Line movement on lsu bama

mv09 · 01-09-12, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by blackberry_juice

This is gonna sound crazy but what are the chances of a rigged LSU win. The BCS will be killed by the media if Bama wins and there's some sort of split with LSU/ Ok St. The BCS has to want LSU to come out with the win here or their entire system loses tons of value and possibly vanishes in a couple years. This would be the ultimate "BCS is a joke, doesn't even determine a true national championship" example. I'm not very into conspiracy theories or believe in rigged games, but if there was a spot where I'd buy it, it would be tomorrow night and LSU winning on a few questionable calls. Just sayin...

With all due respect, the chances of the NCAA rigging the game is 0.00%.

B1AZE · 01-10-12, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by 4seasons

The lure to buy or tease the LSU +2 is done in an effort to save what the Book pays out when LSU wins by 2 scores. Some will figure 2 points could be the difference, and will pay -110. Others will be lured to buy a point or so to make it +3 or +3.5, which will cost you like -130 or -140. Others will be lured to the tease, so they can make it +8, which again will cost you more juice. The Book much rather pay out on -110, -130, -140, than paying out on +120. The Book figures if you take Bama -2 or the -140 ML, buy points or tease Bama, isn't going to do you any good when LSU wins by 2 scores. All the Bama bets then lose. It's truly genius when the Book thinks LSU will win by 2 scores, to not give 2 points to Bama, but to make LSU the dog. Only the folks bold enough to take the LSU ML, will have maximized their gains. Though as you can see, many will be lured to taking the points, buying points and teasing in effort to increase their chance of winning. However, they do so by sacrificing winnings, thus reducing what the Book will have to pay out. To repeat, all the Bama bets lose, and if you take LSU and the points, buy points or tease LSU, you'll see that is was pointless to do so and you just reduced your own payout.

Now look at bodog (or bovada whatever), the most conservative Book around. Do you see their line? Do you see how they're not playing the LSU +2 game. Heck no. They have LSU as a pick 'em at -105 right now. So what does that do? Well for one, they're offering you Bama SU at -115, the by far best Bama ML anywhere. Ask yourself, why is the most conservative book offering the best Bama ML? If you like Bama, you're devouring the opportunity to have them SU at -115. Meanwhile, what LSU backer would bet LSU SU @ -105, when you can get 2 points at -110? There's no Book that will let you buy 2 points for 5 cents. A half a point costs 10 cents each. Thus, they're saying with their arms WIDE open, Bama backers welcome, and LSU backers go away.

Now look at the SBR Sportsbook, another highly conservative Book to say the least. Here they already will give you LSU and 2.5, thus making it even more alluring to those who want points (including the buying and teasing). Though they won't give you +120 on the LSU ML if your astute enough to go that way, you'll get +115. So if you buy a half point here to make it LSU +3, it will cost you -130. Risk 130 to make 100 if you have LSU +3. However, if you put that 130 on the ML @ +115, you'd win like 150 instead of just 100. That's an extra $50 payout for every $130 risked. That is HUGE! And that's what the Books are doing here.

Bowl Contest at Heritagesports has one person who has picked every bowl game right so far. This person's pick for tonight ... LSU! There are 9 listed as tied for second place, with 6 of those 9 picking LSU.

Before Backing Bama Better Beware

Who cares what bodog leans towards?.....

hydrosmak · 01-10-12, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by 4seasons

The lure to buy or tease the LSU +2 is done in an effort to save what the Book pays out when LSU wins by 2 scores. Some will figure 2 points could be the difference, and will pay -110. Others will be lured to buy a point or so to make it +3 or +3.5, which will cost you like -130 or -140. Others will be lured to the tease, so they can make it +8, which again will cost you more juice. The Book much rather pay out on -110, -130, -140, than paying out on +120. The Book figures if you take Bama -2 or the -140 ML, buy points or tease Bama, isn't going to do you any good when LSU wins by 2 scores. All the Bama bets then lose. It's truly genius when the Book thinks LSU will win by 2 scores, to not give 2 points to Bama, but to make LSU the dog. Only the folks bold enough to take the LSU ML, will have maximized their gains. Though as you can see, many will be lured to taking the points, buying points and teasing in effort to increase their chance of winning. However, they do so by sacrificing winnings, thus reducing what the Book will have to pay out. To repeat, all the Bama bets lose, and if you take LSU and the points, buy points or tease LSU, you'll see that is was pointless to do so and you just reduced your own payout.

