NIU/Fresno (Discussion)

[Sunde91]

Mods, change title to Fresno + Write-Up, thanks.

NIU is a favorite for on-paper reasons, everything else is totally against them.

In NIU's favor, they have a little better margin of victory ranking (105 to Fresno's 56) and better Total O/D, but their SOS is 122 and Fresno's 82, and they play in worst FBS conference in the MAC, so stats are pretty meaingless.

I guess that is why they are technically favored, but I think Fresno has a VERY good chance to win SU.

1) NIU 17 point fav in MAC champ and lost. Obvious let down. If you want an example, look at another weakass MAC school in 2008 Ball State, who got upset as 13 pointish favs in MAC title game to Buffalo, and went on to lose 45-13 to Tulsa in Bowl Game.

2) NIU lost their Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Defensive Coordinator. They just lost MAC, now they're going to respond to new coach with new coordinators in Boise fuking Idaho??? How is NIU the favorite?

3) Fresno and Pat Hill have lost last two bowl games in heartbreak fashion, but I think he has his team focused now to get win over vulnerable NIU. They finished strong with win over Illinois and team will be ready here.

4) Fresno has 2 year starting Senior QB in Ryan Colburn, who will be looking to impress scouts and go out with a with a win. Miami threw on NIU for 333. Colburn has 2500 yds this year, 21 TD, 9 INT, 62% completion and can do damage here.

5) Of 120 FBS schools, Fresno has 56th SOS to NIU's 105th.

6) In 2007, Fresno won the Humanitarian Bowl In Boise over GT 40-28. This will be the 4th time in 4 seasons Fresno has played in Boise; they are accustomed to field and Boise weather in December. Fresno is also a relatively close 700 miles from Boise, so they should get a good number of Fresno fans to travel, and Boise fans will cheer for Fresno, so quasi home field advantage.

7) Fresno has a stout DLine that can shut down NIU run game. WAC defensive player of year was DLineman Chris Carter with 11 sacks. Logan Harrel also had 10 sacks. If Fresno can stack box and stop run, it's over for NIU offense; this is what we saw Miami do against them.

8) MAC sucks, MAC sucks, MAC sucks. Worst FBS conference and it's not even close. 0-12 last 12 bowl games. NIU just lost to South Florida 27-3 last year. NIU rolls MAC, but lost to Iowa State and Illinois (Fresno beat Illinois fairly good) with their best win being over Temple..

And not that it is of utmost importance, but the action is pretty even for this game. Seems like everyone thinks Fresno is the "square" play, but 54% favor NIU at Sportsbook.com, 52% on Fresno @ SBRodds, and 51% on NIU at covers.

Fresno looks like the play of the bowl season here.

Fresno ML +110

[beerman2619]

weather might play a factor in this game with 2 to 4 inches of snow expected.

[jking0606]

Got 2 units on fresno st. ML

[Sunde91]

Don't know why I titled this as a "discussion". This is basically write-up for STRONG play on Fresno. Mods, let's change this to "Fresno + Write-up".

Sooo many angles it's basically best play of bowl season.

[raidersfan]

Nice write up, I'm locked in with Fresno BIG.

[empty cookie jar]

1) Hard to buy into the UNI letdown factor when they have a chance to set the school record in wins.

2) UNI's interim coach was FBS assistant coach of the year in 2007 and has been retained in his same position (linebacker coach) under the new regime. UNI still has 10 members of its coaching staff, including every position coach. Also, the seniors on this team experienced a coaching change a few years ago and have readily taken a leadership role for the younger guys. Do a couple minutes of research on the interim coach (ain't even gonna try to spell his name), I think you will be impressed not only by his resume, but with the respect and loyalty his players and the UNI higher ups have for him.

3) Fresno has lost 2 straight bowl games to a pair of 6-6 teams from the MWC who had not won a bowl game in 5 and 7 years respectively, and those 2 games they gave up an average of 300 yards rushing. Fresno barely squeaked by a 6-6 Illinois team -- in fact, Pat Hill decided to go for it on 4th and inches to avoid giving Illinois the ball back. Not to mention they allowed over 300 rushing yards.

4) Depending on how much a factor the weather is, Colburn may be severely limited on a wet field, and on the same field where he was limited to just 6 of 23 passing. UNI QB Harnish is no slouch -- not only is he the 2nd leading rusher on the 7th best rushing team in the country, he ranks in the top 20 in pass efficiency, completes 65% of his passes, and has 20 TDs to just 5 interceptions.

