SerbOnes Bowl Picks

MartinBlank · 12-17-11, 03:44 PM

I'm not trying to rub anything in, hell we all lose.

And Wyoming may come back and get the back door cover, but Temple has significant advantages on both lines. Unless they meltdown, I am guessing they will continue to maul Wyoming.

Good luck on your Utah State pick, I am on them as well.

Night-Tripper · 12-17-11, 04:55 PM

Yep... we're all on the same side in the Utah State/Ohio game.

MartinBlank · 12-17-11, 09:01 PM

Serb...

You're killing me. You and these MAC theories of yours.

I am loading up on UL-Lafayette.

Kidding of course.

whatdafuxup · 12-17-11, 09:23 PM

Serb is 0-2 and I'm 2-0 so far. We're both on SDST -4. Hope his luck turns around

Serbone · 12-18-11, 11:36 AM

Shit.
Ohio comeback was a killer, or I was 3*-3*, famous last words... and Utah State blew several early red zone chances, the kiss of death. AND I did not know Utah State had some OL issues, they mentioned that, I fell off my chair.
FYI my "MAC theories" are not "theories", MAC is 2-10-1 in bowls last 3 yrs, last yr NI pounded Fresno on a cold day in Boise, NI is cold weather team, Fresno boys looked like they wanted a blankie and hot chocolate, so I threw that one out.
I sure thought Wyoming could put some points on the board and it would be whoever scores last, but Temple dominated.
UL Lafayette wanted it more and was at home but I stilll thought quality SD St club OL would pound UL and pull away at the end.
I always ask myself, if they played again today? I would bet Temple 5*, Utah State 3*, UL Lafayette 1*.
Linemakers have adjusted to MAC thing... remember SEC went 6-3 in 2006, then 7-2, 6-2 then last two years 5-5 and 5-5... this is not the only consideration I make in these games OF COURSE, just saying.
Shit.

MartinBlank · 12-18-11, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by Serbone

Shit.
Ohio comeback was a killer, or I was 3*-3*, famous last words... and Utah State blew several early red zone chances, the kiss of death. AND I did not know Utah State had some OL issues, they mentioned that, I fell off my chair.
FYI my "MAC theories" are not "theories", MAC is 2-10-1 in bowls last 3 yrs, last yr NI pounded Fresno on a cold day in Boise, NI is cold weather team, Fresno boys looked like they wanted a blankie and hot chocolate, so I threw that one out.
I sure thought Wyoming could put some points on the board and it would be whoever scores last, but Temple dominated.
UL Lafayette wanted it more and was at home but I stilll thought quality SD St club OL would pound UL and pull away at the end.
I always ask myself, if they played again today? I would bet Temple 5*, Utah State 3*, UL Lafayette 1*.
Linemakers have adjusted to MAC thing... remember SEC went 6-3 in 2006, then 7-2, 6-2 then last two years 5-5 and 5-5... this is not the only consideration I make in these games OF COURSE, just saying.
Shit.

Serb. Here's my point, I don't think you can put tons of weight into conference performances from previous years---there are way too many variables to consider.

MAC coaches turnover a lot. Especially in bowl season. I haven't looked at it, but changing coaching staffs...especially when a guy like Mark D'Antonio, or Brian Kelly, or Jerry Kill, or Brady Hoke----get a promotion to another program, it could affect a team's bowl performance. More, the strength of an opponent varies.

The Big 10 has performed horribly in BCS games as of late, but should that change my mind if I think Michigan is going to roll VT? (Just an example).

I'm not trying to get into a pissing match over this stuff, I just happen to handicap differently. Best of luck the rest of the bowl season.

Serbone · 12-18-11, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

Serb. Here's my point, I don't think you can put tons of weight into conference performances from previous years---there are way too many variables to consider.

MAC coaches turnover a lot. Especially in bowl season. I haven't looked at it, but changing coaching staffs...especially when a guy like Mark D'Antonio, or Brian Kelly, or Jerry Kill, or Brady Hoke----get a promotion to another program, it could affect a team's bowl performance. More, the strength of an opponent varies.

The Big 10 has performed horribly in BCS games as of late, but should that change my mind if I think Michigan is going to roll VT? (Just an example).

I'm not trying to get into a pissing match over this stuff, I just happen to handicap differently. Best of luck the rest of the bowl season.