Now look at bodog (or bovada whatever), the most conservative Book around. Do you see their line? Do you see how they're not playing the LSU +2 game. Heck no. They have LSU as a pick 'em at -105 right now. So what does that do? Well for one, they're offering you Bama SU at -115, the by far best Bama ML anywhere. Ask yourself, why is the most conservative book offering the best Bama ML? If you like Bama, you're devouring the opportunity to have them SU at -115. Meanwhile, what LSU backer would bet LSU SU @ -105, when you can get 2 points at -110? There's no Book that will let you buy 2 points for 5 cents. A half a point costs 10 cents each. Thus, they're saying with their arms WIDE open, Bama backers welcome, and LSU backers go away.

Now look at the SBR Sportsbook, another highly conservative Book to say the least. Here they already will give you LSU and 2.5, thus making it even more alluring to those who want points (including the buying and teasing). Though they won't give you +120 on the LSU ML if your astute enough to go that way, you'll get +115. So if you buy a half point here to make it LSU +3, it will cost you -130. Risk 130 to make 100 if you have LSU +3. However, if you put that 130 on the ML @ +115, you'd win like 150 instead of just 100. That's an extra $50 payout for every $130 risked. That is HUGE! And that's what the Books are doing here.

Bowl Contest at Heritagesports has one person who has picked every bowl game right so far. This person's pick for tonight ... LSU! There are 9 listed as tied for second place, with 6 of those 9 picking LSU.

Before Backing Bama Better Beware

You hired by the books? Great work if so. You probably got a few LSU bettors out of this post sprinkled about the internets.

odog11 · 01-10-12, 10:33 AM

Wow, just wow. Next time someone touts a tripple reverse fake-out conspiracy theory on RLM I ain't listening. It's no guarantee, but when you see movement like this you are foolish to bet against it.

jwbama23 · 01-10-12, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

Jwbama So what you're telling me is the better team lost at home ??? GTFOH lol

Yes I was telling you that

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

Eddie are you serious about the significant coaching edge ??? Saban has lost two games in a row to Miles, and have you checked Miles bowl record ?? Saban bowl record vs Miles bowl record in the last 6 years is not even comparable!

Haha Z I am still looking for you

balls2wall · 01-19-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

yes they do have 13.....jealousy is not attractive

Sorry man. I just now saw this. I was looking at my sbr points and saw someone gave me a point for a post so I looked it up and kept going in the thread until I found your post.

If you really believe the tide now have 14 championships then that tells me all I need to know. You are obviously a homer.

It has nothing to do with jealousy. It has to do with bammers claiming championships they never had any business claiming. Your mythical national championships are well documented. If you would like to see let me know and I will find some links for you. I know youtube has quite a few videos on the subject.

jwbama23 · 01-19-12, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by balls2wall

Sorry man. I just now saw this. I was looking at my sbr points and saw someone gave me a point for a post so I looked it up and kept going in the thread until I found your post.

If you really believe the tide now have 14 championships then that tells me all I need to know. You are obviously a homer.

It has nothing to do with jealousy. It has to do with bammers claiming championships they never had any business claiming. Your mythical national championships are well documented. If you would like to see let me know and I will find some links for you. I know youtube has quite a few videos on the subject.

because you tube is official

PAULYPOKER · 01-19-12, 07:09 PM