Hawaii -5. Take it to the bank.
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Great write up Pivot. Hawaii small or a pass for me.Comment -
Hawaii got their shit together. The communication has improved as well as the route running.Comment -
Doc Bob write up...thoughts anyone????
SAN JOSE STATE (+6) 29 Hawaii 30 (if SJ St RB Rutley upgraded to probable)
San Jose State is a much improved team in coach Mike MacIntyre’s second season, but the Spartans still lack depth and injuries are starting to chip away at their ability to compete. Most paramount is the availability of star running back Brandon Rutley, who rushed for 519 yards at 5.7 ypr in the Spartans’ first 5 games before having to sit out last week’s loss to BYU with an injured ankle. San Jose State’s other running backs have combined for just 179 yards at 3.1 ypr and the Spartans managed just 82 yards at 3.4 yards per rushing play last week, so having Rutley available makes a huge difference – especially given that backup David Freeman is also out (the healthy backs have averaged just 2.8 ypr). If the Spartans don’t have Rutley then they’ll probably throw the ball more, which is a good thing given that quarterback Matt Faulkner has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play this season despite facing teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. I rate the San Jose State offense at 0.5 yppl better than average if Rutley is 100% but the Spartans would be just 0.1 yppl better than average without Rutley (and somewhere in between if he plays at less than 100%). Hawaii is soft against the run but pretty decent against the pass, so Rutley would probably have good numbers if he was healthy enough to play and the Spartans should still move the ball at a decent level through the air if Rutley isn’t available.
The other important injury for San Jose State is that of top CB Brandon Driver, who has was injured early in week 5. The Spartans were pretty good against the pass the first 3 games with both starting cornerbacks playing (other CB Thompson missed week 4), but they’ve allowed 8.5 yards per pass play the last 3 weeks because their backups cornerbacks are terrible. With just one decent corner the Spartans will have trouble defending experienced Hawaii signal caller Bryant Moniz. Moniz is not having as epic a season as he had last year with more talented receivers, but the Warriors’ attack is still 0.5 yppl better than average and has been better than that the last two games. San Jose State is thin in quality defensive backs and that is not good against Hawaii’s multiple receiver sets and I project the Warriors to rack up 495 yards at 7.2 yppl in this game.
My math would favor Hawaii by 6 points if Rutley is 100% and I get the Warriors by 9 points if he doesn’t play at all. However, Hawaii applies to a very negative 75-175-2 ATS situation and a 32-87-4 ATS situation so I like San Jose State in this game regardless. I would certainly consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion based on the strong situation if I knew Rutley was healthy enough to play at his normal level, but it appears as if Rutley will be a game time decision this week and that will keep me from making the Spartans a Strong Opinion. However, the situation is strong enough that I’d lean with San Jose State even if Rutley doesn’t play.Comment -
Seems too easy.... San jose st. that is. Public all over Hawaii, Line has dropped. Its easy right, Take san jose st. because of the line move. I dunno, something stinks in this game and I will be very interested to see how the line moves as it gets closer to game time. Every tout in the world is going to be over san jose st. This game smells fishy, no doubt about it.Comment -
San Jose ML?
Warriors haven't lost in San Jose since 1997.
San Jose 3-10 SU in past 13 WAC home games.
Hawaii 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record Last two seasons.
I might be wrong, but throwing out Hawaii/UNLV game. Team stayed on mainland and lived out of bags for a week in Vegas. To many distractions in Vegas and obviously they took the Rebels lightly. Hawaii has huge statistical edges in Offensive points scored and passing yards. Nice scheduling edge with Warriors coming off bye and Spartans off b2b road games and slightly shorter week.
Moniz had career game last year against SJST. If SJST can't muster a strong pass rush, he will make this look like a 7-7 passing drill.
My only hesitation is the over, but I believe SJST will be forced to pass when they fall behind. SJST threw two picks last week vs BYU, so it's possible that Rainbow D could put some points on the board?
My bets are down and weighted towards straight bets on Hawaii and teased as a pk with some games on Saturday.
Curious how you came up with your selection of San Jose ML. In regards to points, SJST hasn't put 42 points on the scoreboard all year.Comment -
75% on Hawaii and yet the line drops to 5.5 bet smart folksComment -
Public might be right in this one..........Comment -
Why does anyone care what side the public is on? Does that really factor into your decsions? If so, how's that working out for ya?Comment -
It's homecoming at San jose st. last 2 home games with hawaii decided by less than 7. it's still 3 hr flight from hawaii plus 3 time zones. take sjsu plus the points. and the over.Comment -
I have Hawaii @ -5.5, they should cover, I was thinking maybe a -3 first half bet as well.Comment -
I am still on Hawaii.
1. San Jose State can't get to the passer
2. I believe the "UH sucks when they come mainland" theory to be, largely, a myth.Comment -
San jo also wins because its homecomminComment -
Hawaii up to -7.
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If brandon rutley will for sure play and its 100%, will that be a major concern for tonights game if ur on hawaii?Comment -
couple weeks ago i told myself i wasnt going to bet on hawaii again this year. They do look like the right choice to me, but i will be on the over tonight. maybe a teaser.Comment