5) SOS doesn't mean shit when you get your ass kicked by every good team you face. UNI beat Temple -- name a better win for Fresno, who struggled to beat the bottom feeders of the WAC -- they needed a last second score to survive Idaho and had to rally to beat Louisiana Tech. Hell, Fresno even struggled to get by Cal Poly at home. During its win streak prior to its upset loss in the conference title game, UNI won its games by an average of 30 points, including wins over a pair of 8-4 clubs. In fact, of the FBS teams UNI beat, those teams won a combined 34% of their games -- of the 7 FBS teams Fresno beat, their opponents won 32% of their games. Fact is, Fresno failed to compete in all but one (nevada) of its big games and were CRUSHED by an Ole Miss team which had just lost back to back home games against Jacksonville St. and Vandy (the final was 55-38, but it wasn't that close) and would go on to win just TWO more games after beating up on Fresno. Again, of these 2 teams, UNI is the only one which has actually done something.

6) True, the weather is calling for 35 degrees and snow. Coming from Dekalb, Ill., UNI will see your little snow puffies and raise you a blizzard. True, Fresno won the Humanitarian Bowl the last time they were in it, but they were coming off a season in which they failed to make a bowl and facing a Ga. Tech team that didn't care. They did it in front of just 27,000 fans -- yeah, nice home field advantage when the fans who show up don't decide on who they're cheering for until the 4th quarter.

7) True, Fresno had 37 sacks on the season and have the WAC defensive player of the year. Take a look at how many sacks this team had against Boise, Nevada, and Ole Miss -- these numbers were racked up against the likes of San Jose and Louisiana Tech and New Mexico St. UNI has allowed just 12 sacks this season.

The WAC is still the WAC, and fact is Fresno is the WAC's #4

[Richards]

Earlier in the year I really liked the intangibles NIU had, character, discipline, not making mistakes. I attribute a lot of this to coach Kill. Now that he's gone, I can't help wondering how much will carry through, and how much they will lose.

If Kill was still NIU coach I'd be making a play on them today. Not so sure now. Pat Hill is no chump as a coach either. Tough one to handicap I'd say.

[DIRTYDIRTY]

fresno st bulldogs lets get it fresno BOL

[firehoyt]

Why take the ML instead of the +1.5?!

[Poppa Catfish]

1)
3) Fresno has lost 2 straight bowl games to a pair of 6-6 teams from the MWC who had not won a bowl game in 5 and 7 years respectively, and those 2 games they gave up an average of 300 yards rushing. Fresno barely squeaked by a 6-6 Illinois team -- in fact, Pat Hill decided to go for it on 4th and inches to avoid giving Illinois the ball back. Not to mention they allowed over 300 rushing yards.

Damn you make a very excellent point, they did only squeak by 6-6 Illinois (with Fresno not having their starting rb), I really wonder what Northern Illinois could do against a 6-6 Illinois team. Its a shame that we will never know

[Poppa Catfish]

I might add it was awesome to see that UNI crushed the 5-7 Big 12 team that they faced in their opener

[burgaweddie]

Northern Illinois will roll the Bulldogs, the weather will be in Northern Illinois favor HUGE, they play outdoors in ILLINOIS, ( COLD AS SHIT ) Fresno plays in warm weather, shit see the way they played Boise in the cold at this stadium ? Northern Illinois showed up flat last game in a game they were supposed to blow out the competition, they will not be flat today.

[dolphinvann]

Inside the numbers, the money movement is showing big numbers moved on fresno on the 14th. Massive amounts of cash moving the number from n illi minus 2/2.5 to pick. This occurred in a short window of time, look for yourselves. That was not joe public money, Im just saying. Any thoughts?

[MTek]

Why take the ML instead of the +1.5?!

Better payout thats why...even money on the ML...no juice
How many CFB games do you win lose by 1.5 points?

Nice Avatar BTW

N. Ill is excellent at home...not so great on the road, they sh*t the bed in the MAC championship as a huge favorite giving up their right to an indoor game

If my memory serves Fresno hung and played well for most of the game against Boise...it was far from an early blow-out, Boise built up the lead steadily as the game went on

I think this is one of the easier bowl games to cap...remember were talking about the MAC...which is 1 step of from JV ball ... IMO

Good luck to all, either way

[walkingdude2]

SOS doesn't mean shit Really??? As long as you don't use it primarily ...

Both teams not just Fresno lost their last two bowl games

So Fresno gets their butt kicked by Boise I wonder what would happen if NIU played Boise? Don't think NIU would of handled Nevada nearly as well as Fresno did.

NIU has played no one and were exposed by Miami Ohio. They lost their head coach and it may be a little chaotic.

