Why South Carolina will win by 21+ today against Auburn
Auburn Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Play: South Carolina -10 (-110) @5Dimes
When handicapping and assessing a weekends card for the first time I look for a three main things to narrow down the list of games. First is MOTIVATION. What does a team have to play for? Secondly I look for PERCEPTION. What kind of image is this team presenting to the millions of bettors in the world? Third is DECEPTION. Is the line on the game trying to influence action one way or another? Once I assess all three of these factors, I am able to make a PREDICTION. Does the story of the game play out in order to fit the betting line. I have found a game that fits all three of these to a T this weekend. There is going to be a ton of ticket REDEMPTION at the betting window for everyone who follows along.
MOTIVATION-
There is a major motivational factor that will be pushing the Gamecocks to success in this contest. Many people may read into this incorrectly. Logical and blatantly obvious motivational factors in this game include, keeping an undefeated record. Finishing off a three game home stand against a SEC opponent with a win. While both may be correct, they are completely irrelevant and meaningless in this case. Not to mention the fact that those two factors play into about 30 other games this weekend. By reading into this game deeper, there is one motivational factor that reigns stronger then any other one could. That factor is coach Steve Spurrier. After the game last weekend (even though it was a victory, 21-3) coach Spurrier came out and APOLOGIZED to fans for a “putrid offensive performance.” In my means of business, a win is a win. In this case, Spurrier is demanding PERFECTION from his offense. It may seem tough to ask for more when you have Senior quarterback Stephen Garcia, heisman favorite Marcus Lattimore and All American receiver Alshon Jefferey on your depth chart. But the South Carolina offense has been far from perfect in its last two home games. Garcia has become very mistake prone. Lattimore had his worst game of the season (and possibly career). Jeffery set a personal high for drops in a game. To think that all of this happened against woeful Vanderbilt. These three superstars are playing with their backs against the wall and well respected and idolized head coach Steve Spurrier in their face. I absolutely love fact that Spurrier went out and CALLED OUT not just his offense but the LEADERS of this team. This shows me that this team does not plan to take its foot off the gas today. In terms of wins and losses, this team is perfect (4-0) but the man calling the shots wants more. I think this demand of perfection will spark a major flame under this team. That challenge has been set and I have all the confidence in the world the Gamecocks will answer, especially against an extremely soft Auburn Tigers defense today.
PERCEPTION-
The perception angle I am betting on here is in regards to the public view of the Auburn Tigers. I think many people are not looking into this team correctly. This happens many times when a popular team (National Champions) are involved in numerous national TV games that are down to the wire/exciting games. Auburn has played two of the top five most thrilling games this year on ESPN. A furious comeback from a huge hole against Utah State late kicked off the season. Then a last minute win against Mississippi State followed in week two. Many people have already forgotten about the Clemson game where the Tigers were picked apart piece by piece because they appeared dominant against the FAU Owls last weekend. The truth is that the comeback driven, shootout minded teams play in well to the public opinion. This opinion gets even stronger when a team from the SEC is paired with it. I also do not believe that people have bought into the fact that this is a really bad team. This obviously is because of the national championship and dominance the Tigers showed last season. Auburn does not rank in the top 80 in any defensive category, period. They are giving up just shy of 500 yards per game and an awful 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They are giving up an 8th worst 226 yards on the ground per game and an embarrassing 4.5 yards per rush attempt. They are giving up over 31 points per game and are tied for worst in the nation on third down. This team is HORRIFIC defensively. This perception angle plays in perfectly with my motivational angle today. We are going to see massive numbers from the South Carolina offense today and hopefully help change the PERCEPTION most bettors have on this Auburn team.
