virginia Tech, the school announced Monday.

here's a link for Yates

**bearmz** · 09-22-08, 12:06 PM

By Bill Cole | Journal Reporter

Published: September 22, 2008

Updated: 11:52 am

CHAPEL HILL

Quarterback T.J. Yates of North Carolina suffered a fracture in his left ankle and is expected to miss at least six weeks, UNC athletic officials said today.

Yates' injury will not require surgery. He will undergo treatment and rehabilitation and his status will be evaluated after six weeks.

Yates was injured in the third quarter of last Saturday's 20-17 loss to Virginia Tech at Kenan Stadium.

Coach Butch Davis said today that he will spend the week evaluating reserve quarterbacks Mike Paulus and Cam Sexton before deciding which will start at Miami on Saturday .

"We'll take into consideration lot of different things," Davis said. "The player who is going to play is the guy who is going to give us the best chance to win."
------------------------------
What really hurt UNC vs VT was 14 penalties for -100+ yds. 3 key penalties led to the UNC's Loss. Hate to bet on an undisciplined team (was on UNC LW). Hopefully the penalty problem will be addressed and last week was not the norm.

**bosterosoy** · 09-22-08, 01:21 PM

Pags,

Any thoughts on Temple + 3.5, Purdue +2.5, Navy +16?

**NEP Dynasty** · 09-22-08, 01:39 PM

Yates out 6 weeks...

**Lout84** · 09-22-08, 01:54 PM

My #1 Pick is Troy +17. Last year Troy dominated OSU is every aspect of the game and won by 18 at home. This year, Troy is no the road but has an even better team than last year. While, I think OSU will most likely win at home, there is no way OSU dominates Troy. I think Troy could win this one straight up, but I will take the points +17 Troy. This game will go down to the wire.

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 04:10 PM

N.C. State play has been canceled due to Wilson being out. See post #61 where my play N.C. State +8.5 (+103) was canceled out by South Florida -8.5 (+101).

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 04:25 PM

hawk,

I played Penn St. vs. Oregon St. earlier this year and they won by a ton...every once in a while I make a play like this, and trust me that I have plenty of reasoning...

toolmaker,

thanks very much for posting, I definitely appreciate you knowing that one isn't going to win everyweek...I also thank you for being in for the long haul...

gm,

thanks bud for wishing me luck...I can always use it...

homedawg,

there was part of me that wanted to think the same way, but after watching last week's tape when Paulus entered the game I just don't feel he will be up to the task of facing Miami's tough defense...Va. Tech was able to stack the line of scrimmage and Paulus was late with his reads, throwing two key interceptions...while there is a chance that UNC still may cover with him at QB, I'm not willing to risk it here...

drluck,

thank you for helping confirm the injury...I appreciate it...

bearmz,

as usual you are usually money with the injury updates...thank you sir...

boster,

check the status of the Temple QB who was knocked out of last week's game...I really think he makes their offense go and wouldn't play Temple in that game without him...I think the Notre Dame vs. Purdue game is a toss-up and that there are much better games out there to play...I have a very slight lean to Navy, very slight though as Wake Forest is a machine and if they build a lead early it could be a tough cover...

nep,

yes I see that, thank you for the confirmation...

lout,

thanks for posting...Troy going into Ohio St. after the USC loss and going to play a well rested and revenge minded Oklahoma St. team this week are two entirely different scenarios...I will explain more in my write-up later this week...

**thegambler86** · 09-22-08, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by pags11

hawk,

I played Penn St. vs. Oregon St. earlier this year and they won by a ton...every once in a while I make a play like this, and trust me that I have plenty of reasoning...

toolmaker,

thanks very much for posting, I definitely appreciate you knowing that one isn't going to win everyweek...I also thank you for being in for the long haul...

gm,

thanks bud for wishing me luck...I can always use it...

homedawg,

there was part of me that wanted to think the same way, but after watching last week's tape when Paulus entered the game I just don't feel he will be up to the task of facing Miami's tough defense...Va. Tech was able to stack the line of scrimmage and Paulus was late with his reads, throwing two key interceptions...while there is a chance that UNC still may cover with him at QB, I'm not willing to risk it here...

drluck,

thank you for helping confirm the injury...I appreciate it...

bearmz,

as usual you are usually money with the injury updates...thank you sir...

boster,

check the status of the Temple QB who was knocked out of last week's game...I really think he makes their offense go and wouldn't play Temple in that game without him...I think the Notre Dame vs. Purdue game is a toss-up and that there are much better games out there to play...I have a very slight lean to Navy, very slight though as Wake Forest is a machine and if they build a lead early it could be a tough cover...

nep,

yes I see that, thank you for the confirmation...

lout,

thanks for posting...Troy going into Ohio St. after the USC loss and going to play a well rested and revenge minded Oklahoma St. team this week are two entirely different scenarios...I will explain more in my write-up later this week...

