Line movement on lsu bama

[EddieMunster]

The more I think about this game, the more I like LSU. So tough to win at Bama, and the Bayou Bengals did it. Normally, the revenge factor would help Bama, but in a Championship game, there is no big motivational edge. Possibly LSU might even have a bit of an edge in that they are playing for an undefeated season. You guys got me thinking maybe I am wrong in thinking Miles is not a good coach, but still, I wonder how good that enormous LSU talent could be with the best coach in college football, Urban Meyer, at the helm.

[MikeT007]

Location won't matter in this game ....seriously?? Both teams will let it all hang out and it wouldnt matter if the game was in Alaska. It's lsu not the saints

[LT Profits]

I am usually a fan of RLM, and Bama is serious RLM here. That said, I just don't see LSU losing this game as I think they are a lot better than Alabama than apparently people with more money than me think. That said, LSU may make a nice rare CFB team to throw in a teaser in the 2/2.5 zone.

[Sabear]

moving to bama -2 everywhere now.

[naslax13]

Field goal kicker was the only difference last time,what game did you watch??

my main concern is if this kid is going to be able to kick tomorrow or if he's gona suck again

[PAULYPOKER]

my main concern is if this kid is going to be able to kick tomorrow or if he's gona suck again

Bama will not need to depend on him trust me,Tide and the Over............

[HoldEmHook!!]

It's moved to -2 Bama, this line is starting to piss me off...not only did they sneak Bama into this game, now they are even favored!!!

Sneaks ass, they earned it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[LT Profits]

Sneaks ass, they earned it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But they are still only the SECOND best team in the country and should not be favored.

[HoldEmHook!!]

You are talking about a fan base that claims to have 13 national championships when any rational person knows they don't.

yes they do have 13.....jealousy is not attractive

[PAULYPOKER]

But they are still only the SECOND best team in the country and should not be favored.

Tomorrow night they will be #1 at approximately a few strokes to midnight.............

[LT Profits]

Tomorrow night they will be #1 at approximately a few strokes to midnight.............

I am not talking about rankings, I just think LSU is the much better team.

[No coincidences]

I am not talking about rankings, I just think LSU is the much better team.

Did you watch the first game? I know LSU won, but Alabama was pretty controlling in the trenches.

[PAULYPOKER]

I am not talking about rankings, I just think LSU is the much better team.

It is the Super bowl of college football,

the winner will be the best team in the nation

You are trying to say the team with the best regular season record is the best team regardless....

[LT Profits]

No I am saying that LSU is the better team entering the game and they would be the better team even if Bama would have won the first time. LSU will prove it on the field tomorrow night.

[No coincidences]

No I am saying that LSU is the better team entering the game and they would be the better team even if Bama would have won the first time. LSU will prove it on the field tomorrow night.

I don't know how you can come to the conclusion that LSU was unquestionably the better team after watching that first game.

[LT Profits]

Did you watch the first game? I know LSU won, but Alabama was pretty controlling in the trenches.

Not really, LSU actually rushed for like 140 yards. Nobody else has come close to that vs. Bama. LSU defense will stuff Richardson again and Saban will keep force-feeding him the ball anyway because he is a stubborn mule and will keep waiting for him to bust one. I think Alabama's only chance of winning this game is if Tide throws the ball fairly well early to loosen up LSU defense a bit and THEN attack with Trent, but I think Saban is too ultra-conservative to do that.

[LT Profits]

I don't know how you can come to the conclusion that LSU was unquestionably the better team after watching that first game.

Defenses are equal. LSU offense is more diverse. That's what it comes down to.

[PAULYPOKER]

Defense are equal. LSU offense is more diverse. That's what it come down to.

r u an LSU fan?

[LT Profits]

No not at all, not a "fan" of any team except the one I bet on. LSU has been the best team in the country all year.

[No coincidences]

Not really, LSU actually rushed for like 140 yards. Nobody else has come close to that vs. Bama. LSU defense will stuff Richardson again and Saban will keep force-feeding him the ball anyway because he is a stubborn mule and will keep waiting for him to bust one. I think Alabama's only chance of winning this game is if Tide throws the ball fairly well early to loosen up LSU defense a bit and THEN attack with Trent, but I think Saban is too ultra-conservative to do that.

You and I saw different things.