I completely agree exept that I think the MAC is just a terrible league so going against them early against quality confereces (MWC & WAC) was part of my handicapping.
As it relates to the rest of the season, for example, you sure cannot assume The Big 12 will go 2-6 again.
As the bowls progress, though, and you see, say, a certain conference team get pounded by 14-21 pts vs spread, you have to think about that as a factor. It does change yr to yr, I agree.
A couple of yrs ago the Pac 12 was WAY underrated, last yr I noticed Big 12 was failing and went against them. This is good until the final games, when the league champs play each other, then it is not as big of a factor.
For years, SEC dogs were out there, teams that were # 7 in SEC against # 2 in other leagues and won the games straght up.
The linemakers have adjusted, I do not think there are any SEC dogs this yr, though there are some will small lines where I think they are a good bet.
Again I do not disagree... my write ups focused on league vs league yesterday, as others will attest, I look into things deeper than that...

Serbone · 12-20-11, 06:56 PM

0-3, - 6.6*

2* Fla Int - 4.5

8-4 Fla Int has a good RB Rhodes who is a bit hobbled, a great WR Hilton, and a serviceable experienced senior QB Carroll, who is superior to his counterpart, freshman QB Cato @ 6-6 Marshall who was inconsistent, benched, brought back after injuries to others. FI has a good OL, should put some points on the board with consistent well balanced attack, control the game.
If Cato goes down there is no backup, all injured, they use a WR. Hopefully.
FI was about the #3 team in the Sun Belt Conference, which showed well with UL Lafayette winning SU as a dog against MWC SD St, and though Marshall played a much tougher SOS, they got blown out badly by most all of the good teams they played, and CUSA is not top notch in bowls IMO. Marshall was about the 6th best team in CUSA, struggled to nip pitiful Memphis then had to go to OT to beat EC to be bowl eligible, they are happy to be in Florida, treating it as a reward, while Fla Int good young pushing forward coach is selling his team to win 9 games and boast that they have best record of all Fla teams.
FI home crowd will be there, plus any locals will naturally root for their Florida team, not many from Marshall will travel though Marshall has a lot of Florida players; south teams vs. north teams do well in bowls.
Marshall "O" struggled most of the season, I do not see them putting too many points up here against a decent well rounded "D" from FI.

Night-Tripper · 12-20-11, 07:01 PM

I'm with you on this one.

Hoping that Cato has another mental breakdown as he did the only other time he played in his home state.

Serbone · 12-20-11, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

I'm with you on this one.

Hoping that Cato has another mental breakdown as he did the only other time he played in his home state.

Yes, Cato has potential to BLOW UP bad.
I'm worried that FI coach Cristobal is headed for another job, bigger and better things, and the kids know it... even if it isn't announced... sometimes players fall to pieces when their leader jumps ship.
Is he already gone? Do they know?

dredmahawkus · 12-20-11, 07:11 PM

I am with ya too!! GL!

I think I love LATECH tomorrow! what you think Serbone?

Serbone · 12-20-11, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by dredmahawkus

I am with ya too!! GL!

I think I love LATECH tomorrow! what you think Serbone?

Yes, I already have La Tech + 9.
La Tech will be a higher * pick of mine tomorrow.
I usually wait, no matter what I never go more than one day in advance, like to see how conferences play against each other (among other things) but since you mentioned it...

Night-Tripper · 12-20-11, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

Yes, I already have La Tech + 9.
La Tech will be a higher * pick of mine tomorrow.
I usually wait, no matter what I never go more than one day in advance, like to see how conferences play against each other (among other things) but since you mentioned it...

I got my L-Tech last night while it was still 10... glad I did.

Serbone · 12-20-11, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

I got my L-Tech last night while it was still 10... glad I did.

Good move +10, key number.
It is an enigma, you see a great line, like a team a lot, but you always have to worry about last minute developments, injuries, weather, suspensions, coaches rumored to be going elsewhere...
I usually always wait for game day no matter what... very unusual for me to go a day early but like LT so much I jumped in at + 9.

Night-Tripper · 12-20-11, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

Good move +10, key number.
It is an enigma, you see a great line, like a team a lot, but you always have to worry about last minute developments, injuries, weather, suspensions, coaches rumored to be going elsewhere...
I usually always wait for game day no matter what... very unusual for me to go a day early but like LT so much I jumped in at + 9.

It's better than 8...

dredmahawkus · 12-20-11, 08:06 PM

mine was still 9.5 so I bought a half to 10....had to. good thing too its 9 now

dredmahawkus · 12-20-11, 08:19 PM

I understand you not betting early.....I just made a big mistake for betting early! I mean to throw a unit on miss st before it hit 7.....I put it on southern miss by mistake! same line! I hope I like them after I research it on xmas eve!

