SerbOnes Bowl Picks

[Serbone]

BYU on artificial turf bothered me... Tulsa plays on it all yr.

But I liked the BYU front 7 "D", throw-run QB, Tulsa BLOWN OUT in 4 losses, whereas BYU hung in there in their losses... and other things... so far BYU looks awful on "O", I thought they would be OK, it might be the timing of artificial turf with blocking and QB/receivers. QB Nelson looks terrible or is it the WR timing? BYU has had GREAT field position and is losing 14-3. Not good. Maybe they will adjust.

[Serbone]

BYU + 2.5 covers. After ND and Wash debacles, we deserved it. I guess.
Last team to score, covers: how many times has that been the case so far in bowl season???????
When that happens, FOR THE MOST PART, the winner ATS is lucky and the loser ATS is unlucky... usually. Though you can argue sometimes otherwise.
So I am not so proud, though Tulsa made a couple 3rd and longs then threw it into the end zone for grabs, and it worked, to take the lead. So, WTF?

[Serbone]

3* Wake Forest + 7
2* Oklahoma - 13.5

(upgraded OK from 1* to 2*)

[Serbone]

3-1 Friday, BYU wins, Ia St loses, WF wins, OK wins. All 3 wins, the last team to score covered the spread. The Oklahoma running out the clock TD makes up for the Baylor running out the clock TD / Washington loss ATS.
9-8 + 3.4*

early Saturday game:
4* Northwestern + 10

6-6 NW is usually a good "dog" play getting 7 points or more. 6-6 A&M played a superior strength of schedule (RPI, Sagarin) and has been a sloppy favorite this yr, was famous for fading in the 2nd half. A&M finished 1-4 SU, head coach Sherman who called all offensive plays, was fired; then the OC was going to call them, but he left for Fresno. Now the o-line coach will call the plays. What a debacle. This might be, THE KEY. NW got healthy and finished 4-1 SU but is overmatched athletically (if A&M RB Gray plays, he is a big plus for them). However the NW players are a special breed of cat, very intelligent, savvy, and have a very crafty QB Persa who got healthy late in the season, he can avoid the rush a bit and sneak in some points against a questionable A&M secondary. Also NW has a great backup who can run and throw and should get some playing time. NW "D" bends a lot, breaks, too, but they are a live dog against a team that might be in disarray. A&M had a very disapointing season, was ranked in top 10, is close to home but not so hot of a team away from HOME and that 12th man BS, not happy to be there. NW has no real quality wins, but is pesky, a passing dog that does not give up, and is always fired up to beat a big school, and is seeking first bowl victory. I doubt A&M is going to go all out all four quarters.

(Notes: I got NW +10 last night when I first posted this, it is down to 9, 9.5; also, I don't play o/u's much but this sure looks like an over 69.5 if it is good weather)

[Serbone]

3* Utah + 2

7-5 (Pac 12) Utah finished 4-1 and has the MUCH better "D" and has played AF the last few years so it can prepare for the GT triple option.
8-4 GT (ACC) started 6-0 against weak teams but finished 2-4. It's "D" is poor and Utah will be able to run with John White (1,400+ yds) on a pourous GT run "D". After injury to starter, backup Utah QB Hays took over in the first week of October and got comfortable as the year went on, is no dynamo but threw for some good yardage. GT just suspended a starting CB will be replaced by a nickle back.
GT is 0-6 SU in bowls (bad bowl coach?) whereas Utah lost its first bowl SU in 10 tries, last yr, Utah was pounded by a pissed off Boise, had won 9 in a row (good bowl coach?).
Both are coming off season ending losses, that gives the coaches an excuse to push the players a bit, so motivation should be equal.
Better "D", getting points, the running game will be the decisive factor, Utah will stop the run to the extent that it disrupts GT's primary approach to the game, GT will not stop Utah's running game accordingly plus Utah, though conservative, will connect on some quality passes for good gains.