I do agree re: Saban. I would give the ST edge to LSU -- not sure where else they hold any kind of advantage.

[PAULYPOKER]

No not at all, not a "fan" of any team except the one I bet on. LSU has been the best team in the country all year.

I understand now...........

[4seasons]

As ALWAYS, especially in a game like this, can all come down to the zebras. Just the spotting of the ball, much less personal foul calls (or non-calls), inadvertent whistles, etc., they can and probably will determine the outcome of the game. No matter who we all think is the better team, no matter who wins the game even, it really doesn't mean Jack. It's all about , and not about the outcome of a meaningless game. Call it the Super Bowl of College all you want. Call it the game/team of the history of our galaxy for all I'm concerned. It's just a lousy game. That's all it is, so no need to over-analyze anymore. There is no analysis of who the zebras want to win, and that's the only anaylsis that you need to know, as that is how the game will be won.

The hype of these games notoriously always fogs the minds of the gamblers. The game itself is notoriously always anti-climatic. It's pretty simple to us stat men that LSU will win. A simple stat like Bama's defense has 12 INT's on the yr to LSU's 18. Milliner leads 'Bama with 3, while Clairbourne has 6. 2 guys from Bama have 2 INT's, while 5 guys from LSU have 2 each.

LSU had a kickoff return for a TD. Bama did not. Bama had one punt return for a TD, while Mathieu had 2 on the season himself. LSU QB ratings are higher than Bama's, as LSU threw for 21 TD's & just 4 INT's, to Bama's 16 TD's & 7 INT's. Bama got sacked more times and for more yardage lost. Only 4 different guys all year scored rushing TD's for Bama, while 7 different guys for LSU ran one in. And don't think for a second that LSU won't have a home-field advantage, and since they already won on Bama's turf, kaboom!

We can over analyze the thing forever you see. Fact is, 'Bama is getting pumped by the media, like one site that now headlines " Action surges on Tide." You'd think the League would want Bama to win too, to put to bed all the folks who were against a rematch. If Bama wins, the system looks good. Fact is, League cares about # 1. That's what matters here folks, the , and not who is the better team.

So some big action is loading on Bama. Have many times seen the money move to one side on a major event, and a few astute people here know better. You know that LSU in The Dome, ranked # 1, already beat Bama in Bama, ought to be favored by 1 here or something. Somehow, they have the action coming in on Bama, go Bama, Ra Ra Bama, suck them in as much as possible on Bama. If that's the case, you bet LSU as the better team who will win, on top of the lean of the money was on Bama. Bet the better team, and fade the line movement? You really can't lose, just hope the Zebra didn't mortgage his house against you.

[4seasons]

Alow me to add, that I would say a majority do not want LSU to have an undefeated national championship season. Folks will just bet Bama that it's not going to happen. Though you know, if LSU loses, they go down as choke artists and a nightmareish end to a perfect season. Do not see this LSU team choking. See them rising to the occasion, seizing the moment, and being the champions they are. Go away zebra

[Monte]

You and I saw different things.

I do agree re: Saban. I would give the ST edge to LSU -- not sure where else they hold any kind of advantage.

You are just nuts, and iam saying that as no fan of either team...
talk about giving the dominant team all season NO credit at all, what a moron.

[blackberry_juice]

Alow me to add, that I would say a majority do not want LSU to have an undefeated national championship season. Folks will just bet Bama that it's not going to happen. Though you know, if LSU loses, they go down as choke artists and a nightmareish end to a perfect season. Do not see this LSU team choking. See them rising to the occasion, seizing the moment, and being the champions they are. Go away zebra

This is gonna sound crazy but what are the chances of a rigged LSU win. The BCS will be killed by the media if Bama wins and there's some sort of split with LSU/ Ok St. The BCS has to want LSU to come out with the win here or their entire system loses tons of value and possibly vanishes in a couple years. This would be the ultimate "BCS is a joke, doesn't even determine a true national championship" example. I'm not very into conspiracy theories or believe in rigged games, but if there was a spot where I'd buy it, it would be tomorrow night and LSU winning on a few questionable calls. Just sayin...

[B1AZE]

Books clearly comfortable taking LSU $$$$.

They're sitting at +2 / +2.5 now which allows you to buy to +3 or buy a point to +3.5 (does any LSU backer see them losing by more than a FG?). Also teasing LSU now gets you over a touchdown with the hook. Moneyline also now at +120ish.

