ACC Fans, I Need Opinions on GaTech/North Carolina

[brahmabull117]

And what the heck is up with your avatar? Seriously.

you're not a fan of the most electrifying man in all of sports and entertainment? the people's champ? the brahmabull?? the GREAT ONE The Rock??

[cant call it]

Do you want the opinion of acc fans only , or do you want the opinion of someone who regularly wagers on college football?

[brahmabull117]

Do you want the opinion of acc fans only , or do you want the opinion of someone who regularly wagers on college football?

anybody familiar with both programs

[tarheelfan72]

Anyone still looking for info on this game, the Kansas team Ga. Tech scored 66 on not only lost their defensive coordinator from last year, they also lost both starting DEs, two starting LBs and three starters in the secondary. They also gave up 42 to Northern Illinois the previous week.

[brahmabull117]

Anyone still looking for info on this game, the Kansas team Ga. Tech scored 66 on not only lost their defensive coordinator from last year, they also lost both starting DEs, two starting LBs and three starters in the secondary. They also gave up 42 to Northern Illinois the previous week.

I think you're just upset cause everybody is predicting a solid victory for Gtech



listen brah, if the mediocre offense of gtech from the last 2 years can put up 24-30 points on UNC, then this machine they got going with Washington throwing the rock with tremendous efficiency (you can look up nesbitt's passing numbers form last year, even against bad teams they were never nearly as impressive as washington's numbers) will score 30-40 with no problems

[tarheelfan72]

Gamblers hear what they want to hear I guess and ignore what they don't. UNC had six starters on defense out and five on offense against GT last year and lost by 6. Then this year Northern Illinois puts up 42 on Kansas one week, Tech puts up 66 on Kansas the next. Ga. Tech gets annointed an offensive juggernaut for laying a beatdown on a team that gave up 42 to a MAC team the previous week.

If Tech scores 30 points against UNC this year, they lose.

Reality is most people hear Tech got 800 yards against Kansas on ESPN and think they must be they play, and don't look at anything else. You want info, I''ll give you info. It's just facts. Do whatever you want with them. This is a classic trap game.

I think you're just upset cause everybody is predicting a solid victory for Gtech



listen brah, if the mediocre offense of gtech from the last 2 years can put up 24-30 points on UNC, then this machine they got going with Washington throwing the rock with tremendous efficiency (you can look up nesbitt's passing numbers form last year, even against bad teams they were never nearly as impressive as washington's numbers) will score 30-40 with no problems

[brahmabull117]

Gamblers hear what they want to hear I guess and ignore what they don't. UNC had six starters on defense out and five on offense against GT last year and lost by 6. Then this year Northern Illinois puts up 42 on Kansas one week, Tech puts up 66 on Kansas the next. Ga. Tech gets annointed an offensive juggernaut for laying a beatdown on a team that gave up 42 to a MAC team the previous week. If Tech scores 30 points against UNC this year, they lose.

I actually haven't seen a single expert predict Gtech not to cover this spread


the predictions have ranged between 7 point win to about a 25 point win for Gtech


this is a great website with a lot of success predicting games in the past (you can look up the predictions from last year in the bcs bowl games and they were incredible accurate in terms of the differential in the games)

http://www.cfbtn.com/2011/09/picks.html

They have Gtech winning this by a 47-22 score

[suicidekings]

I actually haven't seen a single expert predict Gtech not to cover this spread

There are a lot of "experts" out there... You trust a data table offering only a final score more than a rational assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of both teams?

[brahmabull117]

There are a lot of "experts" out there... You trust a data table offering only a final score more than a rational assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of both teams?

do some research on that site and it would shock you how accurate those predictions are. They were within 7 points on nearly every one of the BCS bowl games



and in terms of this matchup, I really do like gtech a lot. I think UNC is overrated because their offense has shown very little efficiency so far and their defense has had a history of getting gashed by the gtech triple option (even when they have had superior athletes in the past)


the tarheel fan who is trying to argue against me says that UNC is a lock to score 30+ points in this game...they averaged about 24 points a game at home against 2 terrible opponents in Virginia and Rutgers, how can you tell me they're a lock to score against a much better defense on the road???

[tarheelfan72]

do some research on that site and it would shock you how accurate those predictions are. They were within 7 points on nearly every one of the BCS bowl games



and in terms of this matchup, I really do like gtech a lot. I think UNC is overrated because their offense has shown very little efficiency so far and their defense has had a history of getting gashed by the gtech triple option (even when they have had superior athletes in the past)


the tarheel fan who is trying to argue against me says that UNC is a lock to score 30+ points in this game...they averaged about 24 points a game at home against 2 terrible opponents in Virginia and Rutgers, how can you tell me they're a lock to score against a much better defense on the road???