DECEPTION-
The DECEPTION in this game lies in the line, as it always does. I do not know the last time, or if ever for that matter that a defending national champion has been a double digit underdog in a game, period. I can not think of a team to win a national championship in my time to return such a poor team. I can not think of a team to win a national championship in my time to return such a poor team so many people think is a good bet. This line has baited in so much action on the Tigers it is disgusting to me. Talking with a bookmaker I have worked with who I exchange info with each weekend, he is reporting that nearly 7 of every 10 bets is coming in on the Tigers and that almost every 4 of 10 teasers has Auburn teased up to +16.5. When I say 4 of every 10 teasers, I do not mean teasers involving this game, I mean total teasers he has booked this weekend. Trust me when I say, that there are MANY of them booked this weekend. I think this line is set perfectly by the books. Had they come out and set it any lower then 10, there would have been major action rolling in on the Gamecocks. I do not think they could set this any higher. I personally would of sent out 13.5 as I would of loved to have my customers buying this up to 14 and getting buried laying -130 juice. Anytime you see 10 or higher, it makes the average bettor worry about backing the favorite and turns the underdog into a popular bet. I am completely sure that I am on the right side of the DECEPTION here backing the home chalk.
PREDICTION-
Here is how it is going to play out. South Carolina will score at will. Lattimore is going to have a MASSIVE game today. This is CBS televised, this is his Heisman showcase. South Carolina is averaging 41 rush attempts per game. Auburn is giving up close to 5 yards per rush. At home with the motivational factor I talked about, Lattimore goes for over 215. I expect to see major ball protection from Stephen Garcia. His interception prone ways are at question here by a lot of people. Look for short dump offs, and percentage passes from the senior today. This again spells trouble for the Tigers. Auburn has shown a lot of cushion at the line of scrimmage this year. Their secondary is small. South Carolina has a number of options that will create major mismatches. I won’t say it is going to be a big day, but a very efficient day from the passing attack. Auburn is going to score, but not nearly enough. Offensively this team has not put up fantastic numbers besides a few high scoring games this year which inflated their stats. South Carolina comes out and jumps on the Tigers early. I see a 21-10 lead at the half in favor of the Gamecocks. In the second half it is all about ball control. At some point the Gamecocks will be up by 17 points and get the ball in the third quarter. The Heisman favorite in the backfield will take over the game. Look for the Gamecock time of possession in the mid 30’s and over the 20 minute mark in the second half. Playing this game out to the total of 62, I see South Carolina good for six scores today. Ill give Lattimore three, Garcia two and the defense one. Gamecocks steamroll the Tigers today and impress the coach with a nearly PERFECT performance.
South Carolina 42 - Auburn 20.
Play: South Carolina -10 (-110) @5Dimes
When handicapping and assessing a weekends card for the first time I look for a three main things to narrow down the list of games. First is MOTIVATION. What does a team have to play for? Secondly I look for PERCEPTION. What kind of image is this team presenting to the millions of bettors in the world? Third is DECEPTION. Is the line on the game trying to influence action one way or another? Once I assess all three of these factors, I am able to make a PREDICTION. Does the story of the game play out in order to fit the betting line. I have found a game that fits all three of these to a T this weekend. There is going to be a ton of ticket REDEMPTION at the betting window for everyone who follows along.
MOTIVATION-
There is a major motivational factor that will be pushing the Gamecocks to success in this contest. Many people may read into this incorrectly. Logical and blatantly obvious motivational factors in this game include, keeping an undefeated record. Finishing off a three game home stand against a SEC opponent with a win. While both may be correct, they are completely irrelevant and meaningless in this case. Not to mention the fact that those two factors play into about 30 other games this weekend. By reading into this game deeper, there is one motivational factor that reigns stronger then any other one could. That factor is coach Steve Spurrier. After the game last weekend (even though it was a victory, 21-3) coach Spurrier came out and APOLOGIZED to fans for a “putrid offensive performance.” In my means of business, a win is a win. In this case, Spurrier is demanding PERFECTION from his offense. It may seem tough to ask for more when you have Senior quarterback Stephen Garcia, heisman favorite Marcus Lattimore and All American receiver Alshon Jefferey on your depth chart. But the South Carolina offense has been far from perfect in its last two home games. Garcia has become very mistake prone. Lattimore had his worst game of the season (and possibly career). Jeffery set a personal high for drops in a game. To think that all of this happened against woeful Vanderbilt. These three superstars are playing with their backs against the wall and well respected and idolized head coach Steve Spurrier in their face. I absolutely love fact that Spurrier went out and CALLED OUT not just his offense but the LEADERS of this team. This shows me that this team does not plan to take its foot off the gas today. In terms of wins and losses, this team is perfect (4-0) but the man calling the shots wants more. I think this demand of perfection will spark a major flame under this team. That challenge has been set and I have all the confidence in the world the Gamecocks will answer, especially against an extremely soft Auburn Tigers defense today.