[Serbone]

NW + 10 another absurd ending, last team to score covers, by 1 pt.
Why TF did A&M throw the ball? Run out of bounds?
6 of last 7 bowl games, the last team to score, covers... some were freak with favorites tacking on extra while running out the clock, cover by 1/2, 1 pt.

[dredmahawkus]

yikes I switched from gtech to utah....oops!

you see the ending of the kentucky game today? they were up 13 with 4 secs left 9 was the cover and they won by 7 no lie....it was absurd!

you like virginia tonight? I liked auburn at first....that VT game just sticks in my mind whenever I think of Virginia....but after reading in here I think I am convinced that auburn will have a tough time going from the national title game to chick a lick bowl.

[Serbone]

3* Virginia + 3

Motivation is the key here, it is with 8-4 ACC Virginia, new coach turning around the program, Virginia's first bowl game since 2007 for them, they get a crack at an SEC team, returning national champ, whereas it was a very disappointing season for 7-5 SEC Auburn.
Auburn returned just 6 starters, played a superior schedule to Virginia's, but had a bad yr, their Defensive Coordinator is gone and their Offensive Coordinator is rumored to be leaving.
I doubt they are too thrilled to be there, and Auburn losing their star break away RB Dye really hurts their "O", PLUS their confidence. Their QB's have struggled.
Closely matched teams, but VA "O" is well balanced with RB's Jones and Parks and QB Rocco all contributing; and it's "D" is probably better than Auburns, so grab the points with the motivated team.

[Serbone]

Utah + 2 covers but another ridiculous last team to score covers the spread. Thats 7 of last 8.
I'll take it but do not know if I can "take it" anymore.
I bet Vandy -1.5 (right now 5:10 CST tied at 14-14) and Illinois -3 (up 10-7) but did not post I was away awhile.
They would have been 1* those are two shit games, obviously Ill-UCLA should not be in a bowl and I did not know if Cincy QB could play at 100%.
So both are tight, will be close finishes.

[Serbone]

10-11 - 1.3*

3* Penn State + 7
5* Georgia - 3
5* South Carolina -2.5
2* Ohio State + 2

[Serbone]

4* Wisconsin + 5

[jackmyhoggoff]

Take the fAV's the rest of the way! TREND is your friend.

[Serbone]

Take the fAV's the rest of the way! TREND is your friend.

Agree, generally speaking, dogs early, favorites late...
But you have to handicap each game (injuries, coaching messes, weather, etc).
Favs Missouri-Purdue-NC St-Texas-Fla St-Baylor hit a 6-1 run "mid-early" (AF snuck in or it was 7-0 run).
Last yr favs covered 4-0-1 first 5 games.
Favs in the big bowls, BCS are a good propositon, and you can't count some of the shit bowls they sneak in now after Jan 1st.

[Serbone]

5* OVER 73.5 Stanford/Oklahoma State

[Serbone]

12-15 - 6.7*

4* Virginia Tech + 3

[Serbone]

10* Clemson - 3
(been waiting for this one)

[Serbone]

What a disgraceful call last night on that TD.
The kid secured the ball, kept his hand and arm undereath it, elbow hit the turf before the ball touched the turf, the ball did not move.
Indisputable evidence to reverse the call on the field, my ass.
It SHOULD have been "THE CATCH", THE PLAY OF THE BOWL SEASON.
Instead....

[dredmahawkus]

I want to know what team is going to show up??? I cant get clem/gtech clem/ncstate out of my head when they didnt score! then I cant get clem/maryland out of my head where they score 80 points but gave up 75!

serbone....why is clemson going to win??? I want to take them!

[dredmahawkus]

btw I switched....I had 2 units on WV....switched to 4 units on clem....if this is your game of the bowl season I have to be on them! I only took WV based on line movement.

[jackmyhoggoff]

10* Clemson - 3
(been waiting for this one)

O/64

[Serbone]

I seem to have miscalculated.

[MartinBlank]

I seem to have miscalculated.

You're not the only one.

Books made a killing tonight.