California at Oregon Thursday FB with John Ryan

brahmabull117 · 10-03-11, 04:18 PM

Oregon has won 6 of their last 8 home games (this year and all of last year) by at least 35 points. The only 2 wins by less than 35 was a 21 point win against eventual orange bowl champs Stanford and a 19 point win against ranked Arizona

both of those 2 teams are significantly better than Cal this year, which has traditionally been a terrible road team anyways (2 pt loss to Oregon at home last year and 39 point road loss to oregon the year before, lost 3 road games last year by at least 21). Now I generally HATE laying spreads more than 20 points because that is a very common blowout margin, but Oregon is the one team in the country that will generate leads so big with their updoor tempo that it's impossible to backdoor

Oregon - 23.5/Teased down to 16.5 are both very very safe plays. I think Vegas is giving away free money with this line, Oregon should be favored by closer to 30 points in this game

Oregon - 56
Cal - 17

dozer · 10-03-11, 05:22 PM

thats about what i predict as well.

i feel so strong that oregon scores 50+ thats what i am basing it on. i also feel strong about cal not scoring roughly 30. i see oregon scoring 60 some before i see cal getting 30.

brahmabull117 · 10-03-11, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by dozer

thats about what i predict as well. i feel so strong that oregon scores 50+ thats what i am basing it on. i also feel strong about cal not scoring roughly 30. i see oregon scoring 60 some before i see cal getting 30.

Oregon averages about 56 ppg at home over the last 2 couple of seasons and Cal's defense sucks

I wouldn't be surprised to see them break 60-65 in this game

brahmabull117 · 10-03-11, 07:37 PM

total is at 62

does that mean the team total for oregon will only be 38?? that's practically free $$ right there, their lowest output at home last couple years was 48 against Arizona

brucesmall · 10-03-11, 08:25 PM

I like Oregon here.

I am looking to throw a three team parlay together for around $75.

So far I like Arizona -1.5 Iowa +4 and Oregon -24???
Thoughts and opinions??

dozer · 10-03-11, 08:37 PM

wow...62 really...........im taking that over as well as oregon. no f'n way i lose both, good chance i win both imo. oregon would have to shit the bed and score only like 35 for me to get screwed...... 35 might be halftime lead.

John Ryan · 10-04-11, 09:34 PM

So, I posted another article about the total play and I do like the 'UNDER' for all of the reasons outlined in the article. I will bring up those points in the morning.

Retrospect · 10-04-11, 10:11 PM

Oregon is not the same as last year... so make sure you clear your mind..
I think they are still an explosive team but I don't know if they can get by -24pts

I'm leaning toward the DOG here..

brahmabull117 · 10-04-11, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by Retrospect

Oregon is not the same as last year... so make sure you clear your mind.. I think they are still an explosive team but I don't know if they can get by -24pts

I'm leaning toward the DOG here..

if anything Oregon is better than last year, darron thomas and lamichael james with more experience

John Ryan · 10-05-11, 08:58 AM

Ok.. I just released my 5 star play on California +24 points and you can read the entire report on the front page of the site. I like Cal for a ton of reasons in this game. Here is an excerpt, but please review the entire research report and then let's begin our discussion. I'd like to see if we can get a consensus on the side-total-teaser-first betting opportunities.

Cal Rushing Attack
Thanks to the national media the Oregon rushing attack is well know, but Cal has a solid rushing attack in their own right. They are led by Isi Sofele, who has gained 380 yards on 79 attempts for a 4.8 yards-per-carry and has scored four touchdowns. Cal has had a 1,000 yard rusher in eight of the past nine seasons and Sofele is well on his way to joining that 1,000 yard rushing club. He is averaging 95.0 rushing yards per game ranking him fifth in the Pac-12 and 38th nationally.

A major key to this game will be if Oregon needs to bring safety help to stop the Cal running game. This is the easiest read for any quarterback to make and once the safety is positioned in the box, then Cal quarterback Zack Maynard will know he has man coverage on the perimeter using play action.