Also realize the public money comes in today and it was probably going to be 2/3'rds LSU anyways and now it's an even better proposition.

[PAULYPOKER]

We can over analyze the thing forever you see. Fact is, 'Bama is getting pumped by the media, like one site that now headlines " Action surges on Tide." You'd think the League would want Bama to win too, to put to bed all the folks who were against a rematch. If Bama wins, the system looks good. Fact is, League cares about # 1. That's what matters here folks, the , and not who is the better team.

[B1AZE]

I mean they BEAT Alabama at Alabama already.

Now they're dogs and not only dogs but you can get key numbers and +120?

CMON man.....Bama wins. No doubt about it and the books clean up on dipshit bettors that can't see a fist ******* coming.

[PAULYPOKER]

Alabama missed four field goals, including Cade Foster's 52-yard attempt after the Tide got the ball first in the extra period.

Top Performers
Passing: A. McCarron (ALA) - 199 YDS, 1 INT
Rushing: T. Richardson (ALA) - 23 CAR, 89 YDS
Receiving: T. Richardson (ALA) - 5 REC, 80 YDS


I don't know you tell me nah fukk it I'll tell you,the better team lost this game.................................... ................

[4seasons]

Books clearly comfortable taking LSU $$$$.

They're sitting at +2 / +2.5 now which allows you to buy to +3 or buy a point to +3.5 (does any LSU backer see them losing by more than a FG?). Also teasing LSU now gets you over a touchdown with the hook. Moneyline also now at +120ish.

Also realize the public money comes in today and it was probably going to be 2/3'rds LSU anyways and now it's an even better proposition.

The lure to buy or tease the LSU +2 is done in an effort to save what the Book pays out when LSU wins by 2 scores. Some will figure 2 points could be the difference, and will pay -110. Others will be lured to buy a point or so to make it +3 or +3.5, which will cost you like -130 or -140. Others will be lured to the tease, so they can make it +8, which again will cost you more juice. The Book much rather pay out on -110, -130, -140, than paying out on +120. The Book figures if you take Bama -2 or the -140 ML, buy points or tease Bama, isn't going to do you any good when LSU wins by 2 scores. All the Bama bets then lose. It's truly genius when the Book thinks LSU will win by 2 scores, to not give 2 points to Bama, but to make LSU the dog. Only the folks bold enough to take the LSU ML, will have maximized their gains. Though as you can see, many will be lured to taking the points, buying points and teasing in effort to increase their chance of winning. However, they do so by sacrificing winnings, thus reducing what the Book will have to pay out. To repeat, all the Bama bets lose, and if you take LSU and the points, buy points or tease LSU, you'll see that is was pointless to do so and you just reduced your own payout.

Now look at bodog (or bovada whatever), the most conservative Book around. Do you see their line? Do you see how they're not playing the LSU +2 game. Heck no. They have LSU as a pick 'em at -105 right now. So what does that do? Well for one, they're offering you Bama SU at -115, the by far best Bama ML anywhere. Ask yourself, why is the most conservative book offering the best Bama ML? If you like Bama, you're devouring the opportunity to have them SU at -115. Meanwhile, what LSU backer would bet LSU SU @ -105, when you can get 2 points at -110? There's no Book that will let you buy 2 points for 5 cents. A half a point costs 10 cents each. Thus, they're saying with their arms WIDE open, Bama backers welcome, and LSU backers go away.

Now look at the SBR Sportsbook, another highly conservative Book to say the least. Here they already will give you LSU and 2.5, thus making it even more alluring to those who want points (including the buying and teasing). Though they won't give you +120 on the LSU ML if your astute enough to go that way, you'll get +115. So if you buy a half point here to make it LSU +3, it will cost you -130. Risk 130 to make 100 if you have LSU +3. However, if you put that 130 on the ML @ +115, you'd win like 150 instead of just 100. That's an extra $50 payout for every $130 risked. That is HUGE! And that's what the Books are doing here.

Bowl Contest at Heritagesports has one person who has picked every bowl game right so far. This person's pick for tonight ... LSU! There are 9 listed as tied for second place, with 6 of those 9 picking LSU.