Pags, I'm a young gambler and long time lurker. You are a hell of a capper. I hope to even become half as good as you. You need to ignore the hators. From what I've gathered in lurking the past year, most people on this site stink. Consequently, when you have a sharp like you, there is naturally some jealousy. These people are insecure. Please don't let them get to you. What do you think of Penn State v. Illinois? I like PSU a lot. Their offense is good and they don't have Morelli to throw 3 picks like last year. It will be white out. Illinois' defense is terrible. Juice still can't throw and unlike Missou, PSU will play zone and force him to throw into tight places. I like the OU play.

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 04:43 PM

PLAY NUMBER FOUR:

Marshall +15.5 (+101) for 3 units

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 04:45 PM

PLAY NUMBER FIVE:

Colorado +6 (+102) for 3 units

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 05:02 PM

thegambler,

thank you very much for posting...it sounds like you are a great up and coming capper...first off, I want everyone to know that I really appreciate haters staying out of my thread and SBR doing a good job of monitoring it...I do appreciate you having my back though...regarding PSU, I really like the way they are playing right now and they have been a spread covering machine...I also think Illinois has some major issues at defensive line...however, I do think Illinois has enough athleticism to hang around a while in this game, making the game a no play for me...hope this helps you...

**etothep** · 09-22-08, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by pags11

PLAY NUMBER THREE:

N.C. State +8.5 (+103) for 3 units

I've heard from NC State beatwriters (I live in Raleigh, NC) that Russell Wilson (NCSU's starting qb) will miss the game w/ an as of yet undisclosed injury & their top defender, LB Nate Irving, will also be out following a "lower leg injury" which forced him to miss most of the 2nd half against ECU.

just an fyi

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 05:36 PM

PLAY NUMBER FIVE:

Maryland +12 (-105) for 3 units

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 05:38 PM

etothep,

can you get me more info. regarding Wilson?...I watched him complete the entire game last week and am finding it hard to believe he's not going to be available here...thanks for any more information you can provide...

**etothep** · 09-22-08, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by pags11

etothep,

can you get me more info. regarding Wilson?...I watched him complete the entire game last week and am finding it hard to believe he's not going to be available here...thanks for any more information you can provide...

here you are sir:

Page Not Found (404) - NC State University Athletics

http://www.gopack.com//ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=9200&ATCLID=1587485

Page Not Found (404): It looks like you're lost... The page you are looking for no longer exists.

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 05:48 PM

I just got out of the N.C. State bet as Harrison Beck is a terrible back-up...South Florida is -8.5 (+101) at matchbook currently for those interested. Thank you Etothep very much for the information.

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 05:59 PM

I apologize to everyone for having to cancel out of two plays, but this was not information that was disclosed after these games. Thank you for your understanding.

**VegasDave** · 09-22-08, 06:07 PM

So pags are you just playing games with +odds because of valuer or are these games you have capped and love this side on?

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 06:09 PM

usckingsfan,

I'm trying to post mainly my matchbook plays that are usually even money or better with the juice, due to the criticism I've received about me recording my games at even money...these are the same normal plays I make every week, but I'm just posting the odds and numbers I'm getting with matchbook instead of the odds and number I get with bookmaker...I make half my wagers at bookmaker and half my wagers at matchbook each week...confusing I know...thanks bud...

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 06:12 PM

PLAY NUMBER SIX:

Cal -26.5 (-101) for 3 units

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 06:13 PM

Play Number Seven:

Virginia Tech +6.5 (+113) for 1.5 units
Virginia Tech +7.5 (-110) for 1.5 units

Each of these play will count as a half win or half loss in my final record since I am essentially making one play on a game, but at different numbers and different juice.

**VegasDave** · 09-22-08, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by pags11

usckingsfan,

I'm trying to post mainly my matchbook plays that are usually even money or better with the juice, due to the criticism I've received about me recording my games at even money...these are the same normal plays I make every week, but I'm just posting the odds and numbers I'm getting with matchbook instead of the odds and number I get with bookmaker...I make half my wagers at bookmaker and half my wagers at matchbook each week...confusing I know...thanks bud...

Well, do whatever you gotta do... but I don't see why you should change anything over criticism. From what I read 90% of people seem to be behind you and so if the 10% don't believe your record or don't like it, why should you change to cater to them? They probably will just find something else to dislike.

I think the change is a bit confusing and unnecessary as if people dont believe you when you are being honest, that is their problem, not yours... but, you do things however they make the most sense to you bud. Good luck this week

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 06:17 PM

usckingsfan,

yeah, thanks for your understanding in the matter...I really appreciate your support...keep up the great capping bro...

**MartinBlank** · 09-22-08, 07:18 PM

Yeah, Pags...I think it is time to tell the pissy whiny haters to get bent.

Ignore them. Ignoring them is the best way to rid yourself of them. Don't let them change the way you do business.

**pags11** · 09-22-08, 07:28 PM

martin,

I appreciate you saying that...I don't mind really doing things this way...I know that it makes it harder for you guys to read and check in, but it's not that big of a deal for me...thanks though bud...