Maynard has two solid targets that I think have advantages in man situations against Oregon. Sophomore Keenan Allen (6-3, 205 pounds) has 30 receptions for 498 yards and Senior Marvin Jones (6-3, 202 pounds) has 23 receptions for 375 yards. These two will provide coverage difficulties for the Oregon defense, especially fi they have to us e a safety for run support.

brahmabull117 · 10-05-11, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Ok.. I just released by 5* play on California +24 points and you can read the entire report on the front page of the site. I like Cal for a ton of reasons in this game. Here is an excerpt, but please review the entire research report and then let's begin our discussion. I'd like to see if we can get a consensus on the side-total-teaser-first betting opportunities. Cal Rushing Attack Thanks to the national media the Oregon rushing attack is well know, but Cal has a solid rushing attack in their own right. They are led by Isi Sofele, who has gained 380 yards on 79 attempts for a 4.8 yards-per-carry and has scored four touchdowns. Cal has had a 1,000 yard rusher in eight of the past nine seasons and Sofele is well on his way to joining that 1,000 yard rushing club. He is averaging 95.0 rushing yards per game ranking him fifth in the Pac-12 and 38th nationally. A major key to this game will be if Oregon needs to bring safety help to stop the Cal running game. This is the easiest read for any quarterback to make and once the safety is positioned in the box, then Cal quarterback Zack Maynard will know he has man coverage on the perimeter using play action. Maynard has two solid targets that I think have advantages in man situations against Oregon. Sophomore Keenan Allen (6-3, 205 pounds) has 30 receptions for 498 yards and Senior Marvin Jones (6-3, 202 pounds) has 23 receptions for 375 yards. These two will provide coverage difficulties for the Oregon defense, especially fi they have to us e a safety for run support.

ur gonna lose this play dude, I don't really care about Cal's rushing attack. Oregon's gonna score 50-60 points in this game as they always do, Cal does not have the capacity to score 40 points against a pretty good Oregon defense to keep this game moderately close

Cal is also one of the worst road teams in the country, having gone 1-5 on the road last 2 seasons with a lot of blowouts in that time period. They even gave up 33 points and 600 total yards against Colorado this year

PorkChop · 10-05-11, 09:52 AM

Did any of you watch last year's game At California? Look it up.

Madison · 10-05-11, 10:36 AM

Over

Hi John,

You pegged the total at 72 early. Came out at 62. My first inclination was to tease this down and go over. Somewhere around 52/53. Seems like a freebie.

Jay2k1civic · 10-05-11, 02:38 PM

Oregon is playing at home...did you see the score when they last played CAL at home?... 42-3

Wrestler31 · 10-05-11, 03:08 PM

The over in this game is an absolute steal. See Oregon scoing 68 and Cal scoring 21. Bol

Jay2k1civic · 10-05-11, 03:14 PM

i would only 4 game tease it.... -24 goes to -12 .(true killer)....find another confident play..... i $$$'d my last two 4 game teasers and with the help of Johns picks..(thanks john). ive played one 2game tease and I lost...lost the spread and o/u....so not worth it.... the total at 62?...with the tease it goes down to 50..... ill take that in a heart beat!....I would find a saturday game or nfl game to tease this with...or even the friday game.... perfect example..... BYU +4.5 and under 62.5 (last week game) Lions +14 and once that hit i knew my last would easily make it cash.... Packers -.5 .... anybody taking the phillies tonight?....i sure am.... went 3-0 yesterday

Jay2k1civic · 10-05-11, 03:47 PM

actually teasing the under of 74 seems better.... 8 of last 10 have gone under...and the two that went over was in CALI!

moneymac81 · 10-05-11, 04:33 PM

takin cal and the pts john ryan???????? go back to cocaine...not heroin sir

Brett · 10-05-11, 05:44 PM

lol cal

jjaycuny · 10-05-11, 07:59 PM

took Cal +24 -110 and Under 65 -110

John Ryan · 10-05-11, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Oregon has won 6 of their last 8 home games (this year and all of last year) by at least 35 points. The only 2 wins by less than 35 was a 21 point win against eventual orange bowl champs Stanford and a 19 point win against ranked Arizona

both of those 2 teams are significantly better than Cal this year, which has traditionally been a terrible road team anyways (2 pt loss to Oregon at home last year and 39 point road loss to oregon the year before, lost 3 road games last year by at least 21). Now I generally HATE laying spreads more than 20 points because that is a very common blowout margin, but Oregon is the one team in the country that will generate leads so big with their updoor tempo that it's impossible to backdoor

Oregon - 23.5/Teased down to 16.5 are both very very safe plays. I think Vegas is giving away free money with this line, Oregon should be favored by closer to 30 points in this game

Oregon - 56
Cal - 17

Great analysis. I never mind someone going against me when they have it backed up by concrete facts. Thanks.