Serbone · 12-20-11, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by dredmahawkus

I understand you not betting early.....I just made a big mistake for betting early! I mean to throw a unit on miss st before it hit 7.....I put it on southern miss by mistake! same line! I hope I like them after I research it on xmas eve!

I lean to WAC Nevada +7 .. don't like CUSA So Miss... even though they played great game to finish... they are going to Hawaii, their coach is bolting for North Carolina. I hear So Miss wanted to be in another bowl closer to home higher ranked but got passed up. So Miss kids might go out there and get lost in paradise.
Nevada is decent club and is used to going to Hawaii every 2 yrs in league play. Still early but lean is Nevada + 7.

Speaking of early bets and developments, star RB from Iowa is OUT, he was # 2 yds in Big 10, I was leaning to Ia +14 against a mentally screwed up OK team. Now, I dont know.

Night-Tripper · 12-20-11, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

I lean to WAC Nevada +7 .. don't like CUSA So Miss... even though they played great game to finish... they are going to Hawaii, their coach is bolting for North Carolina. I hear So Miss wanted to be in another bowl closer to home higher ranked but got passed up. So Miss kids might go out there and get lost in paradise.
Nevada is decent club and is used to going to Hawaii every 2 yrs in league play. Still early but lean is Nevada + 7.

Speaking of early bets and developments, star RB from Iowa is OUT, he was # 2 yds in Big 10, I was leaning to Ia +14 against a mentally screwed up OK team. Now, I dont know.

Iowa plus the points is still a good bet. OU is probably going to go through the motions. If not Iowa, then the over.

dredmahawkus · 12-20-11, 08:47 PM

wow I didnt know I just threw some on iowa too.....just playing a couple I think will move before I get a chance....iowa was one!! south car another...I want that before it hits 3.

emotions and state of being is so huge in the bowl games.....so many dogs win because the fav is pissed they are in the fruit of the loom bowl.

Serbone · 12-21-11, 10:26 AM

Shit.
Well, another one goes down. Marshall made 3 BIG plays, FI made none.
Star WR Hilton looked like DeSean Jackson until after he scored the early TD, then he was done with a thigh bruise. He came back and played on and off but was clearly not even close to his explosive self. I think that took the wind out of the FI sails.
Marshall had superior SOS and was getting points, but I thought that was irrelevant since they got hammered BIG by all the good teams (Houston, Tulsa, etc) that they played, so I threw it out. Usually, I am a big SOS player.
And QB Cato... I guess all those extra weeks of preparation gave the coach to get the kid to play within himself, which he certainly did... he kept rolling right and was wide open for run or short pass, FI never adjusted, easy pickings, got a lot of FD's.
But it was the 3 big plays, the long fall away TD pass in closing seconds of 1st half, the blocked punt, and TD on 4th and 5 with 50 secs to go, that were the difference.
If they played today, I would go 2* FI again, assume Hilton would be healthy and big plays would be equal.
(I can feel the "fade" trolls coming... HA!...But I really LIKE the next one, have been waiting.)

DIRTYDIRTY · 12-21-11, 10:44 AM

fade city tcu rolls la tech

Serbone · 12-21-11, 11:10 AM

0-4, - 8.8*

5* Louisiana Tech + 9

Motivation is always a key: TCU wanted a BCS bowl and is disapointed, has been to this SD bowl 3 times in last 6 years, but played their two previous bowl in the BCS, overall has been to 7 bowl games in a row whereas Tech is going to only its second bowl game over a long time, they went bowling in 2008, the point being, before that, almost nothing.
Both are conference champs, and Tech must be a bit miffed at being big underdogs, though MWC is considered stronger.
SOS are about equal, 83 Tech, 93 TCU (Sagarin). TCU played more bowl teams, lost to SMU and Baylor, won @ AF, @ SD St, BYU, Wyo, @ Boise by 1. If TCU played a healthy Boise team, I would expect Boise to have won by 13-17.
Tech won @ Utah St, @ Nevada, lost to So Miss, Hou, @ Miss St, by 2, 1, & 6 pts; they had early losses to some quality squads, started 1-4 then went 7-0.
TCU has improved over the yr, lost a lot of key players from vintage squad last year, but still does not have close to the dominant "D" that it did last year. Good "D", though! New TCU QB Pachell has come along very well but don't be fooled by the Boise game, Boise had 3-4 injured DB's but Boise still stacked the box against the run, TCU's forte, and Pachell stunned everyone and threw it up long, up for grabs, and his receivers won every time, numerous 40+ yard passes. Tech's DB's are healthy and physical, give up some big plays but also get INT's. Tech has good DL, so running on them may not be easy; a key. TCU is run first, if Tech can stop the run a bit, that will be huge.
I think they CAN stack the box a lot and get by with their good DB's as opposed to the mental picture a lot of us have of TCU burning the crippled Boise DB's. And Tech has an All American punter.
Tech's QB Cameron can throw the ball, you need that to beat TCU, and have a top notch RB Creer, he was hurt a lot during the year, that hurt them a lot, he is supposed to be ready, but you never know if he will be 100% (FI's Hilton, last night!).
Both have solid "D"'s with a star player, TCU LB Carder and Tech's Cole were both conference "D" players of the year.
These teams are a lot more equally matched than the line suggests, TCU is now a "public" name team, linemakers give them a few points for that... and Tech is a bit underrated, is not a public, "visible team" are a bit under the radar, looked bad record-wise after suffering some early losses.
Neither team is close to home, two southern teams playing in warm weather, maybe a small advantage to TCU being used to the SD surroundings and it is on natural turf, TCU's home turf, Tech plays on artificial... well, that's not good... though also, again, TCU has been there 3 times in 6 yrs and probably feels slighted, wanted bigger and better things. Tech happy to be in a relatively big bowl game... for them.
Louisiana Tech is SOLID, happier to be there, fired up, against a team that may not be too fired up, so take the well balanced squad and the big points.