Much better defense?
Is that based on only giving up 21, 21 and 24 to Western Carolina, Middle Tennesee and Kansas?

[brahmabull117]

Much better defense? Is that based on only giving up 21, 21 and 24 to Western Carolina, Middle Tennesee and Kansas?

well those 3 point amounts don't matter because nearly all the points they gave up in those games were garbage time scores in big blowout situations



my statement was more of an indication on how terrible rutgers and Virginia are. Gtech has about a middle of the pack defense...they returned 5 or 6 starters but they are playing for the 2nd year under Al Groh's scheme so there is a significant improvement to be expected there


Virginia gave up 33+ points in 7 of their games last year and UNC played an ugly game against them after a really ugly game against a terrible rutgers team. I just don't know what you see in your offense to make you think that they're gonna play a very efficient game offensively on the road against a decent defense

[suicidekings]

The point about all the starters being out for UNC in last years game is very relevant. You pretty much need to throw that game out because its not valid in assessing this upcoming game. 2009 was the best season G.Tech has had in the last decade, and while they look good this year, its way too early to start claiming that this team is even better. GT regressed significantly in 2010 after that huge 2009 season, so when you look at the team from a stats perspective, there's really not a lot of consistency to base any projections for this game on.

All I can say about the specific matchup is that overall, UNC has a pretty decent defensive line to combat G.Tech's running game. So far, GT has played Kansas and Middle Tennessee, who both have appallingly bad rush defense compared to UNC, so you have to think that GTs stats are inflated at this point. The points they gave up to Virginia were largely after the game was in control (21-3 in the 3Q). UNC was able to force Rutgers to kick field goals 3 times because of that defensive strength, and the points they did allow to TDs came on the strength of Rutgers' passing game, not the run (RU had 1 net rushing yard). So seeing as we're talking about a very run-heavy offense in GT, UNC seems fairly well equipped to defend their attack.

I placed a fair line for this game at G.Tech -3.5. I can get UNC +7 at the square shops right now, but Pinny/Greek/Bookmaker are holding at +6.5, which in itself is interesting. I still call it a no-play, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

[brahmabull117]

The point about all the starters being out for UNC in last years game is very relevant. You pretty much need to throw that game out because its not valid in assessing this upcoming game. 2009 was the best season G.Tech has had in the last decade, and while they look good this year, its way too early to start claiming that this team is even better. GT regressed significantly in 2010 after that huge 2009 season, so when you look at the team from a stats perspective, there's really not a lot of consistency to base any projections for this game on. All I can say about the specific matchup is that overall, UNC has a pretty decent defensive line to combat G.Tech's running game. So far, GT has played Kansas and Middle Tennessee, who both have appallingly bad rush defense compared to UNC, so you have to think that GTs stats are inflated at this point. The points they gave up to Virginia were largely after the game was in control (21-3 in the 3Q). UNC was able to force Rutgers to kick field goals 3 times because of that defensive strength, and the points they did allow to TDs came on the strength of Rutgers' passing game, not the run (RU had 1 net rushing yard). So seeing as we're talking about a very run-heavy offense in GT, UNC seems fairly well equipped to defend their attack. I placed a fair line for this game at G.Tech -3.5. I can get UNC +7 at the square shops right now, but Pinny/Greek/Bookmaker are holding at +6.5, which in itself is interesting. I still call it a no-play, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

the problem is I don't think you understand just how difficult George Tech's offense is to stop



they played a very good virginia tech defense last year and had 346 yards rushing, they had 308 yards rushing against miami and they had 34 points and 411 yards rushing against georgia. UNC has some decent personnell at the front 7 position but let's not make it sound like they're alabama or LSU. If Virginia can put up 470 yards against UNC on the road, GTech can put up 400 - 500 yards at home against UNC without too much of a problem



the thing is that Gtech had problems scoring in some of those games in the past due to bad execution in the redzone and some terrible passing numbers. Ive watched Gtech in a couple of their games and their passing is just so much better than years past. Washington is a much better QB than Nesbitt and they have some real playmakers at the receiver position. They're usually more productive throwing the ball 10-15 times a game than many teams are throwing the ball 30 times a game



and not only is it just better passing, it's better execution... they do a better job on 3rd downs and they do a great job holding on to the ball and not make those crucial turnovers

[suicidekings]

No one is claiming UNC has an elite defense, but it's substantially better than that of Virginia or Rutgers. Also, specific results from last year aren't directly applicable to this season. You haven't seen the real GT 2011 team until they start facing teams that are in their weight class. I have no stake in the game, but don't be surprised if UNC provides much stiffer competition for GT. The -6.5 spread is inflated and not a good line to bet on.