John Ryan · 10-05-11, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Wrestler31

The over in this game is an absolute steal. See Oregon scoing 68 and Cal scoring 21. Bol

Do Not get carried away with the 'over. You may prove to be right. But Cal is 23-9 ATS against solid rushing attacks averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game since 1992. That is preparation and truly what does Oregon have to play for? They know they can beat these guys and that is where the opportunity lays.

Also, there has been talk, not in Oregon by the way, the Ducks will look to run up the score after last year's controversial game where the Cal players were accused of faking injuries to slow down the offensive attack. I am serious when I stated that Oregon better be concerned about the two Cal WR, who are both big and athletic.

I just don't see this as a 30 or 40 point blowout. My sim shows a high probability that Cal stays within 24 points.

John Ryan · 10-05-11, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by moneymac81

takin cal and the pts john ryan???????? go back to cocaine...not heroin sir

Well, it may seem that way, but a few years back I had Mississippi as a 25* Titan that walked into the Swamp in Gainesville and defeated the Tim Tebow Gators as 23 point dogs. I am not saying that Cal is going to upset Oregon, but large dogs in Conference play can many times make it very uncomfortable for the over confident home favorite.

Machine Choice · 10-05-11, 08:27 PM

I'm leaning to the dog but not sure yet. I'll have my own write-up later

brahmabull117 · 10-05-11, 08:37 PM

I really think there's 3 slam dunk factors in this game that make it a great play towards Oregon

1)Oregon will NOT take this game lightly, they are very well aware of what happened last year and will not want to risk a close game. It's thursday, it's on prime time tv, Oregon wants to win this by 40+. This is very important on a big spread

2)Cal is an absolutely terrible road team, I don't think Cal backers understand just how bad this team is on the road. They're 1-1 this year on the road with the 1 win being a lucky 3 point victory against one of the worst teams in all of college football (Colorado) in a game in which they allowed 600 yards of offense. In 2 road games this year, they've given up 34 points per game. In 5 road games last year, they went 1-4 giving up 31.6 points per game while losing 3 of the 5 games by at least 21 points.

And I know you said their rush defense is good...but they gave up 197 yards last year at Oregon St, 316 yards at Nevada and 211 yards At USC. This is just a different team on the road, they don't play with anywhere near the intensity or focus as they do at home

3)Playing in Oregon is EXTREMELY difficult even for teams with excellent talent. Stanford has a reputation as a great team that's very physical on both sides of the ball... they finished in the top 25% of teams in the country last year in defensive stats and even they gave up 56 points and a million yards in Oregon.

John Ryan · 10-06-11, 04:12 PM

great facts BrahmaBull. Really good. Can't argue with any of it, but I do believe the line already reflects all of what you said. In other words the current price has discounted all the 'bad news' on Cal. The fact that the line has climbed just one point since opening at 23 1/2 is another sign in my experience that the worst news and facts on cal is reflected with this number. I did encourage those, who were tailing me to jump at 24 1/2 and we are at 24 12 at few books now. I do not think it will stay there long. That is a potential back-door number too that I obviously hope I do not need to win ATS.

As far as the Stanford game, that was just one of those games that got a way from them and the mistakes they made early turned into a mountain of bad play as the score became out of hand. These are still young men - not mature young men with many of them 18 and 19 years old. Emotion is a big thing and it can work against or for these young players when games get out of hand.

I respect all that you have said, I just can't turn away from simulator that has done so well for me for 18 seasons now.

John Ryan · 10-06-11, 04:16 PM

so, on these threads i stand with a 3-1 ats record. Here is a recap of tonight's play on this game.

I like Cal +24 1/2 for a 5* play.
I like 'UNDER' Cal at 66 1/2 for a 5* Play - BoDog has it at 67.. but I had said in earlier comments that I would take 66 1/2

I like teasing Cal and the 'under' for a 5* Play.