Before Backing Bama Better Beware

[hydrosmak]

The lure to buy or tease the LSU +2 is done in an effort to save what the Book pays out when LSU wins by 2 scores. Some will figure 2 points could be the difference, and will pay -110. Others will be lured to buy a point or so to make it +3 or +3.5, which will cost you like -130 or -140. Others will be lured to the tease, so they can make it +8, which again will cost you more juice. The Book much rather pay out on -110, -130, -140, than paying out on +120. The Book figures if you take Bama -2 or the -140 ML, buy points or tease Bama, isn't going to do you any good when LSU wins by 2 scores. All the Bama bets then lose. It's truly genius when the Book thinks LSU will win by 2 scores, to not give 2 points to Bama, but to make LSU the dog. Only the folks bold enough to take the LSU ML, will have maximized their gains. Though as you can see, many will be lured to taking the points, buying points and teasing in effort to increase their chance of winning. However, they do so by sacrificing winnings, thus reducing what the Book will have to pay out. To repeat, all the Bama bets lose, and if you take LSU and the points, buy points or tease LSU, you'll see that is was pointless to do so and you just reduced your own payout.

Now look at bodog (or bovada whatever), the most conservative Book around. Do you see their line? Do you see how they're not playing the LSU +2 game. Heck no. They have LSU as a pick 'em at -105 right now. So what does that do? Well for one, they're offering you Bama SU at -115, the by far best Bama ML anywhere. Ask yourself, why is the most conservative book offering the best Bama ML? If you like Bama, you're devouring the opportunity to have them SU at -115. Meanwhile, what LSU backer would bet LSU SU @ -105, when you can get 2 points at -110? There's no Book that will let you buy 2 points for 5 cents. A half a point costs 10 cents each. Thus, they're saying with their arms WIDE open, Bama backers welcome, and LSU backers go away.

Now look at the SBR Sportsbook, another highly conservative Book to say the least. Here they already will give you LSU and 2.5, thus making it even more alluring to those who want points (including the buying and teasing). Though they won't give you +120 on the LSU ML if your astute enough to go that way, you'll get +115. So if you buy a half point here to make it LSU +3, it will cost you -130. Risk 130 to make 100 if you have LSU +3. However, if you put that 130 on the ML @ +115, you'd win like 150 instead of just 100. That's an extra $50 payout for every $130 risked. That is HUGE! And that's what the Books are doing here.

Bowl Contest at Heritagesports has one person who has picked every bowl game right so far. This person's pick for tonight ... LSU! There are 9 listed as tied for second place, with 6 of those 9 picking LSU.

Before Backing Bama Better Beware

Every game right ATS or ML?

[Odessa]

Defenses are equal. LSU offense is more diverse. That's what it comes down to.

LT, agree with you, but how can you explain RLM? What they know that we don't?

[Serbone]

This is gonna sound crazy but what are the chances of a rigged LSU win. The BCS will be killed by the media if Bama wins and there's some sort of split with LSU/ Ok St. The BCS has to want LSU to come out with the win here or their entire system loses tons of value and possibly vanishes in a couple years. This would be the ultimate "BCS is a joke, doesn't even determine a true national championship" example. I'm not very into conspiracy theories or believe in rigged games, but if there was a spot where I'd buy it, it would be tomorrow night and LSU winning on a few questionable calls. Just sayin...

VERY, VERY, VERY good point....

A) Bama wins, three teams with 1 loss, LSU beat them last time IN ALABAMA, this is neutral site, so LSU did better, blah, blah, the whole NCAA BCS thing is a farce, OK State slimes the whole process, the media blows it up, dirt, controversy, mud...

B) LSU wins, they are undefeated, The NCAA and BCS looks good. Nice and clean.

[blackberry_juice]

VERY, VERY, VERY good point....

A) Bama wins, three teams with 1 loss, LSU beat them last time IN ALABAMA, this is neutral site, so LSU did better, blah, blah, the whole NCAA BCS thing is a farce, OK State slimes the whole process, the media blows it up, dirt, controversy, mud...

B) LSU wins, they are undefeated, The NCAA and BCS looks good. Nice and clean.

Glad I'm not the only one concerned about this. Still playing Bama but will be watching the refs as closely as the players.

[nj1035]

lol I was thinking the same thing! if you watch lines a long time that should let you know something.

If you've been studying lines one day it should tell you something. It's one simple thing that so many people just can't figure out lol.