[brahmabull117]

No one is claiming UNC has an elite defense, but it's substantially better than that of Virginia or Rutgers. Also, specific results from last year aren't directly applicable to this season. You haven't seen the real GT 2011 team until they start facing teams that are in their weight class. I have no stake in the game, but don't be surprised if UNC provides much stiffer competition for GT. The -6.5 spread is inflated and not a good line to bet on.

I don't agree



UNC Has done nothing to prove themselves as legitimate contenders against a good team on the road. Their offense has looked sloppy and their defense fairly soft at times. Expecting everything to come together in their toughest game of the year so far just seems very unlikely



these 2 teams played in 2009 with UNC having 5 or 6 future NFL players in their front 7...and GTech had 406 yards of offense including 317 yards rushing in a dominant victory




watch the game on saturday and you will be very surprised by the triple option. It's a very difficult system to defend even with superior athletes. With washington's deep ball threat now, it's way more difficult than ever. Teams used to be able to drop 9 guys in the box and just leave their cornerbacks on an island with Gtech's receivers. With washington throwing the ball to 6'5 beast of a receiver Stephen Hill, teams don't know whether to play 100% against the run or drop a safety into coverage



I mean you dismiss kansas game as being meaningless...but these 2 teams played last year and kansas won



watch the kansas game last year and the kansas game this year. Pay attention to how terrible Nesbitt looked throwing the ball and how good Washington looked throwing the ball... 2 of washington's 7 passes were deep touchdown throws that were right on the money. Now you can argue the receiver was wide open but that's a throw that GTech QBs in the past would have fukked up and Washington threw it right on the money, led the receiver and allowed him to run with the ball afterwards

[collie]

It's seems your opinion on this is already locked in. Just why are you asking for?

[brahmabull117]

It's seems your opinion on this is already locked in. Just why are you asking for?

the point of these threads is for somebody to convince me otherwise with something that I'm not really seeing





all I'm reading so far is "Gimmick offense will never worked against decent defenses" when gtech's been running the triple option with considerable success against everybody for 5 years now

[AlwaysDrawing]

UNC has a much superior defense, especially d-line than anything GT has faced this year. Is it strong enough to stop the run game? I can't tell you that.

With GT's triple option offense, any QB will have good stats, because they never pass and when they do it's a surprise deep ball. Triple option offenses can be very hit or miss, and if the run game gets shut down, UNC wins the game.

I lean towards Georgia Tech in this game, and this game should be enlightening for what to expect for the rest of their ACC season.

[BarrelORum]

This is my first post because I didn't know this place existed and this thread made me want to jump in. I'm a gambler and a GT graduate. So of course, I'm a big fan of GT football. I typically never take GT or bet against them as I find it a conflict of interest as I can't be bias. Last week I went against logic and took GT.

The tarheel fan has given some good analysis, but he's also missed bad on a few things. First, in 2008 when UNC beat GT (a year we were pretty good), GT turned the ball over 3 times inside UNC's 20 yard line and 4 times total. We were behind 14-7 for most of the game until UNC scored a garbage TD pass with less than 30 seconds left. They hardly handled our offense. We killed ourselves with turnovers which is typical when GT loses. We had over 300 yards of rushing offense in that game. UNC never stopped anything, they got lucky with us putting the ball on the ground otherwise the score would have been 21-7 the other way.

Not to mention that if any person mentions "gimmick" offense just doesn't understand what it is we actually run nor can be taken very seriously. We run a spread offense. We just run the ball out of that spread or flex formation instead of passing it.

As mentioned above, the scores by Kansas, Middle tenn St. and WCU against GT's D have all gone over 20. WCU should never have scored more than 7. One TD was a blocked field goal for a TD and the other was garbage against our walk ons and third stringers. Midd Tenn got two TD's against 2nd and 3rd teamers. Kansas scored against our 3rd team but looked like they were going to keep up with our pace in the 2nd quarter. We made adjustments and totally shut them down in the second half when the first team D was in the game. So if anything while our o stats are bloated, our bad defense stats are deceptive.

Hopefully this analysis will help you make a decision on this game.