PERCEPTION-
The perception angle I am betting on here is in regards to the public view of the Auburn Tigers. I think many people are not looking into this team correctly. This happens many times when a popular team (National Champions) are involved in numerous national TV games that are down to the wire/exciting games. Auburn has played two of the top five most thrilling games this year on ESPN. A furious comeback from a huge hole against Utah State late kicked off the season. Then a last minute win against Mississippi State followed in week two. Many people have already forgotten about the Clemson game where the Tigers were picked apart piece by piece because they appeared dominant against the FAU Owls last weekend. The truth is that the comeback driven, shootout minded teams play in well to the public opinion. This opinion gets even stronger when a team from the SEC is paired with it. I also do not believe that people have bought into the fact that this is a really bad team. This obviously is because of the national championship and dominance the Tigers showed last season. Auburn does not rank in the top 80 in any defensive category, period. They are giving up just shy of 500 yards per game and an awful 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They are giving up an 8th worst 226 yards on the ground per game and an embarrassing 4.5 yards per rush attempt. They are giving up over 31 points per game and are tied for worst in the nation on third down. This team is HORRIFIC defensively. This perception angle plays in perfectly with my motivational angle today. We are going to see massive numbers from the South Carolina offense today and hopefully help change the PERCEPTION most bettors have on this Auburn team.
DECEPTION-
The DECEPTION in this game lies in the line, as it always does. I do not know the last time, or if ever for that matter that a defending national champion has been a double digit underdog in a game, period. I can not think of a team to win a national championship in my time to return such a poor team. I can not think of a team to win a national championship in my time to return such a poor team so many people think is a good bet. This line has baited in so much action on the Tigers it is disgusting to me. Talking with a bookmaker I have worked with who I exchange info with each weekend, he is reporting that nearly 7 of every 10 bets is coming in on the Tigers and that almost every 4 of 10 teasers has Auburn teased up to +16.5. When I say 4 of every 10 teasers, I do not mean teasers involving this game, I mean total teasers he has booked this weekend. Trust me when I say, that there are MANY of them booked this weekend. I think this line is set perfectly by the books. Had they come out and set it any lower then 10, there would have been major action rolling in on the Gamecocks. I do not think they could set this any higher. I personally would of sent out 13.5 as I would of loved to have my customers buying this up to 14 and getting buried laying -130 juice. Anytime you see 10 or higher, it makes the average bettor worry about backing the favorite and turns the underdog into a popular bet. I am completely sure that I am on the right side of the DECEPTION here backing the home chalk.
PREDICTION-
Here is how it is going to play out. South Carolina will score at will. Lattimore is going to have a MASSIVE game today. This is CBS televised, this is his Heisman showcase. South Carolina is averaging 41 rush attempts per game. Auburn is giving up close to 5 yards per rush. At home with the motivational factor I talked about, Lattimore goes for over 215. I expect to see major ball protection from Stephen Garcia. His interception prone ways are at question here by a lot of people. Look for short dump offs, and percentage passes from the senior today. This again spells trouble for the Tigers. Auburn has shown a lot of cushion at the line of scrimmage this year. Their secondary is small. South Carolina has a number of options that will create major mismatches. I won’t say it is going to be a big day, but a very efficient day from the passing attack. Auburn is going to score, but not nearly enough. Offensively this team has not put up fantastic numbers besides a few high scoring games this year which inflated their stats. South Carolina comes out and jumps on the Tigers early. I see a 21-10 lead at the half in favor of the Gamecocks. In the second half it is all about ball control. At some point the Gamecocks will be up by 17 points and get the ball in the third quarter. The Heisman favorite in the backfield will take over the game. Look for the Gamecock time of possession in the mid 30’s and over the 20 minute mark in the second half. Playing this game out to the total of 62, I see South Carolina good for six scores today. Ill give Lattimore three, Garcia two and the defense one. Gamecocks steamroll the Tigers today and impress the coach with a nearly PERFECT performance.
South Carolina 42 - Auburn 20.