The game is played in Boise, a Fresno rivalry and Boise fans love Pat Hill. All the praise he lays on Boise he may be more popular there than Fresno.

It will be like a home team crowd for Fresno.

The only team both Fresno and NIU played was Illinois. Not that it means all that much. However Niu lost and Fresno won.

I like Fresno with the slight upset.

[MartinBlank]

I am all over Fresno State. This is my play for the weekend.

I have tried to cap this game from every angle possible, and it is tough to make a case for NIU.

If the Fresno State team that beat Illinois shows up, they are going to win this game convincingly. Bulldogs by a touch.

Good luck to all.

[Sunde91]

1) Hard to buy into the UNI letdown factor when they have a chance to set the school record in wins.

2) UNI's interim coach was FBS assistant coach of the year in 2007 and has been retained in his same position (linebacker coach) under the new regime. UNI still has 10 members of its coaching staff, including every position coach. Also, the seniors on this team experienced a coaching change a few years ago and have readily taken a leadership role for the younger guys. Do a couple minutes of research on the interim coach (ain't even gonna try to spell his name), I think you will be impressed not only by his resume, but with the respect and loyalty his players and the UNI higher ups have for him.

3) Fresno has lost 2 straight bowl games to a pair of 6-6 teams from the MWC who had not won a bowl game in 5 and 7 years respectively, and those 2 games they gave up an average of 300 yards rushing. Fresno barely squeaked by a 6-6 Illinois team -- in fact, Pat Hill decided to go for it on 4th and inches to avoid giving Illinois the ball back. Not to mention they allowed over 300 rushing yards.

4) Depending on how much a factor the weather is, Colburn may be severely limited on a wet field, and on the same field where he was limited to just 6 of 23 passing. UNI QB Harnish is no slouch -- not only is he the 2nd leading rusher on the 7th best rushing team in the country, he ranks in the top 20 in pass efficiency, completes 65% of his passes, and has 20 TDs to just 5 interceptions.

5) SOS doesn't mean shit when you get your ass kicked by every good team you face. UNI beat Temple -- name a better win for Fresno, who struggled to beat the bottom feeders of the WAC -- they needed a last second score to survive Idaho and had to rally to beat Louisiana Tech. Hell, Fresno even struggled to get by Cal Poly at home. During its win streak prior to its upset loss in the conference title game, UNI won its games by an average of 30 points, including wins over a pair of 8-4 clubs. In fact, of the FBS teams UNI beat, those teams won a combined 34% of their games -- of the 7 FBS teams Fresno beat, their opponents won 32% of their games. Fact is, Fresno failed to compete in all but one (nevada) of its big games and were CRUSHED by an Ole Miss team which had just lost back to back home games against Jacksonville St. and Vandy (the final was 55-38, but it wasn't that close) and would go on to win just TWO more games after beating up on Fresno. Again, of these 2 teams, UNI is the only one which has actually done something.

6) True, the weather is calling for 35 degrees and snow. Coming from Dekalb, Ill., UNI will see your little snow puffies and raise you a blizzard. True, Fresno won the Humanitarian Bowl the last time they were in it, but they were coming off a season in which they failed to make a bowl and facing a Ga. Tech team that didn't care. They did it in front of just 27,000 fans -- yeah, nice home field advantage when the fans who show up don't decide on who they're cheering for until the 4th quarter.

7) True, Fresno had 37 sacks on the season and have the WAC defensive player of the year. Take a look at how many sacks this team had against Boise, Nevada, and Ole Miss -- these numbers were racked up against the likes of San Jose and Louisiana Tech and New Mexico St. UNI has allowed just 12 sacks this season.

The WAC is still the WAC, and fact is Fresno is the WAC's #4

- Interim assistant coach of the year, there's an award for that and it matters here? Would you rather have a solid coach established for 13 years, or an "interim coach of the year" scrambling with about 2 weeks to prepare for a bowl game with LBs coach having to become DC and RBs coach having to become OC?

- Temple is not only considered a good win, but a better win than Illinois?

- Losing @ Ole Miss is terrible (fyi, SEC is the perennial best conference and any road game there is respectable), but losing to Illinois (Fresno already beat) and Iowa State is fine?

- SOS means nothing? And I'll take playing good teams (Boise, Nevada) over playing 0 good teams (NIU).

- "WAC is still the WAC", as if to say a non-AQ conference with 3 ranked teams is bad, while you ignore MAC and its 0 ranked teams and it being the worst FBS conference, 0-12 in bowls.

I don't know if this is a troll or what, but we will see soon who wins