dredmahawkus · 12-21-11, 02:49 PM

serbone cant lose 5 in row!!!!! I would play this just based on that!!! but I agree I dont think TCU will be too happy to play in the dunkin donuts bowl after just playing in the Rose Bowl!!! I bought the hook and took LA tech +10 and playing 3 units instead of 2 just because serbone wont lose 5 in row!

og4667 · 12-21-11, 03:04 PM

I like La Tech as well, I was reading the RB Creer is out and ineligible for this game though.

Serbone · 12-21-11, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by og4667

I like La Tech as well, I was reading the RB Creer is out and ineligible for this game though.

Are you sure? My update shows Hicks is out and Evans as questionable for TCU (disciplinary), but nothing about RB Creer on Tech.
There was a big announcement last night that KEY RB Coker... from Iowa.... #2 RB in Big Ten... it out for disciplinary reasons.

Louisiana Tech BulldogsPlayerPos.DateDetailsStatusInjur yLyle FitteRB10/18/2011is expected to miss the remainder of the seasonOutkneeRay HolleyRB10/07/2011is expected to miss the remainder of the seasonOutbackRyan WilliamsS11/23/2011is expected to miss the remainder of the seasonOutknee

T-C-U Horned FrogsPlayerPos.DateDetailsStatusInjuryAntoine HicksWR12/21/2011will miss the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday against Louisiana TechQuestionabledisciplinaryRoss EvansK12/21/2011is questionable for the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday against Louisiana TechQuestionabledisciplinaryMichael ThompsonT10/26/2011is expected to miss the remainder of the seasonOutlegTayo FabulujeDT09/01/2011will miss the entire seasonOuteligibilityTanner BrockLB09/24/2011will miss the remainder of the seasonOutfoot

og4667 · 12-21-11, 05:24 PM

yeah I saw Hicks is out but this is what I read regarding Creer

RB] 12/17/2011 - Lennon Creer is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday vs. TCU ( Eligibility )

Serbone · 12-21-11, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by og4667

yeah I saw Hicks is out but this is what I read regarding Creer

RB] 12/17/2011 - Lennon Creer is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday vs. TCU ( Eligibility )

Well that hurts, I did not have it on my two injury sources.
I still like Tech, but not as much, but will stick with 5*.
Since Cameron took over at QB they have rolled, and they are still a solid, motivated club, but if Creer is out that is not good, he is their stud.
Hopefully TCU comes out flat.
I got some + 9 and some + 9.5, it opened originally (briefly) at + 12.5 went to + 10.5 for a long time, then down to + 9 now + 9.5.

vinhmen · 12-21-11, 05:46 PM

I found this article on Creer dated 12/17. Was ready to rock with Tech, now uncertain

Louisiana Tech leading rusher Lennon Creer will not be eligible for Wednesday's Poinsettia Bowl, according to Tech sports information director Patrick Walsh.
Creer didn't play in Tech's last two victories over Nevada or New Mexico State, but Walsh said Creer didn't become academically ineligible until after the season-finale against New Mexico State.

Walsh said Creer has not been practicing and will not make the trip to San Diego.

vinhmen · 12-21-11, 05:49 PM

Eff it - La Tech +9.5. Let's take this one Serb!