I like this game. But I kind of like it because I'm drinking the koolaid. Some of the analysis above is dead on. This is a trap game. Our guys if anything are going to come out flatter as they can't play any better than they did last week. Kansas did give up 42 points to Northern Illinois. UNC turned the ball over 5 times versus Rutgers 0. And they were beating UVA 21-3 late in the 3rd quarter.

We should be VERY worried about UNC. Their stats are deceptive as they are better than the stats say. They have played a much higher quality of opponent than we have so they will be better prepared to know what to expect about the improved talent level both teams will face tomorrow.

I said it after the WCU win. We won't know anything about how good GT is until after this game. Too hard to predict. Its a fun play because any layman's analysis screams "TAKE GT" but the spread is WAY too close.

In my history of betting and it goes back 20 years. When the layman's analysis screams one team... historically it goes in the other direction.

But Al Groh (our DC) historically has a great record against UNC. Between 2001-2009 he was 7-2 versus UNC. In those wins, UVA gave up 27 once, 24 once, 20 once, and never more than 13 the other 4 times. That includes one shut out and one 3 point game.

In his two losses one came his first year of coaching and UNC won by 3 points and UNC scored 30 on UVA. The other one was a 7-5 win for UNC.

Groh's defenses seem to play very well against UNC. On top of that, he's only once had more than 1 week to prepare for UNC and when he shut UNC out, he had 5 days to prepare coming off of Maryland. Groh's defense has averaged giving up 15.2 points per game versus UNC in 9 years.

So I have to think that Al Groh is a major advantage in this game, but knowing our defense, I'm skeptic. We don't have the hauses up front that Groh had at UVA in any given year and we run a 3-4 where you need hauses. We have one good quality DLineman. The other ones are average if that. However, Our LB's are very underrated and so is our secondary. Honestly I think we have the best secondary in the ACC. I also think we have a couple of potential ALL ACC LB's. The problem for us is that we have not been able to get pressure without blitzing a LB.

That said, our offense is going to score points. Some of my thoughts on this years GT team versus past Paul Johnson coached GT teams is:

1.) Our oline is playing more cohesive than I've ever seen them play at this point in the season. They look like past GT teams towards the end of the season when we were good. In the past we haven't looked like we know what is going on at the LOS and now its like everyone knows exactly their responsibilities.

2.) Tevin Washington is a better QB to me than Nesbitt and has limited turnovers. This has allowed PJ to open up the playbook and spread the field. Tevin to me has not proved he can run the ball as effectively as NEsbitt however.

If you look at past games against UNC, PJ has run the ball very heavily with Nesbitt on the corners. UNC has always focused on shutting down the outside whereas a lot of teams key on the inside. When people key on our outside they are hoping to create turnovers.

Anyway, I like this game too but again I'm drinking the koolaid. GT has lived off the big play and lots of them. My heart says we're going to crush the Heels, but my head says we should win in a tight one.

[brahmabull117]

To guy above me, u gotta admit that washington is a way way wayyy better passer than nesbitt. The 2 deep throws he made vs kansas were perfect throws that nesbitt would have fukked up

[BarrelORum]

To guy above me, u gotta admit that washington is a way way wayyy better passer than nesbitt. The 2 deep throws he made vs kansas were perfect throws that nesbitt would have fukked up

Washington throws a catchable ball. Nesbitt threw bullets no one could catch. It didn't help that our receiving corp last year was young and couldn't catch a cold if they played naked in the snow. Nesbitt was a better passer than people gave him credit for, but Tevin Washington between the two throws a better ball. Tevin though is no where near the runner that Nesbitt is and he doesn't read the mesh as well. The difference is Tevin has a better oline in front of him than Nesbitt did.

[CPJFTW]

Did you watch what Carl Torbush did to you last year when Kansas beat you? Well he retired in the off season. For those of you who don't know who that is, it's UNC's former head coach, and Kansas defensive coordinator last year. Basically, Ga. Tech rolled a new DC who had never seen their gimmicks.

P.S. - We have 6 NFL players in the front 7, and none of them are suspended this time.

P.S.S. - Kansas was 3-9 last year, but beat the gimmick offense.

Are you serious kid?

UVA yards per play this season:
William & Mary: 496 yds, 83 plays, 5.98 ypp
Indiana: 360 yds, 70 plays, 5.14 ypp
UNC: 468 yards, 75 plays, 6.24 ypp

UVA rushing vs UNC:

Total: 170 yards, 34 attempts, 5.0 ypcarry
Leading rusher: K Parks (who? some freshman), 98 yards, 14 carries. An amazing 7 SEVEN yards per carry against that NFL defense. He only averaged 3.4 yards with 11 carries against an underwhelming indiana D...