I am on-line till game time so i will try and answer all questions and comments. Thanks

John Ryan · 10-06-11, 04:17 PM

Simulator Projection Supporting ‘UNDER’ Play
The sim shows a high probability that Call will gain between 150 to 200 net passing yards in this game. Note that in past games Cal has posted a 22-9 ‘under’ record making 12.1 units per one unit wagered when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992.

John Ryan · 10-06-11, 04:17 PM

Time of Possession
The Oregon offense is certainly one of the best in the country, however they score quickly and their defense has had to play a ton of minutes. This has not mattered at all against lesser competition, but it will be a significant factor in this game against Cal. Oregon has had the ball for just 23:35 in all games played this season. Cal has had a far stronger and balanced offense and have won the time-of-possession stat averaging 32:27 per game.

I believe Cal will run the ball enough to force Oregon to use a safety to help stop the run. Once that safety creeps up into the box, the Cal quarterback Zack Maynard will have man coverage on the defensive perimeter. These are high percentage pass plays and they the Bears will target to their two best WR in Keenan Allen (6-3, 205 lbs., 30 receptions, 498 yards, 16.6 average) and Marvin Jones (6-3, 205 lbs, 23 receptions, 375 yards, 16.3 average). Both of these wide receivers have significant size and speed advantages over the Oregon cornerbacks.

John Ryan · 10-06-11, 04:18 PM

As I stated, it will be the play action pass with man coverage on the perimeter that i expect will be the play that the commentators mention over and over.

brahmabull117 · 10-06-11, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

As far as the Stanford game, that was just one of those games that got a way from them and the mistakes they made early turned into a mountain of bad play as the score became out of hand. These are still young men - not mature young men with many of them 18 and 19 years old. Emotion is a big thing and it can work against or for these young players when games get out of hand.
.

that's kinda the scary thing about fading Oregon in their home building

they just have some sort of an aura in that place where even teams like stanford with a lot of talent, toughness and experience seem to crumble under the pressure and the tempo of Oregon's offense. Cal is not a good team, they're a 4-6 win team that will get decimated against more talented and experienced opponents

and I know you said the line reflects everything we have discussed in this game, but I don't think it does. If this game was played 6 weeks from now with Oregon likely having just 1 loss and Cal having 4 or 5 losses, this would be a 28-30 point favorite for Oregon, which should be the line in this one

that's really the reason why Oregon has been a GREAT ATS team in october in recent years, they play these mediocre teams early and vegas is not quite sure how good either team is so they give a relatively soft line. You saw the same thing last year until Vegas got smart and started putting huge spreads on oregon to cover and they started not covering or just getting a push (looking at their home games against Washington and Arizona later on the season)

great debate in this thread btw, I love a good spirited friendly discussion

jaeguyoon · 10-06-11, 05:07 PM

good points john! I think I'm gonna tease it Oregon -18 Over 59.

fecgp40 · 10-06-11, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

great facts BrahmaBull. Really good. Can't argue with any of it, but I do believe the line already reflects all of what you said. In other words the current price has discounted all the 'bad news' on Cal. The fact that the line has climbed just one point since opening at 23 1/2 is another sign in my experience that the worst news and facts on cal is reflected with this number. I did encourage those, who were tailing me to jump at 24 1/2 and we are at 24 12 at few books now. I do not think it will stay there long. That is a potential back-door number too that I obviously hope I do not need to win ATS. As far as the Stanford game, that was just one of those games that got a way from them and the mistakes they made early turned into a mountain of bad play as the score became out of hand. These are still young men - not mature young men with many of them 18 and 19 years old. Emotion is a big thing and it can work against or for these young players when games get out of hand. I respect all that you have said, I just can't turn away from simulator that has done so well for me for 18 seasons now.

First John, good luck tonight. As I've said before, I've enjoyed your threads all year and you do an excellent job, even if I may go against you from time to time.

I think Cal + 24 has a good shot at hitting tonight, but the play I really like is the Oregon TT over 45. Cal will definitely score some points tonight, but 66 is a huge number. What do you think?

jaeguyoon · 10-06-11, 05:56 PM

good points john! I think I'm gonna tease it Oregon -18 Over 59.