Serbone · 12-22-11, 11:03 AM

Wire to wire, finally.
Only 10-10 halftime with Tech 16-7 first downs and 266-144 yard advantage made me nervous, though, Tech turnovers hurt.
TCU finished strong but the turnovers balanced, they finished with close to equal yardage and first downs.

Serbone · 12-22-11, 12:50 PM

1-4, -3.8*

2* Boise State -14

Motivation is always a key, but hard to figure in this one.

11-1 Boise loses one game by one point, with 3 DB’s out against an excellent TCU squad… and winds up in the Las Vegas Bowl. They played UNLV here earlier in the season. They are disappointed, yes, but will they play disappointed or pissed? Boise finished with a 0-6 ATS slide, all as heavy favorites. Last year they were snubbed and smothered a decent Utah team in this same bowl, 26-3, as 16.5 pt favs, got 543 yards to 200, 23-8 FD’s. So maybe they will play pissed.

6-6 AZ State stumbled with a 1-5 SU and 0-4 ATS finish and fired Coach Erickson, though he will be coaching on the sidelines. WTF? Will the team rally behind him or is there something really wrong? Hot head star LB Burfict was benched for awhile in their final game of the season (California) for committing yet another personal foul then refused to return when Erickson commanded. He is on the trip but not sure of his status… will he sit out for awhile, the first half? Unknown. You have to wonder if this is an indication that Erickson has lost the team, and the kids will be flat. But they know their new coach Graham from Pittsburg, will be watching. They will want to go 7-6, huge difference from 6-7.

Strength of schedule goes to AZ State, # 20, compared to Boise’s #75 (Sagarin... not known to be 100% on the button).

MWC is 0-3 ATS in the bowls so far… line makers have caught up with them!

Boise topped a solid Georgia team 35-14 first game of the season in the GA Dome (though I think it would be a different story now, GA was surprised by Boise’s air attack and made a lot of mistakes) then late in the year stumbled 36-35 to TCU, burned by long passes thrown up for grabs against their decimated defensive backfield, beat bowl teams @ Toledo, Tulsa, Nevada, @ SD St, and Wyoming.

AZ State played several bowl teams, beat Missouri (OT), USC (not eligible), @ Utah, and then lost to @ Oregon, @ UCLA, and Cal as they stumbled late in the season.

Weather? It will be in the 40's, a little chilly for the AZ St players, Boise RB's and WR's a bit more used to cold weather game, could make the difference with some dropped passes and / or fumbles.A bit windy, too, makes it colder, Moore does not have as good of an arm but I think Moore will still be able to deal with it better than Osweiler.

It is not a close to home game for either, though Boise went there already, knows the settting, not happy to be there again, though. I think Boise will bring more fans, though not a real factor.

Both teams have excellent QB’s, we all know about Kellen Moore at Boise, he may want to go out with a bang, he was snubbed for Heisman nomination and his pro prospects are questionable (height). AZ State has had some CB’s out and is vulnerable to the pass if they can’t get to the QB. Boise’s running game with Martin is solid, their OL is top notch. I do not see Moore getting sacked if they come to play.

AZ St’s 6’8” QB Osweiler has NFL potential, 300+ yds per game this year and has some good receivers plus Cameron is a solid RB. Boise’s “D” is solid but not stellar,stops the run but has problems with a good passing game, and still has some injury problems at CB (safety is playing one CB), and has not sacked the passer as much this yr as in previous, though it goes against a vulnerable AZ St OL. If they get ahead, they will throw some creative blitzes at Osweiler, if he gets off to the WR's they can get some long gains, if not, Boise gets some sacks and turnovers.

Bottom line is 14 is a lot to lay against a great passer on a team with a better SOS, but 11-1 Boise is a winning organization, I say, they will play pissed, and will want QB Moore and the seniors to go out in style, a loss makes them look like whiners after their coach blasted the BCS system, they want to go 12-1 and tell the world they should have played in a top notch BCS Bowl. Also, I suspect the AZ State kids are not behind Erickson, something is wrong after that 1-5 finish and the issues with Burfcit made me wonder if that is the tip of the iceberg. Did AZ St AD let Erickson coach this game out of respect for his long term service to the game, but should have moved on with an interim?

DJ Dana · 12-22-11, 02:54 PM

Thanks for the write up Serbone, as always you bring a lot of relevant/useable information.

Teased Boise down to -9.5 to be safe but I'm feeling like ASU has packed it in and Erickson is right there with Burfict: low character guy all the way.

Go Boise!

dredmahawkus · 12-22-11, 03:18 PM

thanks for putting in the time to write these up....I was on boise too....should win by 3 TDs or more!