2nd leading rusher: Jones, 8 for 39, 5 yards per carry.....

But I do not anticipate a problem putting up some points against this defense. Cream puffs are scoring against their defense.

Actually, you mean cream puffs are scoring against GA techs 2nd and 3rd team defense. The 1st team D has only played 6 quarters....The 2nd and third team have given up 24 points in the 4th quarter...which still ranks top 50 in the nation. They also gave up a TD from a turnover on the two yard line. Take out those, and they are flirting with a top 25 defense, which is pretty amazing, even against creampuffs, for a team that was ranked #953928475230529305 in defense last year....On another note, Groh's defense has given up an average of 15 points per game versus UNC in 9 years. Groh has some time at GT under his belt, and some guys on the field. While the GT defense always sucks, I don't think it comes close to sucking as bad as it did, so far, last year and the year before.

I see GT winning, in a close, competitive boring game of grueling possessions...Hard nose GT running, and dink and dunk 80% rate UNC passing...

I don't think either team breaks 30 points, I think 28-21 is a likely outcome.

On another note, who wants to take bets on whether or not GT scores on the first play under center for the 4th consecutive game?

[VTranX]

Taking GT, play of the day.

[CPJFTW]

Ok,

putting my money where my mouth is. Let's see how it goes...

(also...thinking about UNC for the 1st half play, 3 1/2 is tempting knowing GT's 1st half defense......thoughts on that, guys???)

[brahmabull117]

Are you serious kid? UVA yards per play this season: William & Mary: 496 yds, 83 plays, 5.98 ypp Indiana: 360 yds, 70 plays, 5.14 ypp UNC: 468 yards, 75 plays, 6.24 ypp UVA rushing vs UNC: Total: 170 yards, 34 attempts, 5.0 ypcarry Leading rusher: K Parks (who? some freshman), 98 yards, 14 carries. An amazing 7 SEVEN yards per carry against that NFL defense. He only averaged 3.4 yards with 11 carries against an underwhelming indiana D... 2nd leading rusher: Jones, 8 for 39, 5 yards per carry..... Actually, you mean cream puffs are scoring against GA techs 2nd and 3rd team defense. The 1st team D has only played 6 quarters....The 2nd and third team have given up 24 points in the 4th quarter...which still ranks top 50 in the nation. They also gave up a TD from a turnover on the two yard line. Take out those, and they are flirting with a top 25 defense, which is pretty amazing, even against creampuffs, for a team that was ranked #953928475230529305 in defense last year....On another note, Groh's defense has given up an average of 15 points per game versus UNC in 9 years. Groh has some time at GT under his belt, and some guys on the field. While the GT defense always sucks, I don't think it comes close to sucking as bad as it did, so far, last year and the year before. I see GT winning, in a close, competitive boring game of grueling possessions...Hard nose GT running, and dink and dunk 80% rate UNC passing... I don't think either team breaks 30 points, I think 28-21 is a likely outcome. On another note, who wants to take bets on whether or not GT scores on the first play under center for the 4th consecutive game?

GT only scoring 28 points seems very unlikely in this one. I got them scoring 30-35 bare minimum here

[CPJFTW]

GT only scoring 28 points seems very unlikely in this one. I got them scoring 30-35 bare minimum here

I actually took the under heavily... While I think GT wins past the spread, I don't see that much offense in this game as a whole. I think GT makes a few mistakes and turnovers, but still wins by 10. I just don't see this game going past 58, as UNC will slow down the quick scoring GT is accustomed to this year...


(I mean, surely they will slow it down, averaging 12 yards per carry, and 20 yards per completion, with 10 or 12 50+ yard TDs surely just can't continue, though I hope it does, as a GT fan....)

I'm playing this game every way from sunday, so I'm covered regardless unless GT loses....with my luck....who knows....

[boss_of_um]

I am not trying to be different just for the sake of disagreeing but give me the under and UNC +7.

[jonijesjusja]

I'm on GA Tech -6.5

[CPJFTW]

Ok, so I lost the under. I hedged the over, and the points a little when I 2nd guessed myself. GT also didn't cover the -7...No big deal, glad GT won. My parlays hit in a big way anyways. Maryland, LOL, just...LOL Being an ACC fan, I knew what to do, see below.

13-2-1 for saturday...

Proof I put money where my mouth was: